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TEX
Texas
LonghornsBalancedSoutheastern Conference8-5#6 (+12.59)
Grades
Percentile grades against every FBS team this season — 99 is best. Curved so an average team reads C, not F.
95· AOverall
Offense
84· BRating
73· BPer play
84· BConsistency
78· BBig plays
Defense
90· A-Rating
46· CPer play
72· BConsistency
Situational
57· CRed-zone O
55· CRed-zone D
26· D3rd down O
26· D3rd down D
Analytical Fingerprint
SS-native team profile — opponent-adjusted and garbage-filtered EPA, success, and explosiveness.
Opp-Adj Offense
+0.125
Opp-Adj Defense
+0.064
higher = better
Offensive EPA/play
+0.069
Defensive EPA/play
-0.009
lower = better
Off Success Rate
49.2%
Def Success Rate
43.3%
allowed · lower = better
Explosive Rate
26.1%
pass EPA > 1.0 · rush > 0.8
Explosive Allowed
23.3%
lower = better
Net EPA/play
+0.078
net · higher = better
Recent EPA Trend
+0.060
last 3 weeks
Points / Drive
2.60
Special Teams
Opponent-adjusted special-teams component of the Final Rating, in expected points per game — positive = better. The four units sum to the net.
Net ST Rating
+4.45
expected pts/game
Kicking
+0.74
own kicking game
Kick Defense
+1.41
vs opponent kicks
Returns
+0.86
own return game
Return Defense
+1.44
vs opponent returns
Performance vs Perception
Our opponent-adjusted model rank vs. how others rate this team. Descriptive — where the model and the consensus disagree.
Model Rank
#6
opponent-adjusted strength
AP Poll
#25
model 19 spots higher
Market (Vegas)
#26
model 20 higher
Recruiting Rank
#5
recruiting 1 spots higher
61 blue-chip recruits
Peer Context
Where Texas ranks among all FBS teams in 2022 (percentile).
Opp-adjusted offense87th
Opp-adjusted defense75th
Offensive EPA/play74th
Defensive EPA/play47th
Offensive success rate76th
Explosiveness79th
Defensive havoc53th
Points per drive76th
Historical Fingerprint
Most statistically similar team-seasons, 2017–2025, by the same 44-feature profile The Archive uses. Descriptive context, not a forecast.
1Louisville2024OA +0.056 / +0.004similar: defensive EPA, turnover rate, offensive success rate3852Louisville2021OA +0.077 / +0.021similar: TD drive rate, passing offense, havoc rate3833Mississippi State2026OA +0.028 / +0.032similar: takeaway rate, offensive EPA, turnover rate3794Oregon2026OA +0.017 / -0.041similar: passing offense, havoc rate, takeaway rate3755Penn State2025OA +0.109 / +0.024similar: offensive EPA, run defense, rushing offense371
2022 Schedule & Results
13 games
| Wk | Opponent | Score | W/L | Spread | ATS | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | vs UL Monroe | 52-10 | W | -37.5 | W | 64.5 | U |
| 2 | vs Alabama | 19-20 | L | +17.5 | W | 56.5 | U |
| 3 | vs UTSA | 41-20 | W | -12.5 | W | 58 | O |
| 4 | @ Texas Tech | 34-37 | L | -6.5 | L | 60 | O |
| 5 | vs West Virginia | 38-20 | W | -9.5 | W | 62.5 | U |
| 6 | @ Oklahoma | 49-0 | W | -8.0 | W | 64.5 | U |
| 7 | vs Iowa State | 24-21 | W | -16.5 | L | 49.5 | U |
| 8 | @ Oklahoma State | 34-41 | L | -6.5 | L | 61 | O |
| 10 | @ Kansas State | 34-27 | W | -2.5 | W | 54.5 | O |
| 11 | vs TCU | 10-17 | L | -7.0 | L | 65 | U |
| 12 | @ Kansas | 55-14 | W | -8.5 | W | 56 | O |
| 13 | vs Baylor | 38-27 | W | - | - | - | - |
| 18 | @ Washington | 20-27 | L | - | - | - | - |
Betting Profile
ATS Record
8-5
61.5%
O/U Record
6-7
46.2%
Straight Up
8-5
61.5%
Home ATS5-2
Away ATS3-3
Favorite ATS7-5
Underdog ATS1-0
Last 5 ATS
WLWWL
Graded against consensus market lines (median across multiple sportsbooks). Games the market never lined — mostly early-season non-FBS matchups — are excluded from ATS and O/U records; individual games may grade differently than closing-line sources.
