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MISS
Ole Miss
RebelsRun-HeavySoutheastern Conference4-8#52 (+2.75)
Grades
Percentile grades against every FBS team this season — 99 is best. Curved so an average team reads C, not F.
61· COverall
Offense
50· CRating
49· CPer play
40· CConsistency
63· CBig plays
Defense
67· CRating
44· CPer play
41· CConsistency
Situational
41· CRed-zone O
51· CRed-zone D
36· D3rd down O
58· C3rd down D
Analytical Fingerprint
SS-native team profile — opponent-adjusted and garbage-filtered EPA, success, and explosiveness.
Opp-Adj Offense
+0.008
Opp-Adj Defense
+0.019
higher = better
Offensive EPA/play
+0.007
Defensive EPA/play
+0.014
lower = better
Off Success Rate
45.3%
Def Success Rate
46.3%
allowed · lower = better
Explosive Rate
24.4%
pass EPA > 1.0 · rush > 0.8
Explosive Allowed
22.7%
lower = better
Net EPA/play
-0.006
net · higher = better
Recent EPA Trend
+0.148
last 3 weeks
Points / Drive
1.99
Special Teams
Opponent-adjusted special-teams component of the Final Rating, in expected points per game — positive = better. The four units sum to the net.
Net ST Rating
-0.40
expected pts/game
Kicking
-0.73
own kicking game
Kick Defense
+0.28
vs opponent kicks
Returns
-0.01
own return game
Return Defense
+0.06
vs opponent returns
Performance vs Perception
Our opponent-adjusted model rank vs. how others rate this team. Descriptive — where the model and the consensus disagree.
Model Rank
#52
opponent-adjusted strength
AP Poll
NR
—
Market (Vegas)
—
unavailable
Recruiting Rank
#21
recruiting 31 spots higher
27 blue-chip recruits
Peer Context
Where Ole Miss ranks among all FBS teams in 2019 (percentile).
Opp-adjusted offense56th
Opp-adjusted defense58th
Offensive EPA/play49th
Defensive EPA/play45th
Offensive success rate40th
Explosiveness63th
Defensive havoc51th
Points per drive39th
Historical Fingerprint
Most statistically similar team-seasons, 2017–2025, by the same 44-feature profile The Archive uses. Descriptive context, not a forecast.
1Purdue2023OA -0.050 / +0.010similar: takeaway rate, defensive EPA, rushing offense4022Old Dominion2024OA +0.012 / -0.018similar: havoc rate, offensive success rate, offensive EPA3723Pittsburgh2017OA +0.004 / -0.016similar: turnover rate, run defense, defensive success rate3664Louisville2021OA +0.077 / +0.021similar: defensive success rate, havoc rate, pass defense3485Southern Miss2017OA -0.034 / -0.038similar: TD drive rate, passing offense, run defense344
2019 Schedule & Results
12 games
| Wk | Opponent | Score | W/L | Spread | ATS | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | @ Memphis | 10-15 | L | +3.0 | L | 63.5 | U |
| 2 | vs Arkansas | 31-17 | W | -5.0 | W | 50.5 | U |
| 3 | vs Southeastern Louisiana | 40-29 | W | -30.5 | L | 53 | O |
| 4 | vs California | 20-28 | L | -3.0 | L | 43 | O |
| 5 | @ Alabama | 31-59 | L | +37.5 | W | 62.5 | O |
| 6 | vs Vanderbilt | 31-6 | W | -6.5 | W | 63.5 | U |
| 7 | @ Missouri | 27-38 | L | +12.0 | W | 55.5 | O |
| 8 | vs Texas A&M | 17-24 | L | +6.0 | L | 54.5 | U |
| 10 | @ Auburn | 14-20 | L | +18.0 | W | 53 | U |
| 11 | vs New Mexico State | 41-3 | W | -28.0 | W | 64.5 | U |
| 12 | vs LSU | 37-58 | L | +22.0 | W | 67 | O |
| 14 | @ Mississippi State | 20-21 | L | -2.0 | L | 59.5 | U |
Betting Profile
ATS Record
7-5
58.3%
O/U Record
5-7
41.7%
Straight Up
4-8
33.3%
Home ATS4-3
Away ATS3-2
Favorite ATS3-3
Underdog ATS4-2
Last 5 ATS
LWWWL
Graded against consensus market lines (median across multiple sportsbooks). Games the market never lined — mostly early-season non-FBS matchups — are excluded from ATS and O/U records; individual games may grade differently than closing-line sources.
