Fourth Down Data
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ECU

East Carolina

PiratesBalanced
American Conference9-4#43 (+5.37)

Grades

Percentile grades against every FBS team this season — 99 is best. Curved so an average team reads C, not F.

68· COverall
Offense
62· CRating
66· CPer play
78· BConsistency
4· FBig plays
Defense
69· CRating
82· BPer play
81· BConsistency
Situational
42· CRed-zone O
98· A+Red-zone D
89· B3rd down O
92· A-3rd down D
How grades work →

Analytical Fingerprint

SS-native team profile — opponent-adjusted and garbage-filtered EPA, success, and explosiveness.

Opp-Adj Offense
+0.034
Opp-Adj Defense
+0.081
higher = better
Offensive EPA/play
+0.039
Defensive EPA/play
-0.102
lower = better
Off Success Rate
49.2%
Def Success Rate
41.2%
allowed · lower = better
Explosive Rate
19.5%
pass EPA > 1.0 · rush > 0.8
Explosive Allowed
20.4%
lower = better
Net EPA/play
+0.141
net · higher = better
Recent EPA Trend
-0.070
last 3 weeks
Points / Drive
2.57

Special Teams

Opponent-adjusted special-teams component of the Final Rating, in expected points per game — positive = better. The four units sum to the net.

Net ST Rating
-0.95
expected pts/game
Kicking
-0.15
own kicking game
Kick Defense
-0.77
vs opponent kicks
Returns
-0.08
own return game
Return Defense
+0.06
vs opponent returns

Performance vs Perception

Our opponent-adjusted model rank vs. how others rate this team. Descriptive — where the model and the consensus disagree.

Model Rank
#43
opponent-adjusted strength
AP Poll
NR
—
Market (Vegas)
#62
model 19 higher
Recruiting Rank
#71
model 28 spots higher
1 blue-chip recruits

Peer Context

Where East Carolina ranks among all FBS teams in 2025 (percentile).

Opp-adjusted offense
64th
Opp-adjusted defense
79th
Offensive EPA/play
67th
Defensive EPA/play
83th
Offensive success rate
79th
Explosiveness
4th
Defensive havoc
90th
Points per drive
72th

Historical Fingerprint

Most statistically similar team-seasons, 2017–2025, by the same 44-feature profile The Archive uses. Descriptive context, not a forecast.

1Ole Miss2024OA +0.042 / +0.058similar: turnover rate, run defense, TD drive rate4212South Alabama2022OA -0.002 / +0.058similar: defensive EPA, defensive success rate, offensive EPA4123Alabama2021OA +0.139 / +0.155similar: defensive EPA, takeaway rate, rushing offense3854Texas2023OA +0.085 / +0.111similar: defensive EPA, pass defense, TD drive rate3725Troy2023OA -0.020 / +0.169similar: defensive success rate, havoc rate, run defense371

2025 Schedule & Results

13 games

WkOpponentScoreW/LSpreadATSTotalO/U
1@ NC State17-24L----
2vs Campbell56-3W-29.5W55.5O
3@ Coastal Carolina38-0W-7.0W57.5U
4vs BYU13-34L-4.0W52.5U
5vs Army28-6W----
7@ Tulane19-26L-16.5L54.5O
8vs Tulsa41-27W----
10@ Temple45-14W-5.5W57.5O
11vs Charlotte48-22W-31.5L72.5U
12vs Memphis31-27W-2.5W54.5O
13@ UTSA24-58L+24.5L66.5O
14@ Florida Atlantic42-3W-7.0W66.5U
18vs Pittsburgh23-17W+10.5W53U

Betting Profile

ATS Record
8-5
61.5%
O/U Record
5-8
38.5%
Straight Up
9-4
69.2%
Home ATS4-3
Away ATS4-2
Favorite ATS6-2
Underdog ATS2-3
Last 5 ATS
LWLWW
Full ATS log & splits →
Graded against consensus market lines (median across multiple sportsbooks). Games the market never lined — mostly early-season non-FBS matchups — are excluded from ATS and O/U records; individual games may grade differently than closing-line sources.

Situational Profile

Situational EPA percentile across 8 phases (the larger the shape, the more dominant). Within-FBS ranks.

Pass Off73thRush Off60thRed Zone Off42th3rd Down Off90thPass Def82thRush Def94thRed Zone Def99th3rd Down Def93th
SituationOFF EPAOFF RankDEF EPADEF Rank
Overall+0.04567th-0.13792th
Red Zone-0.03942th-0.50299th
Third Down+0.33690th-0.17593th
No Garbage Time+0.04367th-0.10282th
First Half+0.01150th-0.08977th
Second Half+0.08580th-0.18597th
Early Downs+0.01861th-0.11786th
Passing Downs+0.07873th-0.12982th
Standard Downs+0.02960th-0.14294th
Goal to Go+0.13267th-0.45295th

Style & Tendencies

Pass 44.0%Rush 56.0%
Havoc/Game
15.2
Havoc Rate
21.7%
TO Margin
+0.8
Explosive/G
12.5
Yards/Game
449.0
Pts/Drive
2.57
3rd Down%
47.2%
3&Out%
14.7%

Team Statistics

2025 season totals across 13 games — East Carolina vs. the combined line of every opponent in those games.
StatEast CarolinaOpponents
Scoring
Points425261
Points / Game32.720.1
First Downs
Total303250
Rushing12996
Passing151132
Penalty2322
Rushing
Attempts559435
Yards2,2921,563
Yards / Carry4.13.6
Yards / Game176.3120.2
Touchdowns3111
Passing
Attempts440454
Completions285288
Completion %64.8%63.4%
Yards3,5453,000
Yards / Attempt8.16.6
Touchdowns2216
Interceptions610
Passer Rating146.22126.17
Total Offense
Plays999889
Yards5,8374,563
Yards / Play5.85.1
Yards / Game449.0351.0
Punt Returns
Returns139
Yards83101
Average6.411.2
Touchdowns00
Kickoff Returns
Returns1634
Yards281699
Average17.620.6
Touchdowns00
Punting
Punts4859
Yards1,9092,603
Average39.844.1
Interception Returns
Returns106
Yards21568
Touchdowns12
Fumbles
Fumbles1320
Lost814
Penalties
Penalties9474
Yards799640
Yards / Game61.549.2
Time of Possession
Per Game29:0730:54
Third Downs
Attempts199187
Conversions9457
Conversion %47.2%30.5%
Fourth Downs
Attempts3238
Conversions1517
Conversion %46.9%44.7%
Red Zone
Trips6044
Scores (TD + FG)4831
Score %80.0%70.5%
Touchdowns3617
TD %60.0%38.6%
Field Goals
Attempts1920
Made1617
Pct84.2%85.0%
PAT Kicking
Attempts5128
Made5128
Pct100.0%100.0%
Two-Point Conversions
Attempts32
Made11
Official-stats conventions: rushing includes sacks as negative attempts (NCAA), so Total Offense = rush + pass. Red-zone Score % counts touchdowns and field goals per trip.
Compare to any opponent →Find similar matchups →Team identity →Situational splits →