Fourth Down Data
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BALL

Ball State

CardinalsRun-Heavy
Mid-American Conference7-1#21 (+6.24)

Grades

Percentile grades against every FBS team this season — 99 is best. Curved so an average team reads C, not F.

84· BOverall
Offense
80· BRating
75· BPer play
91· A-Consistency
48· CBig plays
Defense
73· BRating
65· CPer play
34· DConsistency
Situational
70· BRed-zone O
53· CRed-zone D
76· B3rd down O
62· C3rd down D
How grades work →

Analytical Fingerprint

SS-native team profile — opponent-adjusted and garbage-filtered EPA, success, and explosiveness.

Opp-Adj Offense
+0.028
Opp-Adj Defense
+0.019
higher = better
Offensive EPA/play
+0.100
Defensive EPA/play
-0.019
lower = better
Off Success Rate
52.5%
Def Success Rate
49.7%
allowed · lower = better
Explosive Rate
24.1%
pass EPA > 1.0 · rush > 0.8
Explosive Allowed
22.5%
lower = better
Net EPA/play
+0.120
net · higher = better
Recent EPA Trend
-0.037
last 3 weeks
Points / Drive
2.55

Special Teams

Opponent-adjusted special-teams component of the Final Rating, in expected points per game — positive = better. The four units sum to the net.

Net ST Rating
+1.07
expected pts/game
Kicking
+0.13
own kicking game
Kick Defense
+0.46
vs opponent kicks
Returns
+0.25
own return game
Return Defense
+0.23
vs opponent returns

Performance vs Perception

Our opponent-adjusted model rank vs. how others rate this team. Descriptive — where the model and the consensus disagree.

Model Rank
#21
opponent-adjusted strength
AP Poll
#23
model 2 spots higher
Market (Vegas)
#68
model 47 higher
Recruiting Rank
—
no recruiting profile

Peer Context

Where Ball State ranks among all FBS teams in 2020 (percentile).

Opp-adjusted offense
79th
Opp-adjusted defense
71th
Offensive EPA/play
76th
Defensive EPA/play
66th
Offensive success rate
91th
Explosiveness
48th
Defensive havoc
58th
Points per drive
72th

Historical Fingerprint

Most statistically similar team-seasons, 2017–2025, by the same 44-feature profile The Archive uses. Descriptive context, not a forecast.

1USC2026OA +0.069 / +0.086similar: havoc rate, offensive success rate, passing offense3972Memphis2022OA +0.049 / +0.067similar: TD drive rate, takeaway rate, passing offense3873UTSA2021OA +0.149 / +0.028similar: defensive EPA, passing offense, takeaway rate3834Texas2018OA +0.090 / +0.028similar: takeaway rate, offensive success rate, TD drive rate3825Boise State2018OA +0.145 / +0.073similar: run defense, offensive EPA, pass defense379

2020 Schedule & Results

8 games

WkOpponentScoreW/LSpreadATSTotalO/U
10@ Miami (OH)31-38L-8.5L60.5O
11vs Eastern Michigan38-31W-10.5L--
12vs Northern Illinois31-25W----
13@ Toledo27-24W+9.5W63.5U
14@ Central Michigan45-20W+1.0W61.75O
15vs Western Michigan30-27W+13.0W69.5U
16@ Buffalo38-28W----
18@ San José State34-13W----

Betting Profile

ATS Record
5-3
62.5%
O/U Record
3-4
42.9%
Straight Up
7-1
87.5%
Home ATS1-2
Away ATS4-1
Favorite ATS0-3
Underdog ATS5-0
Last 5 ATS
WWWWW
Full ATS log & splits →
Graded against consensus market lines (median across multiple sportsbooks). Games the market never lined — mostly early-season non-FBS matchups — are excluded from ATS and O/U records; individual games may grade differently than closing-line sources.

Situational Profile

Situational EPA percentile across 8 phases (the larger the shape, the more dominant). Within-FBS ranks.

Pass Off91thRush Off51thRed Zone Off70th3rd Down Off77thPass Def50thRush Def69thRed Zone Def54th3rd Down Def63th
SituationOFF EPAOFF RankDEF EPADEF Rank
Overall+0.08673th-0.00862th
Red Zone+0.09470th-0.02054th
Third Down+0.24577th+0.01263th
No Garbage Time+0.10678th-0.02063th
First Half+0.16785th-0.04873th
Second Half+0.00545th+0.03449th
Early Downs+0.00452th+0.03438th
Passing Downs+0.25991th+0.04750th
Standard Downs+0.00851th-0.03369th
Goal to Go+0.21274th-0.03362th

Style & Tendencies

Pass 40.7%Rush 59.3%
Havoc/Game
14.9
Havoc Rate
19.6%
TO Margin
+1.0
Explosive/G
17.5
Yards/Game
448.5
Pts/Drive
2.55
3rd Down%
47.1%
3&Out%
18.1%

Team Statistics

2020 season totals across 8 games — Ball State vs. the combined line of every opponent in those games.
StatBall StateOpponents
Scoring
Points274206
Points / Game34.325.8
First Downs
Total195185
Rushing8162
Passing98105
Penalty1618
Rushing
Attempts366281
Yards1,4241,090
Yards / Carry3.93.9
Yards / Game178.0136.3
Touchdowns1512
Passing
Attempts251298
Completions164194
Completion %65.3%65.1%
Yards2,1642,349
Yards / Attempt8.67.9
Touchdowns1714
Interceptions610
Passer Rating155.33140.11
Total Offense
Plays617579
Yards3,5883,439
Yards / Play5.85.9
Yards / Game448.5429.9
Punt Returns
Returns512
Yards-247
Average-0.43.9
Touchdowns00
Kickoff Returns
Returns2233
Yards445659
Average20.220.0
Touchdowns01
Punting
Punts3332
Yards1,4081,288
Average42.740.3
Interception Returns
Returns106
Yards14496
Touchdowns20
Fumbles
Fumbles614
Lost37
Penalties
Penalties4649
Yards391444
Yards / Game48.955.5
Time of Possession
Per Game29:5429:58
Third Downs
Attempts119104
Conversions5637
Conversion %47.1%35.6%
Fourth Downs
Attempts1320
Conversions77
Conversion %53.8%35.0%
Red Zone
Trips3731
Scores (TD + FG)3023
Score %81.1%74.2%
Touchdowns2320
TD %62.2%64.5%
Field Goals
Attempts1511
Made106
Pct66.7%54.5%
PAT Kicking
Attempts3122
Made2822
Pct90.3%100.0%
Two-Point Conversions
Attempts45
Made32
Official-stats conventions: rushing includes sacks as negative attempts (NCAA), so Total Offense = rush + pass. Red-zone Score % counts touchdowns and field goals per trip.
Compare to any opponent →Find similar matchups →Team identity →Situational splits →