Fourth Down Data
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LOU

Louisville

CardinalsRun-Heavy
Atlantic Coast Conference6-7#59 (+1.52)

Grades

Percentile grades against every FBS team this season — 99 is best. Curved so an average team reads C, not F.

56· COverall
Offense
65· CRating
60· CPer play
55· CConsistency
90· A-Big plays
Defense
36· DRating
36· DPer play
48· CConsistency
Situational
81· BRed-zone O
13· FRed-zone D
82· B3rd down O
58· C3rd down D
How grades work →

Analytical Fingerprint

SS-native team profile — opponent-adjusted and garbage-filtered EPA, success, and explosiveness.

Opp-Adj Offense
+0.077
Opp-Adj Defense
+0.021
higher = better
Offensive EPA/play
+0.042
Defensive EPA/play
+0.019
lower = better
Off Success Rate
47.7%
Def Success Rate
46.0%
allowed · lower = better
Explosive Rate
26.8%
pass EPA > 1.0 · rush > 0.8
Explosive Allowed
25.4%
lower = better
Net EPA/play
+0.022
net · higher = better
Recent EPA Trend
+0.190
last 3 weeks
Points / Drive
2.37

Special Teams

Opponent-adjusted special-teams component of the Final Rating, in expected points per game — positive = better. The four units sum to the net.

Net ST Rating
+1.15
expected pts/game
Kicking
-0.35
own kicking game
Kick Defense
-0.24
vs opponent kicks
Returns
+0.94
own return game
Return Defense
+0.80
vs opponent returns

Performance vs Perception

Our opponent-adjusted model rank vs. how others rate this team. Descriptive — where the model and the consensus disagree.

Model Rank
#59
opponent-adjusted strength
AP Poll
NR
—
Market (Vegas)
#77
model 18 higher
Recruiting Rank
#46
recruiting 13 spots higher
6 blue-chip recruits

Peer Context

Where Louisville ranks among all FBS teams in 2021 (percentile).

Opp-adjusted offense
78th
Opp-adjusted defense
59th
Offensive EPA/play
60th
Defensive EPA/play
37th
Offensive success rate
64th
Explosiveness
91th
Defensive havoc
56th
Points per drive
59th

Historical Fingerprint

Most statistically similar team-seasons, 2017–2025, by the same 44-feature profile The Archive uses. Descriptive context, not a forecast.

1Georgia Tech2024OA +0.026 / -0.008similar: takeaway rate, TD drive rate, run defense4092Oregon2026OA +0.017 / -0.041similar: passing offense, turnover rate, defensive success rate4053Oklahoma2022OA +0.102 / +0.001similar: passing offense, turnover rate, offensive success rate4034Texas2022OA +0.125 / +0.064similar: TD drive rate, passing offense, havoc rate3835Ohio2019OA +0.101 / -0.101similar: rushing offense, pass defense, run defense373

2021 Schedule & Results

13 games

WkOpponentScoreW/LSpreadATSTotalO/U
1@ Ole Miss24-43L+10.0L75.5U
2vs Eastern Kentucky30-3W+6.5W67O
3vs UCF42-35W----
4@ Florida State31-23W-1.0W61U
5@ Wake Forest34-37L+7.0W61.5O
6vs Virginia33-34L-2.5L69U
8vs Boston College28-14W-6.5W57U
9@ NC State13-28L+6.8L57U
10vs Clemson24-30L+4.0L46.5O
11vs Syracuse41-3W-3.0W55.5U
12@ Duke62-22W----
13vs Kentucky21-52L-3.0L57O
18vs Air Force28-31L----

Betting Profile

ATS Record
6-6
50.0%
O/U Record
6-6
50.0%
Straight Up
6-7
46.2%
Home ATS3-4
Away ATS3-2
Favorite ATS4-2
Underdog ATS2-4
Last 5 ATS
LWWLL
Full ATS log & splits →
Graded against consensus market lines (median across multiple sportsbooks). Games the market never lined — mostly early-season non-FBS matchups — are excluded from ATS and O/U records; individual games may grade differently than closing-line sources.

Situational Profile

Situational EPA percentile across 8 phases (the larger the shape, the more dominant). Within-FBS ranks.

Pass Off65thRush Off81thRed Zone Off82th3rd Down Off83thPass Def42thRush Def32thRed Zone Def13th3rd Down Def59th
SituationOFF EPAOFF RankDEF EPADEF Rank
Overall+0.07281th+0.02732th
Red Zone+0.12682th+0.17313th
Third Down+0.24483th+0.03859th
No Garbage Time+0.05872th+0.01738th
First Half+0.13288th+0.04531th
Second Half-0.00247th+0.01044th
Early Downs+0.11292th+0.04923th
Passing Downs+0.04365th+0.01842th
Standard Downs+0.08781th+0.03332th
Goal to Go+0.18885th-0.05658th

Style & Tendencies

Pass 41.8%Rush 58.2%
Havoc/Game
13.4
Havoc Rate
19.0%
TO Margin
+0.2
Explosive/G
15.5
Yards/Game
448.4
Pts/Drive
2.37
3rd Down%
40.2%
3&Out%
18.5%

Team Statistics

2021 season totals across 13 games — Louisville vs. the combined line of every opponent in those games.
StatLouisvilleOpponents
Scoring
Points411355
Points / Game31.627.3
First Downs
Total275288
Rushing121117
Passing133146
Penalty2125
Rushing
Attempts508467
Yards2,7682,037
Yards / Carry5.44.4
Yards / Game212.9156.7
Touchdowns2923
Passing
Attempts365431
Completions222281
Completion %60.8%65.2%
Yards3,0613,180
Yards / Attempt8.47.4
Touchdowns2120
Interceptions610
Passer Rating146.97137.85
Total Offense
Plays873898
Yards5,8295,217
Yards / Play6.75.8
Yards / Game448.4401.3
Punt Returns
Returns1412
Yards15767
Average11.25.6
Touchdowns10
Kickoff Returns
Returns3131
Yards732645
Average23.620.8
Touchdowns10
Punting
Punts5059
Yards2,0442,369
Average40.940.2
Interception Returns
Returns106
Yards16128
Touchdowns10
Fumbles
Fumbles1611
Lost75
Penalties
Penalties8072
Yards714587
Yards / Game54.945.2
Time of Possession
Per Game30:5229:03
Third Downs
Attempts174177
Conversions7068
Conversion %40.2%38.4%
Fourth Downs
Attempts2822
Conversions1411
Conversion %50.0%50.0%
Red Zone
Trips4549
Scores (TD + FG)3944
Score %86.7%89.8%
Touchdowns3032
TD %66.7%65.3%
Field Goals
Attempts2221
Made1419
Pct63.6%90.5%
PAT Kicking
Attempts5342
Made5140
Pct96.2%95.2%
Two-Point Conversions
Attempts01
Made00
Official-stats conventions: rushing includes sacks as negative attempts (NCAA), so Total Offense = rush + pass. Red-zone Score % counts touchdowns and field goals per trip.
Compare to any opponent →Find similar matchups →Team identity →Situational splits →