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FLA
Florida
GatorsRun-HeavySoutheastern Conference10-3#14 (+8.74)
Grades
Percentile grades against every FBS team this season — 99 is best. Curved so an average team reads C, not F.
89· BOverall
Offense
83· BRating
77· BPer play
70· BConsistency
89· BBig plays
Defense
85· BRating
79· BPer play
65· CConsistency
Situational
29· DRed-zone O
49· CRed-zone D
55· C3rd down O
52· C3rd down D
Analytical Fingerprint
SS-native team profile — opponent-adjusted and garbage-filtered EPA, success, and explosiveness.
Opp-Adj Offense
+0.119
Opp-Adj Defense
+0.119
higher = better
Offensive EPA/play
+0.072
Defensive EPA/play
-0.095
lower = better
Off Success Rate
47.9%
Def Success Rate
43.5%
allowed · lower = better
Explosive Rate
26.2%
pass EPA > 1.0 · rush > 0.8
Explosive Allowed
20.9%
lower = better
Net EPA/play
+0.167
net · higher = better
Recent EPA Trend
+0.046
last 3 weeks
Points / Drive
2.55
Special Teams
Opponent-adjusted special-teams component of the Final Rating, in expected points per game — positive = better. The four units sum to the net.
Net ST Rating
+0.69
expected pts/game
Kicking
+1.15
own kicking game
Kick Defense
-0.65
vs opponent kicks
Returns
+0.11
own return game
Return Defense
+0.08
vs opponent returns
Performance vs Perception
Our opponent-adjusted model rank vs. how others rate this team. Descriptive — where the model and the consensus disagree.
Model Rank
#14
opponent-adjusted strength
AP Poll
#7
AP 7 spots higher
Market (Vegas)
—
unavailable
Recruiting Rank
#17
model 3 spots higher
35 blue-chip recruits
Peer Context
Where Florida ranks among all FBS teams in 2018 (percentile).
Opp-adjusted offense92th
Opp-adjusted defense87th
Offensive EPA/play78th
Defensive EPA/play79th
Offensive success rate67th
Explosiveness90th
Defensive havoc89th
Points per drive78th
Historical Fingerprint
Most statistically similar team-seasons, 2017–2025, by the same 44-feature profile The Archive uses. Descriptive context, not a forecast.
1Notre Dame2020OA +0.039 / +0.035similar: offensive EPA, defensive EPA, turnover rate4082App State2017OA -0.032 / +0.085similar: rushing offense, pass defense, defensive EPA3863LSU2017OA +0.097 / +0.076similar: havoc rate, offensive EPA, defensive EPA3864Texas A&M2024OA +0.023 / +0.028similar: takeaway rate, offensive success rate, havoc rate3855Texas2023OA +0.085 / +0.111similar: offensive EPA, TD drive rate, defensive EPA378
2018 Schedule & Results
13 games
| Wk | Opponent | Score | W/L | Spread | ATS | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | vs Charleston Southern | 53-6 | W | +4.0 | W | 51 | O |
| 2 | vs Kentucky | 16-27 | L | -13.5 | L | 52.5 | U |
| 3 | vs Colorado State | 48-10 | W | -21.5 | W | 60 | U |
| 4 | @ Tennessee | 47-21 | W | -3.5 | W | 46 | O |
| 5 | @ Mississippi State | 13-6 | W | +6.5 | W | 49.5 | U |
| 6 | vs LSU | 27-19 | W | +1.0 | W | 44 | O |
| 7 | @ Vanderbilt | 37-27 | W | -9.5 | W | 51 | O |
| 9 | @ Georgia | 17-36 | L | +7.0 | L | 53 | P |
| 10 | vs Missouri | 17-38 | L | -6.0 | L | 59.5 | U |
| 11 | vs South Carolina | 35-31 | W | -7.0 | L | 55 | O |
| 12 | vs Idaho | 63-10 | W | -43.0 | W | 59 | O |
| 13 | @ Florida State | 41-14 | W | -8.5 | W | 52 | O |
| 18 | @ Michigan | 41-15 | W | - | - | - | - |
Betting Profile
ATS Record
8-4
66.7%
O/U Record
7-4-1
63.6%
Straight Up
9-3
75.0%
Home ATS3-3
Away ATS5-1
Favorite ATS5-3
Underdog ATS3-1
Last 5 ATS
LLLWW
Graded against consensus market lines (median across multiple sportsbooks). Games the market never lined — mostly early-season non-FBS matchups — are excluded from ATS and O/U records; individual games may grade differently than closing-line sources.
