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TENN
Tennessee
VolunteersBalancedSoutheastern Conference3-7#93 (-3.29)
Grades
Percentile grades against every FBS team this season — 99 is best. Curved so an average team reads C, not F.
28· DOverall
Offense
19· DRating
19· DPer play
56· CConsistency
34· DBig plays
Defense
31· DRating
29· DPer play
14· FConsistency
Situational
34· DRed-zone O
66· CRed-zone D
1· F3rd down O
79· B3rd down D
Analytical Fingerprint
SS-native team profile — opponent-adjusted and garbage-filtered EPA, success, and explosiveness.
Opp-Adj Offense
-0.035
Opp-Adj Defense
-0.016
higher = better
Offensive EPA/play
-0.081
Defensive EPA/play
+0.071
lower = better
Off Success Rate
46.4%
Def Success Rate
50.5%
allowed · lower = better
Explosive Rate
22.7%
pass EPA > 1.0 · rush > 0.8
Explosive Allowed
24.0%
lower = better
Net EPA/play
-0.152
net · higher = better
Recent EPA Trend
+0.033
last 3 weeks
Points / Drive
1.81
Special Teams
Opponent-adjusted special-teams component of the Final Rating, in expected points per game — positive = better. The four units sum to the net.
Net ST Rating
+0.24
expected pts/game
Kicking
+0.32
own kicking game
Kick Defense
-0.54
vs opponent kicks
Returns
+0.05
own return game
Return Defense
+0.41
vs opponent returns
Performance vs Perception
Our opponent-adjusted model rank vs. how others rate this team. Descriptive — where the model and the consensus disagree.
Model Rank
#93
opponent-adjusted strength
AP Poll
NR
—
Market (Vegas)
#75
market 18 higher
Recruiting Rank
#12
recruiting 81 spots higher
32 blue-chip recruits
Peer Context
Where Tennessee ranks among all FBS teams in 2020 (percentile).
Opp-adjusted offense13th
Opp-adjusted defense32th
Offensive EPA/play19th
Defensive EPA/play29th
Offensive success rate48th
Explosiveness34th
Defensive havoc28th
Points per drive23th
Historical Fingerprint
Most statistically similar team-seasons, 2017–2025, by the same 44-feature profile The Archive uses. Descriptive context, not a forecast.
1Kentucky2025OA -0.115 / +0.051similar: TD drive rate, run defense, passing offense3832Pittsburgh2017OA +0.004 / -0.016similar: offensive success rate, pass defense, defensive EPA3833South Alabama2019OA -0.148 / -0.021similar: defensive EPA, pass defense, offensive EPA3824Vanderbilt2020OA -0.024 / -0.050similar: offensive EPA, passing offense, rushing offense3785Bowling Green2019OA -0.182 / -0.074similar: havoc rate, defensive success rate, turnover rate368
2020 Schedule & Results
10 games
| Wk | Opponent | Score | W/L | Spread | ATS | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | @ South Carolina | 31-27 | W | -3.5 | W | 43.5 | O |
| 5 | vs Missouri | 35-12 | W | -12.5 | W | 48.5 | U |
| 6 | @ Georgia | 21-44 | L | +12.5 | L | 43 | O |
| 7 | vs Kentucky | 7-34 | L | -6.0 | L | 46 | U |
| 8 | vs Alabama | 17-48 | L | +21.0 | L | 65.5 | U |
| 10 | @ Arkansas | 13-24 | L | -1.5 | L | 52.5 | U |
| 12 | @ Auburn | 17-30 | L | +10.5 | L | 50.5 | U |
| 14 | vs Florida | 19-31 | L | +17.5 | W | 61.5 | U |
| 15 | @ Vanderbilt | 42-17 | W | -15.0 | W | 50.75 | O |
| 16 | vs Texas A&M | 13-34 | L | +14.0 | L | 51 | U |
Betting Profile
ATS Record
4-6
40.0%
O/U Record
3-7
30.0%
Straight Up
3-7
30.0%
Home ATS2-3
Away ATS2-3
Favorite ATS3-2
Underdog ATS1-4
Last 5 ATS
LLWWL
Graded against consensus market lines (median across multiple sportsbooks). Games the market never lined — mostly early-season non-FBS matchups — are excluded from ATS and O/U records; individual games may grade differently than closing-line sources.
