Fourth Down Data
← All Teams
PITT

Pittsburgh

PanthersBalanced
Atlantic Coast Conference5-7#65 (+1.61)

Grades

Percentile grades against every FBS team this season — 99 is best. Curved so an average team reads C, not F.

51· COverall
Offense
39· DRating
31· DPer play
54· CConsistency
33· DBig plays
Defense
70· BRating
36· DPer play
45· CConsistency
Situational
72· BRed-zone O
58· CRed-zone D
16· D3rd down O
63· C3rd down D
How grades work →2017 is the earliest season the model grades — first-year numbers run a touch noisier than later seasons.

Analytical Fingerprint

SS-native team profile — opponent-adjusted and garbage-filtered EPA, success, and explosiveness.

Opp-Adj Offense
+0.004
Opp-Adj Defense
-0.016
higher = better
Offensive EPA/play
-0.072
Defensive EPA/play
+0.027
lower = better
Off Success Rate
46.2%
Def Success Rate
45.2%
allowed · lower = better
Explosive Rate
22.1%
pass EPA > 1.0 · rush > 0.8
Explosive Allowed
24.6%
lower = better
Net EPA/play
-0.099
net · higher = better
Recent EPA Trend
+0.011
last 3 weeks
Points / Drive
1.76

Special Teams

Opponent-adjusted special-teams component of the Final Rating, in expected points per game — positive = better. The four units sum to the net.

Net ST Rating
-0.69
expected pts/game
Kicking
-0.61
own kicking game
Kick Defense
-0.02
vs opponent kicks
Returns
+0.15
own return game
Return Defense
-0.21
vs opponent returns

Performance vs Perception

Our opponent-adjusted model rank vs. how others rate this team. Descriptive — where the model and the consensus disagree.

Model Rank
#65
opponent-adjusted strength
AP Poll
NR
—
Market (Vegas)
—
unavailable
Recruiting Rank
#32
recruiting 33 spots higher
11 blue-chip recruits

Peer Context

Where Pittsburgh ranks among all FBS teams in 2017 (percentile).

Opp-adjusted offense
56th
Opp-adjusted defense
45th
Offensive EPA/play
31th
Defensive EPA/play
36th
Offensive success rate
50th
Explosiveness
33th
Defensive havoc
44th
Points per drive
26th

Historical Fingerprint

Most statistically similar team-seasons, 2017–2025, by the same 44-feature profile The Archive uses. Descriptive context, not a forecast.

1Michigan State2025OA +0.075 / -0.070similar: rushing offense, offensive success rate, defensive success rate3962Indiana2023OA -0.009 / -0.034similar: TD drive rate, havoc rate, pass defense3963Tennessee2020OA -0.035 / -0.016similar: offensive success rate, pass defense, defensive EPA3834Ole Miss2019OA +0.008 / +0.019similar: turnover rate, run defense, defensive success rate3665Southern Miss2020OA -0.014 / -0.036similar: pass defense, passing offense, offensive EPA364

2017 Schedule & Results

12 games

WkOpponentScoreW/LSpreadATSTotalO/U
1vs Youngstown State28-21W-13.0L64.5U
2@ Penn State14-33L+19.0P63.5U
3vs Oklahoma State21-59L+10.5L65.5O
4@ Georgia Tech17-35L+7.0L55U
5vs Rice42-10W-20.0W52P
6@ Syracuse24-27L+3.0P63U
7vs NC State17-35L+11.5L54.5U
8@ Duke24-17W+9.5W49U
9vs Virginia31-14W-1.0W49U
11vs North Carolina31-34L-9.5L50.5O
12@ Virginia Tech14-20L+14.0W49.5U
13vs Miami24-14W+12.0W54U

Betting Profile

ATS Record
5-5-2
50.0%
O/U Record
2-9-1
18.2%
Straight Up
5-7
41.7%
Home ATS3-4
Away ATS2-1
Favorite ATS2-2
Underdog ATS3-3
Last 5 ATS
WWLWW
Full ATS log & splits →
Graded against consensus market lines (median across multiple sportsbooks). Games the market never lined — mostly early-season non-FBS matchups — are excluded from ATS and O/U records; individual games may grade differently than closing-line sources.

Situational Profile

Situational EPA percentile across 8 phases (the larger the shape, the more dominant). Within-FBS ranks.

Pass Off26thRush Off56thRed Zone Off73th3rd Down Off16thPass Def20thRush Def54thRed Zone Def59th3rd Down Def63th
SituationOFF EPAOFF RankDEF EPADEF Rank
Overall-0.04835th+0.02035th
Red Zone+0.09073th-0.04659th
Third Down-0.30316th-0.09563th
No Garbage Time-0.05437th+0.03237th
First Half+0.00157th-0.01749th
Second Half-0.10125th+0.05722th
Early Downs-0.01559th-0.02549th
Passing Downs-0.09726th+0.12420th
Standard Downs-0.02356th-0.03654th
Goal to Go-0.3736th-0.17974th

Style & Tendencies

Pass 44.0%Rush 56.0%
Havoc/Game
12.1
Havoc Rate
17.5%
TO Margin
0.0
Explosive/G
13.5
Yards/Game
366.2
Pts/Drive
1.76
3rd Down%
35.7%
3&Out%
25.6%

Team Statistics

2017 season totals across 12 games — Pittsburgh vs. the combined line of every opponent in those games.
StatPittsburghOpponents
Scoring
Points287319
Points / Game23.926.6
First Downs
Total236238
Rushing10790
Passing116131
Penalty1317
Rushing
Attempts460407
Yards1,7821,709
Yards / Carry3.94.2
Yards / Game148.5142.4
Touchdowns2114
Passing
Attempts362391
Completions224216
Completion %61.9%55.2%
Yards2,6123,050
Yards / Attempt7.27.8
Touchdowns1224
Interceptions89
Passer Rating129.01136.42
Total Offense
Plays822798
Yards4,3944,759
Yards / Play5.36.0
Yards / Game366.2396.6
Punt Returns
Returns2320
Yards329251
Average14.312.6
Touchdowns21
Kickoff Returns
Returns3028
Yards562706
Average18.725.2
Touchdowns01
Punting
Punts6061
Yards2,6442,515
Average44.141.2
Interception Returns
Returns98
Yards8473
Touchdowns01
Fumbles
Fumbles1310
Lost87
Penalties
Penalties4657
Yards458461
Yards / Game38.238.4
Time of Possession
Per Game32:2827:32
Third Downs
Attempts168170
Conversions6069
Conversion %35.7%40.6%
Fourth Downs
Attempts2017
Conversions138
Conversion %65.0%47.1%
Red Zone
Trips3534
Scores (TD + FG)2726
Score %77.1%76.5%
Touchdowns2418
TD %68.6%52.9%
Field Goals
Attempts1916
Made1110
Pct57.9%62.5%
PAT Kicking
Attempts3441
Made3441
Pct100.0%100.0%
Two-Point Conversions
Attempts20
Made20
Official-stats conventions: rushing includes sacks as negative attempts (NCAA), so Total Offense = rush + pass. Red-zone Score % counts touchdowns and field goals per trip.
Compare to any opponent →Find similar matchups →Team identity →Situational splits →