Fourth Down Data
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TEX

Texas

LonghornsBalanced
Southeastern Conference12-2#8 (+10.19)

Grades

Percentile grades against every FBS team this season — 99 is best. Curved so an average team reads C, not F.

94· AOverall
Offense
88· BRating
74· BPer play
89· BConsistency
48· CBig plays
Defense
88· BRating
83· BPer play
91· A-Consistency
Situational
19· DRed-zone O
94· ARed-zone D
42· C3rd down O
96· A3rd down D
How grades work →

Analytical Fingerprint

SS-native team profile — opponent-adjusted and garbage-filtered EPA, success, and explosiveness.

Opp-Adj Offense
+0.085
Opp-Adj Defense
+0.111
higher = better
Offensive EPA/play
+0.075
Defensive EPA/play
-0.070
lower = better
Off Success Rate
50.7%
Def Success Rate
41.3%
allowed · lower = better
Explosive Rate
23.6%
pass EPA > 1.0 · rush > 0.8
Explosive Allowed
21.0%
lower = better
Net EPA/play
+0.145
net · higher = better
Recent EPA Trend
+0.028
last 3 weeks
Points / Drive
2.80

Special Teams

Opponent-adjusted special-teams component of the Final Rating, in expected points per game — positive = better. The four units sum to the net.

Net ST Rating
+1.85
expected pts/game
Kicking
+1.21
own kicking game
Kick Defense
+0.36
vs opponent kicks
Returns
+0.22
own return game
Return Defense
+0.07
vs opponent returns

Performance vs Perception

Our opponent-adjusted model rank vs. how others rate this team. Descriptive — where the model and the consensus disagree.

Model Rank
#8
opponent-adjusted strength
AP Poll
#3
AP 5 spots higher
Market (Vegas)
#9
model 1 higher
Recruiting Rank
#5
recruiting 3 spots higher
64 blue-chip recruits

Peer Context

Where Texas ranks among all FBS teams in 2023 (percentile).

Opp-adjusted offense
86th
Opp-adjusted defense
91th
Offensive EPA/play
75th
Defensive EPA/play
84th
Offensive success rate
93th
Explosiveness
48th
Defensive havoc
74th
Points per drive
87th

Historical Fingerprint

Most statistically similar team-seasons, 2017–2025, by the same 44-feature profile The Archive uses. Descriptive context, not a forecast.

1Ole Miss2024OA +0.042 / +0.058similar: TD drive rate, offensive success rate, defensive success rate4192Clemson2020OA +0.058 / +0.078similar: turnover rate, defensive success rate, rushing offense4103Georgia2022OA +0.185 / +0.203similar: havoc rate, run defense, defensive success rate3914Notre Dame2020OA +0.039 / +0.035similar: offensive EPA, passing offense, rushing offense3855Florida2018OA +0.119 / +0.119similar: offensive EPA, TD drive rate, defensive EPA378

2023 Schedule & Results

14 games

WkOpponentScoreW/LSpreadATSTotalO/U
1vs Rice37-10W-35.0L59U
2@ Alabama34-24W+6.8W58.5U
3vs Wyoming31-10W-29.5L48.5U
4@ Baylor38-6W-14.5W49.5U
5vs Kansas40-14W-16.5W61.5U
6vs Oklahoma30-34L-6.5L60.5O
8@ Houston31-24W-23.5L61U
9vs BYU35-6W-17.5W50U
10vs Kansas State33-30W-4.3L51O
11@ TCU29-26W-10.0L53.5O
12@ Iowa State26-16W-13.0W53.5O
13vs Texas Tech57-7W----
14vs Oklahoma State49-21W-15.0W55.5O
18@ Washington31-37L-3.8L63O

Betting Profile

ATS Record
7-7
50.0%
O/U Record
6-8
42.9%
Straight Up
12-2
85.7%
Home ATS4-4
Away ATS3-3
Favorite ATS6-7
Underdog ATS1-0
Last 5 ATS
LWWWL
Full ATS log & splits →
Graded against consensus market lines (median across multiple sportsbooks). Games the market never lined — mostly early-season non-FBS matchups — are excluded from ATS and O/U records; individual games may grade differently than closing-line sources.

Situational Profile

Situational EPA percentile across 8 phases (the larger the shape, the more dominant). Within-FBS ranks.

Pass Off73thRush Off73thRed Zone Off19th3rd Down Off42thPass Def56thRush Def92thRed Zone Def95th3rd Down Def97th
SituationOFF EPAOFF RankDEF EPADEF Rank
Overall+0.07978th-0.08189th
Red Zone-0.14519th-0.23495th
Third Down+0.16342th-0.13097th
No Garbage Time+0.08077th-0.07484th
First Half+0.05963th-0.11591th
Second Half+0.10184th-0.04870th
Early Downs+0.05484th-0.13388th
Passing Downs+0.14573th+0.01756th
Standard Downs+0.04673th-0.13892th
Goal to Go-0.19015th-0.43293th

Style & Tendencies

Pass 47.4%Rush 52.6%
Havoc/Game
13.6
Havoc Rate
20.6%
TO Margin
+0.4
Explosive/G
14.9
Yards/Game
477.5
Pts/Drive
2.80
3rd Down%
38.4%
3&Out%
11.3%

Team Statistics

2023 season totals across 14 games — Texas vs. the combined line of every opponent in those games.
StatTexasOpponents
Scoring
Points501265
Points / Game35.818.9
First Downs
Total323248
Rushing12872
Passing180156
Penalty1520
Rushing
Attempts527397
Yards2,6381,153
Yards / Carry5.02.9
Yards / Game188.482.4
Touchdowns299
Passing
Attempts475503
Completions317307
Completion %66.7%61.0%
Yards4,0473,561
Yards / Attempt8.57.1
Touchdowns2521
Interceptions916
Passer Rating151.88127.92
Total Offense
Plays1,002900
Yards6,6854,714
Yards / Play6.75.2
Yards / Game477.5336.7
Punt Returns
Returns2414
Yards38176
Average15.95.4
Touchdowns20
Kickoff Returns
Returns3131
Yards636614
Average20.519.8
Touchdowns10
Punting
Punts4172
Yards1,8283,033
Average44.642.1
Interception Returns
Returns169
Yards210137
Touchdowns20
Fumbles
Fumbles1914
Lost98
Penalties
Penalties9263
Yards731485
Yards / Game52.234.6
Time of Possession
Per Game31:1328:39
Third Downs
Attempts185177
Conversions7147
Conversion %38.4%26.6%
Fourth Downs
Attempts3128
Conversions1913
Conversion %61.3%46.4%
Red Zone
Trips6142
Scores (TD + FG)4931
Score %80.3%73.8%
Touchdowns3119
TD %50.8%45.2%
Field Goals
Attempts3522
Made2919
Pct82.9%86.4%
PAT Kicking
Attempts5627
Made5626
Pct100.0%96.3%
Two-Point Conversions
Attempts33
Made11
Official-stats conventions: rushing includes sacks as negative attempts (NCAA), so Total Offense = rush + pass. Red-zone Score % counts touchdowns and field goals per trip.
Compare to any opponent →Find similar matchups →Team identity →Situational splits →