Situational Profile
Situational EPA percentile across 8 phases (the larger the shape, the more dominant). Within-FBS ranks.
| Situation | OFF EPA | OFF Rank | DEF EPA | DEF Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Overall | -0.092 | 16th | +0.035 | 48th |
| Red Zone | -0.064 | 34th | -0.075 | 66th |
| Third Down | -0.446 | 1th | -0.083 | 80th |
| No Garbage Time | -0.102 | 16th | +0.056 | 34th |
| First Half | +0.003 | 49th | +0.004 | 54th |
| Second Half | -0.188 | 5th | +0.069 | 36th |
| Early Downs | +0.009 | 56th | +0.075 | 18th |
| Passing Downs | -0.266 | 6th | -0.021 | 65th |
| Standard Downs | -0.005 | 46th | +0.061 | 29th |
| Goal to Go | +0.594 | 97th | +0.053 | 47th |
Style & Tendencies
Pass 43.2%Rush 56.8%
Havoc/Game
11.7
Havoc Rate
16.1%
TO Margin
-0.5
Explosive/G
12.7
Yards/Game
346.2
Pts/Drive
1.81
3rd Down%
30.2%
3&Out%
25.7%
Team Statistics
2020 season totals across 10 games — Tennessee vs. the combined line of every opponent in those games.
| Stat | Tennessee | Opponents |
|---|---|---|
| Scoring | ||
| Points | 215 | 301 |
| Points / Game | 21.5 | 30.1 |
| First Downs | ||
| Total | 202 | 221 |
| Rushing | 89 | 83 |
| Passing | 94 | 124 |
| Penalty | 19 | 14 |
| Rushing | ||
| Attempts | 375 | 385 |
| Yards | 1,415 | 1,416 |
| Yards / Carry | 3.8 | 3.7 |
| Yards / Game | 141.5 | 141.6 |
| Touchdowns | 12 | 15 |
| Passing | ||
| Attempts | 285 | 314 |
| Completions | 179 | 214 |
| Completion % | 62.8% | 68.2% |
| Yards | 2,047 | 2,658 |
| Yards / Attempt | 7.2 | 8.5 |
| Touchdowns | 14 | 15 |
| Interceptions | 9 | 5 |
| Passer Rating | 133.03 | 151.84 |
| Total Offense | ||
| Plays | 660 | 699 |
| Yards | 3,462 | 4,074 |
| Yards / Play | 5.2 | 5.8 |
| Yards / Game | 346.2 | 407.4 |
| Punt Returns | ||
| Returns | 5 | 8 |
| Yards | 35 | 8 |
| Average | 7.0 | 1.0 |
| Touchdowns | 0 | 0 |
| Kickoff Returns | ||
| Returns | 19 | 5 |
| Yards | 394 | 112 |
| Average | 20.7 | 22.4 |
| Touchdowns | 0 | 0 |
| Punting | ||
| Punts | 49 | 39 |
| Yards | 2,138 | 1,558 |
| Average | 43.6 | 39.9 |
| Interception Returns | ||
| Returns | 5 | 9 |
| Yards | 131 | 256 |
| Touchdowns | 2 | 3 |
| Fumbles | ||
| Fumbles | 11 | 15 |
| Lost | 6 | 5 |
| Penalties | ||
| Penalties | 61 | 51 |
| Yards | 502 | 469 |
| Yards / Game | 50.2 | 46.9 |
| Time of Possession | ||
| Per Game | 27:57 | 32:03 |
| Third Downs | ||
| Attempts | 129 | 147 |
| Conversions | 39 | 70 |
| Conversion % | 30.2% | 47.6% |
| Fourth Downs | ||
| Attempts | 24 | 9 |
| Conversions | 16 | 4 |
| Conversion % | 66.7% | 44.4% |
| Red Zone | ||
| Trips | 23 | 43 |
| Scores (TD + FG) | 17 | 38 |
| Score % | 73.9% | 88.4% |
| Touchdowns | 15 | 26 |
| TD % | 65.2% | 60.5% |
| Field Goals | ||
| Attempts | 9 | 22 |
| Made | 5 | 19 |
| Pct | 55.6% | 86.4% |
| PAT Kicking | ||
| Attempts | 28 | 34 |
| Made | 26 | 34 |
| Pct | 92.9% | 100.0% |
| Two-Point Conversions | ||
| Attempts | 1 | 1 |
| Made | 0 | 0 |
Official-stats conventions: rushing includes sacks as negative attempts (NCAA), so Total Offense = rush + pass. Red-zone Score % counts touchdowns and field goals per trip.