Situational Profile
Situational EPA percentile across 8 phases (the larger the shape, the more dominant). Within-FBS ranks.
| Situation | OFF EPA | OFF Rank | DEF EPA | DEF Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Overall | +0.060 | 74th | -0.091 | 82th |
| Red Zone | -0.069 | 30th | +0.018 | 49th |
| Third Down | +0.078 | 56th | +0.015 | 53th |
| No Garbage Time | +0.085 | 83th | -0.086 | 79th |
| First Half | +0.042 | 64th | -0.076 | 70th |
| Second Half | +0.078 | 76th | -0.106 | 86th |
| Early Downs | +0.063 | 77th | -0.112 | 89th |
| Passing Downs | +0.066 | 69th | -0.004 | 53th |
| Standard Downs | +0.057 | 74th | -0.142 | 92th |
| Goal to Go | -0.065 | 30th | +0.022 | 61th |
Style & Tendencies
Pass 40.9%Rush 59.1%
Havoc/Game
15.7
Havoc Rate
22.9%
TO Margin
+0.9
Explosive/G
15.5
Yards/Game
426.7
Pts/Drive
2.55
3rd Down%
41.6%
3&Out%
14.0%
Team Statistics
2018 season totals across 13 games — Florida vs. the combined line of every opponent in those games.
| Stat | Florida | Opponents |
|---|---|---|
| Scoring | ||
| Points | 455 | 260 |
| Points / Game | 35.0 | 20.0 |
| First Downs | ||
| Total | 284 | 231 |
| Rushing | 144 | 105 |
| Passing | 123 | 99 |
| Penalty | 17 | 27 |
| Rushing | ||
| Attempts | 526 | 492 |
| Yards | 2,771 | 2,113 |
| Yards / Carry | 5.3 | 4.3 |
| Yards / Game | 213.2 | 162.5 |
| Touchdowns | 23 | 13 |
| Passing | ||
| Attempts | 364 | 380 |
| Completions | 217 | 206 |
| Completion % | 59.6% | 54.2% |
| Yards | 2,776 | 2,350 |
| Yards / Attempt | 7.6 | 6.2 |
| Touchdowns | 28 | 16 |
| Interceptions | 6 | 14 |
| Passer Rating | 145.76 | 112.68 |
| Total Offense | ||
| Plays | 890 | 872 |
| Yards | 5,547 | 4,463 |
| Yards / Play | 6.2 | 5.1 |
| Yards / Game | 426.7 | 343.3 |
| Punt Returns | ||
| Returns | 27 | 16 |
| Yards | 265 | 137 |
| Average | 9.8 | 8.6 |
| Touchdowns | 2 | 0 |
| Kickoff Returns | ||
| Returns | 11 | 34 |
| Yards | 212 | 663 |
| Average | 19.3 | 19.5 |
| Touchdowns | 0 | 0 |
| Punting | ||
| Punts | 56 | 73 |
| Yards | 2,444 | 3,125 |
| Average | 43.6 | 42.8 |
| Interception Returns | ||
| Returns | 14 | 6 |
| Yards | 266 | 24 |
| Touchdowns | 4 | 0 |
| Fumbles | ||
| Fumbles | 17 | 16 |
| Lost | 8 | 12 |
| Penalties | ||
| Penalties | 95 | 87 |
| Yards | 789 | 681 |
| Yards / Game | 60.7 | 52.4 |
| Time of Possession | ||
| Per Game | 29:56 | 30:03 |
| Third Downs | ||
| Attempts | 173 | 195 |
| Conversions | 72 | 73 |
| Conversion % | 41.6% | 37.4% |
| Fourth Downs | ||
| Attempts | 20 | 23 |
| Conversions | 11 | 9 |
| Conversion % | 55.0% | 39.1% |
| Red Zone | ||
| Trips | 56 | 32 |
| Scores (TD + FG) | 47 | 29 |
| Score % | 83.9% | 90.6% |
| Touchdowns | 33 | 18 |
| TD % | 58.9% | 56.3% |
| Field Goals | ||
| Attempts | 20 | 23 |
| Made | 18 | 17 |
| Pct | 90.0% | 73.9% |
| PAT Kicking | ||
| Attempts | 55 | 26 |
| Made | 55 | 25 |
| Pct | 100.0% | 96.2% |
| Two-Point Conversions | ||
| Attempts | 2 | 3 |
| Made | 0 | 1 |
Official-stats conventions: rushing includes sacks as negative attempts (NCAA), so Total Offense = rush + pass. Red-zone Score % counts touchdowns and field goals per trip.