Situational Profile
Situational EPA percentile across 8 phases (the larger the shape, the more dominant). Within-FBS ranks.
| Situation | OFF EPA | OFF Rank | DEF EPA | DEF Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Overall | +0.029 | 55th | +0.002 | 48th |
| Red Zone | -0.071 | 41th | -0.016 | 52th |
| Third Down | -0.030 | 37th | -0.008 | 58th |
| No Garbage Time | -0.012 | 42th | +0.014 | 45th |
| First Half | -0.064 | 28th | +0.045 | 33th |
| Second Half | +0.119 | 87th | -0.046 | 66th |
| Early Downs | +0.093 | 85th | -0.055 | 74th |
| Passing Downs | -0.055 | 32th | +0.106 | 25th |
| Standard Downs | +0.076 | 78th | -0.055 | 75th |
| Goal to Go | -0.082 | 41th | -0.073 | 58th |
Style & Tendencies
Pass 37.3%Rush 62.7%
Havoc/Game
13.8
Havoc Rate
18.8%
TO Margin
+0.1
Explosive/G
16.5
Yards/Game
445.3
Pts/Drive
1.99
3rd Down%
36.8%
3&Out%
19.1%
Team Statistics
2019 season totals across 12 games — Ole Miss vs. the combined line of every opponent in those games.
| Stat | Ole Miss | Opponents |
|---|---|---|
| Scoring | ||
| Points | 319 | 318 |
| Points / Game | 26.6 | 26.5 |
| First Downs | ||
| Total | 271 | 267 |
| Rushing | 140 | 104 |
| Passing | 108 | 146 |
| Penalty | 23 | 17 |
| Rushing | ||
| Attempts | 559 | 425 |
| Yards | 3,015 | 1,662 |
| Yards / Carry | 5.4 | 3.9 |
| Yards / Game | 251.3 | 138.5 |
| Touchdowns | 29 | 16 |
| Passing | ||
| Attempts | 332 | 434 |
| Completions | 186 | 288 |
| Completion % | 56.0% | 66.4% |
| Yards | 2,328 | 3,339 |
| Yards / Attempt | 7.0 | 7.7 |
| Touchdowns | 11 | 20 |
| Interceptions | 6 | 10 |
| Passer Rating | 122.24 | 141.58 |
| Total Offense | ||
| Plays | 891 | 859 |
| Yards | 5,343 | 5,001 |
| Yards / Play | 6.0 | 5.8 |
| Yards / Game | 445.3 | 416.8 |
| Punt Returns | ||
| Returns | 15 | 21 |
| Yards | 91 | 245 |
| Average | 6.1 | 11.7 |
| Touchdowns | 0 | 1 |
| Kickoff Returns | ||
| Returns | 18 | 30 |
| Yards | 404 | 546 |
| Average | 22.4 | 18.2 |
| Touchdowns | 1 | 0 |
| Punting | ||
| Punts | 58 | 57 |
| Yards | 2,524 | 2,377 |
| Average | 43.5 | 41.7 |
| Interception Returns | ||
| Returns | 10 | 6 |
| Yards | 44 | 139 |
| Touchdowns | 0 | 0 |
| Fumbles | ||
| Fumbles | 17 | 13 |
| Lost | 9 | 6 |
| Penalties | ||
| Penalties | 59 | 66 |
| Yards | 585 | 561 |
| Yards / Game | 48.8 | 46.8 |
| Time of Possession | ||
| Per Game | 28:15 | 31:45 |
| Third Downs | ||
| Attempts | 182 | 173 |
| Conversions | 67 | 69 |
| Conversion % | 36.8% | 39.9% |
| Fourth Downs | ||
| Attempts | 32 | 20 |
| Conversions | 17 | 12 |
| Conversion % | 53.1% | 60.0% |
| Red Zone | ||
| Trips | 38 | 38 |
| Scores (TD + FG) | 33 | 33 |
| Score % | 86.8% | 86.8% |
| Touchdowns | 22 | 21 |
| TD % | 57.9% | 55.3% |
| Field Goals | ||
| Attempts | 19 | 25 |
| Made | 11 | 16 |
| Pct | 57.9% | 64.0% |
| PAT Kicking | ||
| Attempts | 39 | 38 |
| Made | 36 | 34 |
| Pct | 92.3% | 89.5% |
| Two-Point Conversions | ||
| Attempts | 2 | 1 |
| Made | 2 | 0 |
Official-stats conventions: rushing includes sacks as negative attempts (NCAA), so Total Offense = rush + pass. Red-zone Score % counts touchdowns and field goals per trip.