Fourth Down Data
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TOL

Toledo

RocketsBalanced
Mid-American Conference0-1#55 (+2.67)
Early-season ratings are provisional. Opponent adjustment relies on a thin schedule graph until teams are connected through more games; expect movement through late September.

Grades

Percentile grades against every FBS team this season — 99 is best. Curved so an average team reads C, not F.

60· COverall
Offense
69· CRating
66· CPer play
9· FConsistency
63· CBig plays
Defense
55· CRating
49· CPer play
30· DConsistency
Situational
97· A+Red-zone O
57· CRed-zone D
4· F3rd down O
48· C3rd down D
How grades work →

Analytical Fingerprint

SS-native team profile — opponent-adjusted and garbage-filtered EPA, success, and explosiveness.

Opp-Adj Offense
+0.053
Opp-Adj Defense
+0.031
higher = better
Offensive EPA/play
+0.150
Defensive EPA/play
-0.065
lower = better
Off Success Rate
36.6%
Def Success Rate
47.0%
allowed · lower = better
Explosive Rate
24.4%
pass EPA > 1.0 · rush > 0.8
Explosive Allowed
16.9%
lower = better
Net EPA/play
+0.215
net · higher = better
Recent EPA Trend
0.000
last 3 weeks
Points / Drive
2.10

Special Teams

Opponent-adjusted special-teams component of the Final Rating, in expected points per game — positive = better. The four units sum to the net.

Net ST Rating
-0.62
expected pts/game
Kicking
-0.31
own kicking game
Kick Defense
-0.27
vs opponent kicks
Returns
+0.04
own return game
Return Defense
-0.09
vs opponent returns

Peer Context

Where Toledo ranks among all FBS teams in 2026 (percentile).

Opp-adjusted offense
88th
Opp-adjusted defense
71th
Offensive EPA/play
66th
Defensive EPA/play
50th
Offensive success rate
10th
Explosiveness
64th
Defensive havoc
31th
Points per drive
39th

Historical Fingerprint

Most statistically similar team-seasons, 2017–2025, by the same 44-feature profile The Archive uses. Descriptive context, not a forecast.

1Stanford2018OA +0.030 / +0.004similar: offensive EPA, defensive EPA, run defense3302Ole Miss2026OA +0.002 / -0.042similar: pass defense, takeaway rate, TD drive rate3153California2019OA +0.044 / +0.040similar: run defense, TD drive rate, takeaway rate3144Florida State2019OA -0.009 / +0.034similar: turnover rate, defensive EPA, havoc rate3035Oregon State2026OA +0.042 / -0.008similar: pass defense, havoc rate, TD drive rate301

2026 Schedule & Results

12 games

WkOpponentScoreW/LSpreadATSTotalO/U
1@ Michigan State20-30L+10.5W47.5O
2vs Central Connecticut State------
3vs Temple------
4vs San Diego State------
5@ Ball State------
6vs Buffalo------
7@ Eastern Michigan------
8vs Western Michigan------
10@ Sacramento State------
11vs Massachusetts------
12vs Bowling Green------
13@ Ohio------

Betting Profile

ATS Record
1-0
100.0%
O/U Record
1-0
100.0%
Straight Up
0-1
0.0%
Home ATS0-0
Away ATS1-0
Favorite ATS0-0
Underdog ATS1-0
Last 5 ATS
W
Full ATS log & splits →
Graded against consensus market lines (median across multiple sportsbooks). Games the market never lined — mostly early-season non-FBS matchups — are excluded from ATS and O/U records; individual games may grade differently than closing-line sources.

Situational Profile

Situational EPA percentile across 8 phases (the larger the shape, the more dominant). Within-FBS ranks.

Pass Off92thRush Off19thRed Zone Off98th3rd Down Off4thPass Def56thRush Def39thRed Zone Def58th3rd Down Def48th
SituationOFF EPAOFF RankDEF EPADEF Rank
Overall+0.15071th-0.06552th
Red Zone+1.00998th-0.21458th
Third Down-0.8814th-0.07148th
No Garbage Time+0.15066th-0.06549th
First Half-0.10229th-0.04442th
Second Half+0.39191th-0.08651th
Early Downs-0.10229th-0.06746th
Passing Downs+0.59392th-0.13556th
Standard Downs-0.19619th-0.03339th
Goal to Go+1.00994th-0.53586th

Style & Tendencies

Pass 51.2%Rush 48.8%
Havoc/Game
12.0
Havoc Rate
14.1%
TO Margin
-1.0
Explosive/G
10.0
Yards/Game
273.0
Pts/Drive
2.10
3rd Down%
12.5%
3&Out%
30.0%

Team Statistics

2026 season totals across 1 games — Toledo vs. the combined line of every opponent in those games.
StatToledoOpponents
Scoring
Points2030
Points / Game20.030.0
First Downs
Total1026
Rushing29
Passing614
Penalty23
Rushing
Attempts2049
Yards77150
Yards / Carry3.93.1
Yards / Game77.0150.0
Touchdowns11
Passing
Attempts2134
Completions1226
Completion %57.1%76.5%
Yards196247
Yards / Attempt9.37.3
Touchdowns21
Interceptions10
Passer Rating157.45147.20
Total Offense
Plays4183
Yards273397
Yards / Play6.74.8
Yards / Game273.0397.0
Punt Returns
Returns03
Yards030
Average—10.0
Touchdowns00
Kickoff Returns
Returns11
Yards2347
Average23.047.0
Touchdowns00
Punting
Punts41
Yards18444
Average46.044.0
Interception Returns
Returns01
Yards00
Touchdowns00
Fumbles
Fumbles01
Lost00
Penalties
Penalties74
Yards3943
Yards / Game39.043.0
Time of Possession
Per Game16:4443:16
Third Downs
Attempts818
Conversions16
Conversion %12.5%33.3%
Fourth Downs
Attempts13
Conversions02
Conversion %0.0%66.7%
Red Zone
Trips14
Scores (TD + FG)14
Score %100.0%100.0%
Touchdowns12
TD %100.0%50.0%
Field Goals
Attempts16
Made05
Pct0.0%83.3%
PAT Kicking
Attempts21
Made21
Pct100.0%100.0%
Two-Point Conversions
Attempts11
Made01
Official-stats conventions: rushing includes sacks as negative attempts (NCAA), so Total Offense = rush + pass. Red-zone Score % counts touchdowns and field goals per trip.
Compare to any opponent →Find similar matchups →Team identity →Situational splits →