Situational Profile
Situational EPA percentile across 8 phases (the larger the shape, the more dominant). Within-FBS ranks.
| Situation | OFF EPA | OFF Rank | DEF EPA | DEF Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Overall | +0.069 | 74th | -0.009 | 47th |
| Red Zone | +0.048 | 58th | -0.054 | 56th |
| Third Down | -0.053 | 27th | +0.148 | 27th |
| No Garbage Time | +0.071 | 76th | -0.009 | 45th |
| First Half | +0.171 | 94th | -0.024 | 51th |
| Second Half | -0.037 | 43th | +0.006 | 38th |
| Early Downs | +0.076 | 85th | -0.052 | 60th |
| Passing Downs | +0.047 | 59th | +0.025 | 38th |
| Standard Downs | +0.079 | 81th | -0.029 | 53th |
| Goal to Go | -0.114 | 38th | -0.014 | 47th |
Style & Tendencies
Pass 46.3%Rush 53.7%
Havoc/Game
14.2
Havoc Rate
18.6%
TO Margin
+0.2
Explosive/G
15.5
Yards/Game
429.5
Pts/Drive
2.60
3rd Down%
38.8%
3&Out%
15.2%
Team Statistics
2022 season totals across 13 games — Texas vs. the combined line of every opponent in those games.
| Stat | Texas | Opponents |
|---|---|---|
| Scoring | ||
| Points | 448 | 281 |
| Points / Game | 34.5 | 21.6 |
| First Downs | ||
| Total | 298 | 276 |
| Rushing | 124 | 95 |
| Passing | 147 | 159 |
| Penalty | 27 | 22 |
| Rushing | ||
| Attempts | 470 | 469 |
| Yards | 2,446 | 1,634 |
| Yards / Carry | 5.2 | 3.5 |
| Yards / Game | 188.2 | 125.7 |
| Touchdowns | 29 | 14 |
| Passing | ||
| Attempts | 405 | 501 |
| Completions | 248 | 315 |
| Completion % | 61.2% | 62.9% |
| Yards | 3,138 | 3,155 |
| Yards / Attempt | 7.7 | 6.3 |
| Touchdowns | 22 | 18 |
| Interceptions | 7 | 10 |
| Passer Rating | 140.79 | 123.64 |
| Total Offense | ||
| Plays | 875 | 970 |
| Yards | 5,584 | 4,789 |
| Yards / Play | 6.4 | 4.9 |
| Yards / Game | 429.5 | 368.4 |
| Punt Returns | ||
| Returns | 20 | 11 |
| Yards | 186 | 34 |
| Average | 9.3 | 3.1 |
| Touchdowns | 1 | 0 |
| Kickoff Returns | ||
| Returns | 21 | 35 |
| Yards | 472 | 603 |
| Average | 22.5 | 17.2 |
| Touchdowns | 0 | 0 |
| Punting | ||
| Punts | 47 | 66 |
| Yards | 1,909 | 2,572 |
| Average | 40.6 | 39.0 |
| Interception Returns | ||
| Returns | 10 | 7 |
| Yards | 167 | 89 |
| Touchdowns | 2 | 0 |
| Fumbles | ||
| Fumbles | 7 | 11 |
| Lost | 5 | 4 |
| Penalties | ||
| Penalties | 79 | 76 |
| Yards | 615 | 580 |
| Yards / Game | 47.3 | 44.6 |
| Time of Possession | ||
| Per Game | 27:19 | 32:32 |
| Third Downs | ||
| Attempts | 165 | 213 |
| Conversions | 64 | 88 |
| Conversion % | 38.8% | 41.3% |
| Fourth Downs | ||
| Attempts | 22 | 35 |
| Conversions | 12 | 20 |
| Conversion % | 54.5% | 57.1% |
| Red Zone | ||
| Trips | 58 | 41 |
| Scores (TD + FG) | 52 | 32 |
| Score % | 89.7% | 78.0% |
| Touchdowns | 36 | 21 |
| TD % | 62.1% | 51.2% |
| Field Goals | ||
| Attempts | 26 | 21 |
| Made | 21 | 16 |
| Pct | 80.8% | 76.2% |
| PAT Kicking | ||
| Attempts | 55 | 31 |
| Made | 55 | 31 |
| Pct | 100.0% | 100.0% |
| Two-Point Conversions | ||
| Attempts | 0 | 2 |
| Made | 0 | 1 |
Official-stats conventions: rushing includes sacks as negative attempts (NCAA), so Total Offense = rush + pass. Red-zone Score % counts touchdowns and field goals per trip.