Fourth Down Data
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MISS

Ole Miss

RebelsBalanced
Southeastern Conference10-3#4 (+11.77)

Grades

Percentile grades against every FBS team this season — 99 is best. Curved so an average team reads C, not F.

97· A+Overall
Offense
89· BRating
86· BPer play
88· BConsistency
61· CBig plays
Defense
97· A+Rating
95· APer play
95· AConsistency
Situational
10· FRed-zone O
97· A+Red-zone D
67· C3rd down O
86· B3rd down D
How grades work →

Analytical Fingerprint

SS-native team profile — opponent-adjusted and garbage-filtered EPA, success, and explosiveness.

Opp-Adj Offense
+0.042
Opp-Adj Defense
+0.058
higher = better
Offensive EPA/play
+0.108
Defensive EPA/play
-0.152
lower = better
Off Success Rate
51.1%
Def Success Rate
40.4%
allowed · lower = better
Explosive Rate
24.4%
pass EPA > 1.0 · rush > 0.8
Explosive Allowed
22.8%
lower = better
Net EPA/play
+0.259
net · higher = better
Recent EPA Trend
-0.025
last 3 weeks
Points / Drive
2.83

Special Teams

Opponent-adjusted special-teams component of the Final Rating, in expected points per game — positive = better. The four units sum to the net.

Net ST Rating
+0.64
expected pts/game
Kicking
+1.21
own kicking game
Kick Defense
-0.48
vs opponent kicks
Returns
-0.08
own return game
Return Defense
-0.01
vs opponent returns

Performance vs Perception

Our opponent-adjusted model rank vs. how others rate this team. Descriptive — where the model and the consensus disagree.

Model Rank
#4
opponent-adjusted strength
AP Poll
#11
model 7 spots higher
Market (Vegas)
#2
market 2 higher
Recruiting Rank
#20
model 16 spots higher
27 blue-chip recruits

Peer Context

Where Ole Miss ranks among all FBS teams in 2024 (percentile).

Opp-adjusted offense
86th
Opp-adjusted defense
94th
Offensive EPA/play
87th
Defensive EPA/play
96th
Offensive success rate
95th
Explosiveness
62th
Defensive havoc
100th
Points per drive
90th

Historical Fingerprint

Most statistically similar team-seasons, 2017–2025, by the same 44-feature profile The Archive uses. Descriptive context, not a forecast.

1Alabama2021OA +0.139 / +0.155similar: havoc rate, pass defense, offensive EPA4492East Carolina2025OA +0.034 / +0.081similar: turnover rate, run defense, TD drive rate4213Texas2023OA +0.085 / +0.111similar: TD drive rate, offensive success rate, defensive success rate4194Clemson2020OA +0.058 / +0.078similar: defensive success rate, run defense, havoc rate3685Oklahoma2020OA +0.043 / +0.039similar: offensive EPA, offensive success rate, havoc rate368

2024 Schedule & Results

13 games

WkOpponentScoreW/LSpreadATSTotalO/U
1vs Furman76-0W-42.5W60.5O
2vs Middle Tennessee52-3W-40.5W62.5U
3@ Wake Forest40-6W-22.5W64.5U
4vs Georgia Southern52-13W-36.3W67U
5vs Kentucky17-20L-17.0L54U
6@ South Carolina27-3W-9.0W53.5U
7@ LSU26-29L-3.5L63.5U
9vs Oklahoma26-14W-20.3L49U
10@ Arkansas63-31W-7.0W53.5O
11vs Georgia28-10W+2.5W55U
13@ Florida17-24L-26.0L61.5U
14vs Mississippi State26-14W----
19vs Duke52-20W----

Betting Profile

ATS Record
8-5
61.5%
O/U Record
3-10
23.1%
Straight Up
10-3
76.9%
Home ATS5-3
Away ATS3-2
Favorite ATS7-5
Underdog ATS1-0
Last 5 ATS
WWLLW
Full ATS log & splits →
Graded against consensus market lines (median across multiple sportsbooks). Games the market never lined — mostly early-season non-FBS matchups — are excluded from ATS and O/U records; individual games may grade differently than closing-line sources.

Situational Profile

Situational EPA percentile across 8 phases (the larger the shape, the more dominant). Within-FBS ranks.

Pass Off100thRush Off66thRed Zone Off10th3rd Down Off68thPass Def93thRush Def83thRed Zone Def98th3rd Down Def87th
SituationOFF EPAOFF RankDEF EPADEF Rank
Overall+0.12590th-0.13093th
Red Zone-0.23210th-0.36598th
Third Down+0.17768th-0.10287th
No Garbage Time+0.12490th-0.14596th
First Half+0.17795th-0.11383th
Second Half+0.06269th-0.14894th
Early Downs+0.09490th-0.07971th
Passing Downs+0.312100th-0.18393th
Standard Downs+0.03866th-0.09383th
Goal to Go-0.01743th-0.34592th

Style & Tendencies

Pass 46.5%Rush 53.5%
Havoc/Game
19.9
Havoc Rate
27.8%
TO Margin
+0.8
Explosive/G
14.1
Yards/Game
526.5
Pts/Drive
2.83
3rd Down%
42.3%
3&Out%
12.6%

Team Statistics

2024 season totals across 13 games — Ole Miss vs. the combined line of every opponent in those games.
StatOle MissOpponents
Scoring
Points502187
Points / Game38.614.4
First Downs
Total322242
Rushing12976
Passing176133
Penalty1733
Rushing
Attempts500456
Yards2,2841,046
Yards / Carry4.62.3
Yards / Game175.780.5
Touchdowns297
Passing
Attempts434447
Completions295267
Completion %68.0%59.7%
Yards4,5613,000
Yards / Attempt10.56.7
Touchdowns3113
Interceptions712
Passer Rating176.60120.34
Total Offense
Plays934903
Yards6,8454,046
Yards / Play7.34.5
Yards / Game526.5311.2
Punt Returns
Returns2111
Yards12661
Average6.05.5
Touchdowns00
Kickoff Returns
Returns711
Yards141256
Average20.123.3
Touchdowns01
Punting
Punts3676
Yards1,6763,269
Average46.643.0
Interception Returns
Returns127
Yards8569
Touchdowns10
Fumbles
Fumbles1219
Lost611
Penalties
Penalties9480
Yards936699
Yards / Game72.053.8
Time of Possession
Per Game28:2331:35
Third Downs
Attempts168204
Conversions7165
Conversion %42.3%31.9%
Fourth Downs
Attempts2937
Conversions1719
Conversion %58.6%51.4%
Red Zone
Trips6132
Scores (TD + FG)4923
Score %80.3%71.9%
Touchdowns3616
TD %59.0%50.0%
Field Goals
Attempts2917
Made2414
Pct82.8%82.4%
PAT Kicking
Attempts6020
Made5819
Pct96.7%95.0%
Two-Point Conversions
Attempts20
Made00
Official-stats conventions: rushing includes sacks as negative attempts (NCAA), so Total Offense = rush + pass. Red-zone Score % counts touchdowns and field goals per trip.
Compare to any opponent →Find similar matchups →Team identity →Situational splits →