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BOIS
Boise State
BroncosBalancedPac-12 Conference10-3#17 (+8.09)
Grades
Percentile grades against every FBS team this season — 99 is best. Curved so an average team reads C, not F.
87· BOverall
Offense
94· ARating
79· BPer play
80· BConsistency
48· CBig plays
Defense
76· BRating
82· BPer play
84· BConsistency
Situational
50· CRed-zone O
55· CRed-zone D
89· B3rd down O
61· C3rd down D
Analytical Fingerprint
SS-native team profile — opponent-adjusted and garbage-filtered EPA, success, and explosiveness.
Opp-Adj Offense
+0.145
Opp-Adj Defense
+0.073
higher = better
Offensive EPA/play
+0.078
Defensive EPA/play
-0.101
lower = better
Off Success Rate
49.5%
Def Success Rate
43.4%
allowed · lower = better
Explosive Rate
23.5%
pass EPA > 1.0 · rush > 0.8
Explosive Allowed
23.8%
lower = better
Net EPA/play
+0.179
net · higher = better
Recent EPA Trend
-0.025
last 3 weeks
Points / Drive
2.73
Special Teams
Opponent-adjusted special-teams component of the Final Rating, in expected points per game — positive = better. The four units sum to the net.
Net ST Rating
-0.13
expected pts/game
Kicking
-0.85
own kicking game
Kick Defense
+0.63
vs opponent kicks
Returns
+0.21
own return game
Return Defense
-0.12
vs opponent returns
Performance vs Perception
Our opponent-adjusted model rank vs. how others rate this team. Descriptive — where the model and the consensus disagree.
Model Rank
#17
opponent-adjusted strength
AP Poll
#23
model 6 spots higher
Market (Vegas)
—
unavailable
Recruiting Rank
#66
model 49 spots higher
1 blue-chip recruits
Peer Context
Where Boise State ranks among all FBS teams in 2018 (percentile).
Opp-adjusted offense97th
Opp-adjusted defense77th
Offensive EPA/play80th
Defensive EPA/play83th
Offensive success rate84th
Explosiveness48th
Defensive havoc68th
Points per drive85th
Historical Fingerprint
Most statistically similar team-seasons, 2017–2025, by the same 44-feature profile The Archive uses. Descriptive context, not a forecast.
1Alabama2021OA +0.139 / +0.155similar: defensive success rate, passing offense, defensive EPA3812Ball State2020OA +0.028 / +0.019similar: run defense, offensive EPA, pass defense3793USC2026OA +0.069 / +0.086similar: defensive EPA, passing offense, TD drive rate3664Oregon2025OA +0.146 / +0.155similar: takeaway rate, offensive success rate, turnover rate3575Penn State2024OA +0.078 / +0.056similar: defensive EPA, TD drive rate, passing offense350
2018 Schedule & Results
13 games
| Wk | Opponent | Score | W/L | Spread | ATS | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | @ Troy | 56-20 | W | -9.0 | W | 48.5 | O |
| 2 | vs UConn | 62-7 | W | -34.0 | W | 63.5 | O |
| 3 | @ Oklahoma State | 21-44 | L | -2.0 | L | 65.5 | U |
| 5 | @ Wyoming | 34-14 | W | -15.5 | W | 47.5 | O |
| 6 | vs San Diego State | 13-19 | L | -13.5 | L | 50 | U |
| 7 | @ Nevada | 31-27 | W | -15.0 | L | 59.5 | U |
| 8 | vs Colorado State | 56-28 | W | -24.0 | W | 63.5 | O |
| 9 | @ Air Force | 48-38 | W | -10.0 | P | 58 | O |
| 10 | vs BYU | 21-16 | W | -12.0 | L | 53.5 | U |
| 11 | vs Fresno State | 24-17 | W | +2.5 | W | 56 | U |
| 12 | @ New Mexico | 45-14 | W | -21.0 | W | 61 | U |
| 13 | vs Utah State | 33-24 | W | -2.5 | W | 65 | U |
| 14 | vs Fresno State | 16-19 | L | -2.0 | L | 51.5 | U |
Betting Profile
ATS Record
7-5-1
58.3%
O/U Record
5-8
38.5%
Straight Up
10-3
76.9%
Home ATS4-3
Away ATS3-2
Favorite ATS6-5
Underdog ATS1-0
Last 5 ATS
LWWWL
Graded against consensus market lines (median across multiple sportsbooks). Games the market never lined — mostly early-season non-FBS matchups — are excluded from ATS and O/U records; individual games may grade differently than closing-line sources.
