Fourth Down Data
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Notre Dame

Fighting IrishRun-Heavy
FBS Independents10-2#11 (+8.68)

Grades

Percentile grades against every FBS team this season — 99 is best. Curved so an average team reads C, not F.

91· A-Overall
Offense
87· BRating
77· BPer play
86· BConsistency
75· BBig plays
Defense
87· BRating
77· BPer play
71· BConsistency
Situational
12· FRed-zone O
77· BRed-zone D
80· B3rd down O
74· B3rd down D
How grades work →

Analytical Fingerprint

SS-native team profile — opponent-adjusted and garbage-filtered EPA, success, and explosiveness.

Opp-Adj Offense
+0.039
Opp-Adj Defense
+0.035
higher = better
Offensive EPA/play
+0.107
Defensive EPA/play
-0.053
lower = better
Off Success Rate
50.5%
Def Success Rate
44.3%
allowed · lower = better
Explosive Rate
26.2%
pass EPA > 1.0 · rush > 0.8
Explosive Allowed
23.2%
lower = better
Net EPA/play
+0.160
net · higher = better
Recent EPA Trend
-0.088
last 3 weeks
Points / Drive
2.82

Special Teams

Opponent-adjusted special-teams component of the Final Rating, in expected points per game — positive = better. The four units sum to the net.

Net ST Rating
+1.43
expected pts/game
Kicking
+0.85
own kicking game
Kick Defense
-0.66
vs opponent kicks
Returns
+0.17
own return game
Return Defense
+1.07
vs opponent returns

Performance vs Perception

Our opponent-adjusted model rank vs. how others rate this team. Descriptive — where the model and the consensus disagree.

Model Rank
#11
opponent-adjusted strength
AP Poll
#5
AP 6 spots higher
Market (Vegas)
#13
model 2 higher
Recruiting Rank
#9
recruiting 2 spots higher
47 blue-chip recruits

Peer Context

Where Notre Dame ranks among all FBS teams in 2020 (percentile).

Opp-adjusted offense
85th
Opp-adjusted defense
83th
Offensive EPA/play
78th
Defensive EPA/play
77th
Offensive success rate
84th
Explosiveness
76th
Defensive havoc
98th
Points per drive
87th

Historical Fingerprint

Most statistically similar team-seasons, 2017–2025, by the same 44-feature profile The Archive uses. Descriptive context, not a forecast.

1Florida2018OA +0.119 / +0.119similar: offensive EPA, defensive EPA, turnover rate4072Fresno State2022OA +0.017 / +0.055similar: offensive success rate, passing offense, defensive success rate4043North Texas2018OA -0.014 / -0.020similar: turnover rate, defensive success rate, pass defense3894Texas2023OA +0.085 / +0.111similar: offensive EPA, passing offense, rushing offense3855Iowa State2020OA +0.039 / +0.038similar: offensive EPA, pass defense, defensive success rate385

2020 Schedule & Results

12 games

WkOpponentScoreW/LSpreadATSTotalO/U
2vs Duke27-13W-19.5L53.5U
3vs South Florida52-0W-25.5W48O
6vs Florida State42-26W-20.5L52O
7vs Louisville12-7W-17.0L64.5U
8@ Pittsburgh45-3W-10.0W43O
9@ Georgia Tech31-13W-20.0L57.5U
10vs Clemson47-40W+5.5W51.5O
11@ Boston College45-31W-13.5W49.5O
13@ North Carolina31-17W----
14vs Syracuse45-21W-33.5L51.75O
16vs Clemson10-34L+11.0L60U
18@ Alabama14-31L----

Betting Profile

ATS Record
6-6
50.0%
O/U Record
6-6
50.0%
Straight Up
10-2
83.3%
Home ATS2-5
Away ATS4-1
Favorite ATS4-5
Underdog ATS2-1
Last 5 ATS
WWLLW
Full ATS log & splits →
Graded against consensus market lines (median across multiple sportsbooks). Games the market never lined — mostly early-season non-FBS matchups — are excluded from ATS and O/U records; individual games may grade differently than closing-line sources.

Situational Profile

Situational EPA percentile across 8 phases (the larger the shape, the more dominant). Within-FBS ranks.

Pass Off88thRush Off55thRed Zone Off12th3rd Down Off81thPass Def53thRush Def88thRed Zone Def78th3rd Down Def75th
SituationOFF EPAOFF RankDEF EPADEF Rank
Overall+0.09275th-0.05677th
Red Zone-0.22412th-0.13378th
Third Down+0.26381th-0.05175th
No Garbage Time+0.10577th-0.05476th
First Half+0.14081th-0.04673th
Second Half+0.03555th-0.06576th
Early Downs-0.01348th-0.12989th
Passing Downs+0.24388th+0.03853th
Standard Downs+0.01455th-0.11888th
Goal to Go-0.04638th+0.12040th

Style & Tendencies

Pass 41.8%Rush 58.2%
Havoc/Game
15.5
Havoc Rate
24.3%
TO Margin
+0.5
Explosive/G
15.7
Yards/Game
448.5
Pts/Drive
2.82
3rd Down%
49.7%
3&Out%
12.7%

Team Statistics

2020 season totals across 12 games — Notre Dame vs. the combined line of every opponent in those games.
StatNotre DameOpponents
Scoring
Points401236
Points / Game33.419.7
First Downs
Total291209
Rushing13073
Passing131117
Penalty3019
Rushing
Attempts505354
Yards2,5331,356
Yards / Carry5.03.8
Yards / Game211.1113.0
Touchdowns3312
Passing
Attempts362388
Completions231225
Completion %63.8%58.0%
Yards2,8492,767
Yards / Attempt7.97.1
Touchdowns1514
Interceptions37
Passer Rating141.94126.19
Total Offense
Plays867742
Yards5,3824,123
Yards / Play6.25.6
Yards / Game448.5343.6
Punt Returns
Returns1412
Yards12844
Average9.13.7
Touchdowns20
Kickoff Returns
Returns2335
Yards492635
Average21.418.1
Touchdowns00
Punting
Punts4360
Yards1,8392,414
Average42.840.2
Interception Returns
Returns73
Yards6811
Touchdowns00
Fumbles
Fumbles1816
Lost810
Penalties
Penalties5377
Yards456719
Yards / Game38.059.9
Time of Possession
Per Game33:5626:04
Third Downs
Attempts165153
Conversions8248
Conversion %49.7%31.4%
Fourth Downs
Attempts1618
Conversions108
Conversion %62.5%44.4%
Red Zone
Trips6030
Scores (TD + FG)4626
Score %76.7%86.7%
Touchdowns3516
TD %58.3%53.3%
Field Goals
Attempts2318
Made1516
Pct65.2%88.9%
PAT Kicking
Attempts5024
Made5024
Pct100.0%100.0%
Two-Point Conversions
Attempts13
Made01
Official-stats conventions: rushing includes sacks as negative attempts (NCAA), so Total Offense = rush + pass. Red-zone Score % counts touchdowns and field goals per trip.
Compare to any opponent →Find similar matchups →Team identity →Situational splits →