Fourth Down Data
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LSU

LSU

TigersRun-Heavy
Southeastern Conference9-4#34 (+9.64)

Grades

Percentile grades against every FBS team this season — 99 is best. Curved so an average team reads C, not F.

74· BOverall
Offense
68· CRating
74· BPer play
86· BConsistency
45· CBig plays
Defense
80· BRating
74· BPer play
86· BConsistency
Situational
58· CRed-zone O
73· BRed-zone D
40· C3rd down O
51· C3rd down D
How grades work →2017 is the earliest season the model grades — first-year numbers run a touch noisier than later seasons.

Analytical Fingerprint

SS-native team profile — opponent-adjusted and garbage-filtered EPA, success, and explosiveness.

Opp-Adj Offense
+0.097
Opp-Adj Defense
+0.076
higher = better
Offensive EPA/play
+0.050
Defensive EPA/play
-0.110
lower = better
Off Success Rate
49.4%
Def Success Rate
41.4%
allowed · lower = better
Explosive Rate
22.8%
pass EPA > 1.0 · rush > 0.8
Explosive Allowed
20.6%
lower = better
Net EPA/play
+0.160
net · higher = better
Recent EPA Trend
+0.012
last 3 weeks
Points / Drive
2.23

Special Teams

Opponent-adjusted special-teams component of the Final Rating, in expected points per game — positive = better. The four units sum to the net.

Net ST Rating
-1.06
expected pts/game
Kicking
-0.13
own kicking game
Kick Defense
-1.16
vs opponent kicks
Returns
+0.08
own return game
Return Defense
+0.15
vs opponent returns

Performance vs Perception

Our opponent-adjusted model rank vs. how others rate this team. Descriptive — where the model and the consensus disagree.

Model Rank
#34
opponent-adjusted strength
AP Poll
#18
AP 16 spots higher
Market (Vegas)
—
unavailable
Recruiting Rank
#3
recruiting 31 spots higher
58 blue-chip recruits

Peer Context

Where LSU ranks among all FBS teams in 2017 (percentile).

Opp-adjusted offense
81th
Opp-adjusted defense
75th
Offensive EPA/play
75th
Defensive EPA/play
74th
Offensive success rate
82th
Explosiveness
46th
Defensive havoc
92th
Points per drive
59th

Historical Fingerprint

Most statistically similar team-seasons, 2017–2025, by the same 44-feature profile The Archive uses. Descriptive context, not a forecast.

1Michigan2018OA +0.092 / +0.163similar: passing offense, takeaway rate, havoc rate3882Florida2018OA +0.119 / +0.119similar: havoc rate, offensive EPA, defensive EPA3853Missouri2023OA +0.124 / +0.067similar: run defense, havoc rate, rushing offense3764Alabama2023OA +0.054 / +0.111similar: defensive success rate, turnover rate, defensive EPA3745Alabama2017OA +0.125 / +0.182similar: turnover rate, offensive EPA, havoc rate373

2017 Schedule & Results

13 games

WkOpponentScoreW/LSpreadATSTotalO/U
1vs BYU27-0W-2.0L53.5U
2vs Chattanooga45-10W-36.5L--
3@ Mississippi State7-37L-7.5L54.5U
4vs Syracuse35-26W-21.5L56O
5vs Troy21-24L-20.5L48.5U
6@ Florida17-16W-1.5L42.5U
7vs Auburn27-23W+6.5W47O
8@ Ole Miss40-24W-6.5W59O
10@ Alabama10-24L+20.5W45U
11vs Arkansas33-10W-18.0W55U
12@ Tennessee30-10W-17.0W42.5U
13vs Texas A&M45-21W-11.0W51O
18vs Notre Dame17-21L----

Betting Profile

ATS Record
6-6
50.0%
O/U Record
4-7
36.4%
Straight Up
8-4
66.7%
Home ATS3-4
Away ATS3-2
Favorite ATS4-6
Underdog ATS2-0
Last 5 ATS
WWWWW
Full ATS log & splits →
Graded against consensus market lines (median across multiple sportsbooks). Games the market never lined — mostly early-season non-FBS matchups — are excluded from ATS and O/U records; individual games may grade differently than closing-line sources.

Situational Profile

Situational EPA percentile across 8 phases (the larger the shape, the more dominant). Within-FBS ranks.

Pass Off50thRush Off82thRed Zone Off59th3rd Down Off41thPass Def51thRush Def86thRed Zone Def74th3rd Down Def52th
SituationOFF EPAOFF RankDEF EPADEF Rank
Overall+0.03973th-0.10374th
Red Zone+0.03559th-0.12774th
Third Down-0.04441th-0.02952th
No Garbage Time+0.05577th-0.10273th
First Half-0.00653th-0.14381th
Second Half+0.08182th-0.06162th
Early Downs+0.08086th-0.14489th
Passing Downs-0.02850th-0.02851th
Standard Downs+0.06982th-0.14986th
Goal to Go+0.03859th-0.01447th

Style & Tendencies

Pass 34.8%Rush 65.2%
Havoc/Game
15.3
Havoc Rate
23.7%
TO Margin
+0.8
Explosive/G
13.8
Yards/Game
411.1
Pts/Drive
2.23
3rd Down%
41.4%
3&Out%
18.6%

Team Statistics

2017 season totals across 13 games — LSU vs. the combined line of every opponent in those games.
StatLSUOpponents
Scoring
Points354246
Points / Game27.218.9
First Downs
Total260211
Rushing13683
Passing108109
Penalty1619
Rushing
Attempts563433
Yards2,6991,669
Yards / Carry4.83.9
Yards / Game207.6128.4
Touchdowns2516
Passing
Attempts300378
Completions179202
Completion %59.7%53.4%
Yards2,6452,439
Yards / Attempt8.86.5
Touchdowns1711
Interceptions412
Passer Rating149.76110.89
Total Offense
Plays863811
Yards5,3444,108
Yards / Play6.25.1
Yards / Game411.1316.0
Punt Returns
Returns1911
Yards19169
Average10.16.3
Touchdowns20
Kickoff Returns
Returns2138
Yards385760
Average18.320.0
Touchdowns00
Punting
Punts5973
Yards2,3753,294
Average40.345.1
Interception Returns
Returns124
Yards5416
Touchdowns00
Fumbles
Fumbles1014
Lost46
Penalties
Penalties7564
Yards658465
Yards / Game50.635.8
Time of Possession
Per Game32:3527:25
Third Downs
Attempts174178
Conversions7263
Conversion %41.4%35.4%
Fourth Downs
Attempts1021
Conversions48
Conversion %40.0%38.1%
Red Zone
Trips5636
Scores (TD + FG)4330
Score %76.8%83.3%
Touchdowns3319
TD %58.9%52.8%
Field Goals
Attempts2721
Made1618
Pct59.3%85.7%
PAT Kicking
Attempts4325
Made4024
Pct93.0%96.0%
Two-Point Conversions
Attempts12
Made12
Official-stats conventions: rushing includes sacks as negative attempts (NCAA), so Total Offense = rush + pass. Red-zone Score % counts touchdowns and field goals per trip.
Compare to any opponent →Find similar matchups →Team identity →Situational splits →