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BGSU
Bowling Green
FalconsBalancedMid-American Conference0-1
Early-season ratings are provisional. Opponent adjustment relies on a thin schedule graph until teams are connected through more games; expect movement through late September.
Analytical Fingerprint
SS-native team profile — opponent-adjusted and garbage-filtered EPA, success, and explosiveness.
Opp-Adj Offense
-0.093
Opp-Adj Defense
-0.073
higher = better
Offensive EPA/play
-0.176
Defensive EPA/play
-0.045
lower = better
Off Success Rate
49.3%
Def Success Rate
42.1%
allowed · lower = better
Explosive Rate
17.9%
pass EPA > 1.0 · rush > 0.8
Explosive Allowed
0.0%
lower = better
Net EPA/play
-0.132
net · higher = better
Recent EPA Trend
0.000
last 3 weeks
Points / Drive
1.30
Peer Context
Where Bowling Green ranks among all FBS teams in 2026 (percentile).
Opp-adjusted offense4th
Opp-adjusted defense6th
Offensive EPA/play15th
Defensive EPA/play45th
Offensive success rate54th
Explosiveness19th
Defensive havoc13th
Points per drive18th
Historical Fingerprint
Most statistically similar team-seasons, 2017–2025, by the same 44-feature profile The Archive uses. Descriptive context, not a forecast.
1Georgia State2017OA -0.067 / -0.042similar: pass defense, TD drive rate, passing offense3382Western Kentucky2024OA -0.008 / +0.008similar: rushing offense, turnover rate, havoc rate3023Akron2022OA -0.103 / -0.081similar: havoc rate, pass defense, rushing offense2974Wake Forest2023OA -0.025 / +0.010similar: offensive EPA, offensive success rate, TD drive rate2935Eastern Michigan2017OA -0.078 / +0.060similar: TD drive rate, defensive success rate, offensive EPA291
2026 Schedule & Results
12 games
| Wk | Opponent | Score | W/L | Spread | ATS | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | vs Tarleton State | 13-20 | L | -2.5 | L | 49 | U |
| 2 | @ Nebraska | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| 3 | @ Iowa State | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| 4 | vs South Florida | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| 5 | @ Miami (OH) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| 6 | vs Sacramento State | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| 7 | vs Ball State | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| 8 | @ Buffalo | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| 9 | @ Western Michigan | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| 11 | vs Kent State | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| 12 | @ Toledo | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| 13 | vs Massachusetts | - | - | - | - | - | - |
Betting Profile
ATS Record
0-1
0.0%
O/U Record
0-1
0.0%
Straight Up
0-1
0.0%
Home ATS0-1
Away ATS0-0
Favorite ATS0-1
Underdog ATS0-0
Last 5 ATS
L
Graded against consensus market lines (median across multiple sportsbooks). Games the market never lined — mostly early-season non-FBS matchups — are excluded from ATS and O/U records; individual games may grade differently than closing-line sources.
Style & Tendencies
Pass 44.8%Rush 55.2%
Havoc/Game
-
Havoc Rate
10.5%
TO Margin
-
Explosive/G
-
Yards/Game
-
Pts/Drive
1.30
3rd Down%
-
3&Out%
10.0%