Situational Profile
Situational EPA percentile across 8 phases (the larger the shape, the more dominant). Within-FBS ranks.
| Situation | OFF EPA | OFF Rank | DEF EPA | DEF Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Overall | +0.078 | 81th | -0.045 | 64th |
| Red Zone | +0.025 | 51th | -0.010 | 56th |
| Third Down | +0.285 | 90th | -0.014 | 61th |
| No Garbage Time | +0.081 | 80th | -0.091 | 80th |
| First Half | +0.080 | 75th | -0.113 | 78th |
| Second Half | +0.077 | 75th | +0.028 | 40th |
| Early Downs | +0.005 | 59th | +0.011 | 39th |
| Passing Downs | +0.171 | 87th | -0.214 | 92th |
| Standard Downs | +0.034 | 64th | +0.047 | 27th |
| Goal to Go | +0.457 | 95th | -0.164 | 78th |
Style & Tendencies
Pass 47.0%Rush 53.0%
Havoc/Game
13.5
Havoc Rate
20.5%
TO Margin
+0.8
Explosive/G
15.4
Yards/Game
459.5
Pts/Drive
2.73
3rd Down%
52.7%
3&Out%
17.0%
Team Statistics
2018 season totals across 13 games — Boise State vs. the combined line of every opponent in those games.
| Stat | Boise State | Opponents |
|---|---|---|
| Scoring | ||
| Points | 460 | 287 |
| Points / Game | 35.4 | 22.1 |
| First Downs | ||
| Total | 314 | 232 |
| Rushing | 128 | 91 |
| Passing | 169 | 123 |
| Penalty | 17 | 18 |
| Rushing | ||
| Attempts | 519 | 438 |
| Yards | 2,178 | 1,598 |
| Yards / Carry | 4.2 | 3.6 |
| Yards / Game | 167.5 | 122.9 |
| Touchdowns | 24 | 16 |
| Passing | ||
| Attempts | 460 | 382 |
| Completions | 310 | 240 |
| Completion % | 67.4% | 62.8% |
| Yards | 3,796 | 3,029 |
| Yards / Attempt | 8.3 | 7.9 |
| Touchdowns | 31 | 17 |
| Interceptions | 8 | 7 |
| Passer Rating | 155.47 | 140.45 |
| Total Offense | ||
| Plays | 979 | 820 |
| Yards | 5,974 | 4,627 |
| Yards / Play | 6.1 | 5.6 |
| Yards / Game | 459.5 | 355.9 |
| Punt Returns | ||
| Returns | 32 | 10 |
| Yards | 256 | 150 |
| Average | 8.0 | 15.0 |
| Touchdowns | 1 | 2 |
| Kickoff Returns | ||
| Returns | 28 | 28 |
| Yards | 621 | 561 |
| Average | 22.2 | 20.0 |
| Touchdowns | 1 | 0 |
| Punting | ||
| Punts | 49 | 64 |
| Yards | 1,824 | 2,631 |
| Average | 37.2 | 41.1 |
| Interception Returns | ||
| Returns | 7 | 8 |
| Yards | 145 | 144 |
| Touchdowns | 1 | 0 |
| Fumbles | ||
| Fumbles | 16 | 22 |
| Lost | 5 | 17 |
| Penalties | ||
| Penalties | 75 | 79 |
| Yards | 695 | 600 |
| Yards / Game | 53.5 | 46.2 |
| Time of Possession | ||
| Per Game | 33:20 | 26:40 |
| Third Downs | ||
| Attempts | 201 | 164 |
| Conversions | 106 | 51 |
| Conversion % | 52.7% | 31.1% |
| Fourth Downs | ||
| Attempts | 22 | 23 |
| Conversions | 13 | 14 |
| Conversion % | 59.1% | 60.9% |
| Red Zone | ||
| Trips | 50 | 38 |
| Scores (TD + FG) | 42 | 32 |
| Score % | 84.0% | 84.2% |
| Touchdowns | 31 | 22 |
| TD % | 62.0% | 57.9% |
| Field Goals | ||
| Attempts | 20 | 22 |
| Made | 12 | 15 |
| Pct | 60.0% | 68.2% |
| PAT Kicking | ||
| Attempts | 60 | 32 |
| Made | 58 | 32 |
| Pct | 96.7% | 100.0% |
| Two-Point Conversions | ||
| Attempts | 1 | 2 |
| Made | 0 | 0 |
Official-stats conventions: rushing includes sacks as negative attempts (NCAA), so Total Offense = rush + pass. Red-zone Score % counts touchdowns and field goals per trip.