Fourth Down Data
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MEM

Memphis

TigersBalanced
American Conference7-6#32 (+4.19)

Grades

Percentile grades against every FBS team this season — 99 is best. Curved so an average team reads C, not F.

76· BOverall
Offense
77· BRating
65· CPer play
65· CConsistency
46· CBig plays
Defense
59· CRating
56· CPer play
38· DConsistency
Situational
84· BRed-zone O
47· CRed-zone D
86· B3rd down O
73· B3rd down D
How grades work →

Analytical Fingerprint

SS-native team profile — opponent-adjusted and garbage-filtered EPA, success, and explosiveness.

Opp-Adj Offense
+0.049
Opp-Adj Defense
+0.067
higher = better
Offensive EPA/play
+0.035
Defensive EPA/play
-0.041
lower = better
Off Success Rate
48.4%
Def Success Rate
46.4%
allowed · lower = better
Explosive Rate
23.4%
pass EPA > 1.0 · rush > 0.8
Explosive Allowed
22.0%
lower = better
Net EPA/play
+0.076
net · higher = better
Recent EPA Trend
+0.097
last 3 weeks
Points / Drive
2.65

Special Teams

Opponent-adjusted special-teams component of the Final Rating, in expected points per game — positive = better. The four units sum to the net.

Net ST Rating
+0.27
expected pts/game
Kicking
+0.02
own kicking game
Kick Defense
+0.43
vs opponent kicks
Returns
+0.87
own return game
Return Defense
-1.06
vs opponent returns

Performance vs Perception

Our opponent-adjusted model rank vs. how others rate this team. Descriptive — where the model and the consensus disagree.

Model Rank
#32
opponent-adjusted strength
AP Poll
NR
—
Market (Vegas)
#58
model 26 higher
Recruiting Rank
#64
model 32 spots higher
1 blue-chip recruits

Peer Context

Where Memphis ranks among all FBS teams in 2022 (percentile).

Opp-adjusted offense
69th
Opp-adjusted defense
77th
Offensive EPA/play
65th
Defensive EPA/play
57th
Offensive success rate
70th
Explosiveness
46th
Defensive havoc
16th
Points per drive
79th

Historical Fingerprint

Most statistically similar team-seasons, 2017–2025, by the same 44-feature profile The Archive uses. Descriptive context, not a forecast.

1Ball State2020OA +0.028 / +0.019similar: TD drive rate, takeaway rate, passing offense3872Iowa State2024OA +0.039 / +0.005similar: offensive success rate, passing offense, defensive EPA3683Fresno State2023OA +0.055 / -0.018similar: TD drive rate, pass defense, passing offense3644Texas2020OA +0.039 / -0.001similar: defensive EPA, takeaway rate, passing offense3565Kansas State2022OA +0.082 / +0.085similar: offensive EPA, TD drive rate, defensive EPA353

2022 Schedule & Results

13 games

WkOpponentScoreW/LSpreadATSTotalO/U
1@ Mississippi State23-49L+16.0L57O
2@ Navy37-13W-4.5W49.25O
3vs Arkansas State44-32W-14.5L64O
4vs North Texas44-34W-12.5L70O
5vs Temple24-3W-2.0L57.5O
6vs Houston32-33L----
7@ East Carolina45-47L+5.0W58O
8@ Tulane28-38L+7.0L56.5O
10vs UCF28-35L+3.5L58.5O
11vs Tulsa26-10W----
12vs North Alabama59-0W----
13@ SMU31-34L+4.5W69.5U
18@ Utah State38-10W----

Betting Profile

ATS Record
6-6
50.0%
O/U Record
8-4
66.7%
Straight Up
7-6
53.8%
Home ATS2-4
Away ATS4-2
Favorite ATS4-3
Underdog ATS2-3
Last 5 ATS
WLWW
Full ATS log & splits →
Graded against consensus market lines (median across multiple sportsbooks). Games the market never lined — mostly early-season non-FBS matchups — are excluded from ATS and O/U records; individual games may grade differently than closing-line sources.

Situational Profile

Situational EPA percentile across 8 phases (the larger the shape, the more dominant). Within-FBS ranks.

Pass Off80thRush Off72thRed Zone Off84th3rd Down Off87thPass Def60thRush Def72thRed Zone Def47th3rd Down Def73th
SituationOFF EPAOFF RankDEF EPADEF Rank
Overall+0.07579th-0.06970th
Red Zone+0.14384th-0.00347th
Third Down+0.32187th-0.07173th
No Garbage Time+0.02862th-0.04659th
First Half-0.00647th-0.05562th
Second Half+0.15394th-0.08479th
Early Downs+0.01965th-0.03251th
Passing Downs+0.13580th-0.03860th
Standard Downs+0.04672th-0.08672th
Goal to Go+0.26988th-0.30482th

Style & Tendencies

Pass 48.0%Rush 52.0%
Havoc/Game
10.8
Havoc Rate
15.0%
TO Margin
+0.5
Explosive/G
15.1
Yards/Game
422.5
Pts/Drive
2.65
3rd Down%
45.4%
3&Out%
18.8%

Team Statistics

2022 season totals across 13 games — Memphis vs. the combined line of every opponent in those games.
StatMemphisOpponents
Scoring
Points459338
Points / Game35.326.0
First Downs
Total293252
Rushing11694
Passing155140
Penalty2218
Rushing
Attempts493449
Yards1,8511,587
Yards / Carry3.83.5
Yards / Game142.4122.1
Touchdowns3017
Passing
Attempts455449
Completions291282
Completion %64.0%62.8%
Yards3,6413,137
Yards / Attempt8.07.0
Touchdowns2324
Interceptions816
Passer Rating144.34132.01
Total Offense
Plays948898
Yards5,4924,724
Yards / Play5.85.3
Yards / Game422.5363.4
Punt Returns
Returns2614
Yards255193
Average9.813.8
Touchdowns11
Kickoff Returns
Returns2937
Yards673895
Average23.224.2
Touchdowns01
Punting
Punts4965
Yards2,2492,693
Average45.941.4
Interception Returns
Returns168
Yards29299
Touchdowns31
Fumbles
Fumbles1410
Lost86
Penalties
Penalties5368
Yards480597
Yards / Game36.945.9
Time of Possession
Per Game30:3529:09
Third Downs
Attempts194192
Conversions8879
Conversion %45.4%41.1%
Fourth Downs
Attempts2424
Conversions1311
Conversion %54.2%45.8%
Red Zone
Trips6342
Scores (TD + FG)5635
Score %88.9%83.3%
Touchdowns4128
TD %65.1%66.7%
Field Goals
Attempts2412
Made2110
Pct87.5%83.3%
PAT Kicking
Attempts5238
Made5038
Pct96.2%100.0%
Two-Point Conversions
Attempts78
Made23
Official-stats conventions: rushing includes sacks as negative attempts (NCAA), so Total Offense = rush + pass. Red-zone Score % counts touchdowns and field goals per trip.
Compare to any opponent →Find similar matchups →Team identity →Situational splits →