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ALA
Alabama
Crimson TideBalancedSoutheastern Conference13-2#3 (+13.87)
Grades
Percentile grades against every FBS team this season — 99 is best. Curved so an average team reads C, not F.
98· A+Overall
Offense
96· ARating
90· A-Per play
83· BConsistency
57· CBig plays
Defense
94· ARating
87· BPer play
82· BConsistency
Situational
61· CRed-zone O
78· BRed-zone D
96· A3rd down O
81· B3rd down D
Analytical Fingerprint
SS-native team profile — opponent-adjusted and garbage-filtered EPA, success, and explosiveness.
Opp-Adj Offense
+0.139
Opp-Adj Defense
+0.155
higher = better
Offensive EPA/play
+0.117
Defensive EPA/play
-0.120
lower = better
Off Success Rate
50.9%
Def Success Rate
43.8%
allowed · lower = better
Explosive Rate
24.9%
pass EPA > 1.0 · rush > 0.8
Explosive Allowed
23.0%
lower = better
Net EPA/play
+0.237
net · higher = better
Recent EPA Trend
-0.045
last 3 weeks
Points / Drive
3.06
Special Teams
Opponent-adjusted special-teams component of the Final Rating, in expected points per game — positive = better. The four units sum to the net.
Net ST Rating
+2.21
expected pts/game
Kicking
+0.39
own kicking game
Kick Defense
-0.02
vs opponent kicks
Returns
+1.17
own return game
Return Defense
+0.66
vs opponent returns
Performance vs Perception
Our opponent-adjusted model rank vs. how others rate this team. Descriptive — where the model and the consensus disagree.
Model Rank
#3
opponent-adjusted strength
AP Poll
#2
AP 1 spots higher
Market (Vegas)
#1
market 2 higher
Recruiting Rank
#1
recruiting 2 spots higher
81 blue-chip recruits
Peer Context
Where Alabama ranks among all FBS teams in 2021 (percentile).
Opp-adjusted offense93th
Opp-adjusted defense96th
Offensive EPA/play91th
Defensive EPA/play88th
Offensive success rate90th
Explosiveness58th
Defensive havoc98th
Points per drive95th
Historical Fingerprint
Most statistically similar team-seasons, 2017–2025, by the same 44-feature profile The Archive uses. Descriptive context, not a forecast.
1Ole Miss2024OA +0.042 / +0.058similar: havoc rate, pass defense, offensive EPA4492Kansas2026OA +0.033 / +0.069similar: passing offense, run defense, defensive EPA4003Missouri2023OA +0.124 / +0.067similar: turnover rate, takeaway rate, offensive EPA3974Pittsburgh2021OA +0.031 / +0.124similar: rushing offense, defensive EPA, run defense3945LSU2019OA +0.304 / +0.088similar: turnover rate, defensive success rate, passing offense390
2021 Schedule & Results
15 games
| Wk | Opponent | Score | W/L | Spread | ATS | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | @ Miami | 44-13 | W | -19.5 | W | 61.5 | U |
| 2 | vs Mercer | 48-14 | W | -54.5 | L | 59.75 | O |
| 3 | @ Florida | 31-29 | W | -14.5 | L | 59.5 | O |
| 4 | vs Southern Miss | 63-14 | W | -45.0 | W | 58 | O |
| 5 | vs Ole Miss | 42-21 | W | -14.5 | W | 79 | U |
| 6 | @ Texas A&M | 38-41 | L | -18.0 | L | 51 | O |
| 7 | @ Mississippi State | 49-9 | W | -17.5 | W | 57.5 | O |
| 8 | vs Tennessee | 52-24 | W | -25.0 | W | 67.5 | O |
| 10 | vs LSU | 20-14 | W | -28.5 | L | 66 | U |
| 11 | vs New Mexico State | 59-3 | W | -51.5 | W | 67 | U |
| 12 | vs Arkansas | 42-35 | W | -21.0 | L | 57.5 | O |
| 13 | @ Auburn | 24-22 | W | -19.5 | L | 55.5 | U |
| 14 | vs Georgia | 41-24 | W | +6.5 | W | 49.5 | O |
| 18 | vs Cincinnati | 27-6 | W | - | - | - | - |
| 19 | vs Georgia | 18-33 | L | +3.0 | L | 52.75 | U |
Betting Profile
ATS Record
8-7
53.3%
O/U Record
8-7
53.3%
Straight Up
13-2
86.7%
Home ATS6-4
Away ATS2-3
Favorite ATS7-6
Underdog ATS1-1
Last 5 ATS
LLWWL
Graded against consensus market lines (median across multiple sportsbooks). Games the market never lined — mostly early-season non-FBS matchups — are excluded from ATS and O/U records; individual games may grade differently than closing-line sources.
Situational Profile
Situational EPA percentile across 8 phases (the larger the shape, the more dominant). Within-FBS ranks.
| Situation | OFF EPA | OFF Rank | DEF EPA | DEF Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Overall | +0.106 | 90th | -0.074 | 80th |
| Red Zone | +0.031 | 61th | -0.168 | 79th |
| Third Down | +0.423 | 97th | -0.118 | 82th |
| No Garbage Time | +0.118 | 92th | -0.120 | 89th |
| First Half | +0.140 | 89th | -0.150 | 92th |
| Second Half | +0.070 | 82th | +0.003 | 49th |
| Early Downs | +0.011 | 56th | -0.062 | 70th |
| Passing Downs | +0.255 | 97th | -0.057 | 68th |
| Standard Downs | +0.034 | 59th | -0.084 | 76th |
| Goal to Go | -0.219 | 21th | -0.364 | 86th |
Style & Tendencies
Pass 51.0%Rush 49.0%
Havoc/Game
16.2
Havoc Rate
24.4%
TO Margin
+0.5
Explosive/G
15.1
Yards/Game
488.2
Pts/Drive
3.06
3rd Down%
52.0%
3&Out%
14.7%
Team Statistics
2021 season totals across 15 games — Alabama vs. the combined line of every opponent in those games.
| Stat | Alabama | Opponents |
|---|---|---|
| Scoring | ||
| Points | 598 | 302 |
| Points / Game | 39.9 | 20.1 |
| First Downs | ||
| Total | 365 | 266 |
| Rushing | 129 | 86 |
| Passing | 214 | 141 |
| Penalty | 22 | 39 |
| Rushing | ||
| Attempts | 548 | 485 |
| Yards | 2,250 | 1,290 |
| Yards / Carry | 4.1 | 2.7 |
| Yards / Game | 150.0 | 86.0 |
| Touchdowns | 21 | 9 |
| Passing | ||
| Attempts | 571 | 471 |
| Completions | 380 | 297 |
| Completion % | 66.5% | 63.1% |
| Yards | 5,073 | 3,271 |
| Yards / Attempt | 8.9 | 6.9 |
| Touchdowns | 48 | 25 |
| Interceptions | 7 | 15 |
| Passer Rating | 166.47 | 132.54 |
| Total Offense | ||
| Plays | 1,119 | 956 |
| Yards | 7,323 | 4,561 |
| Yards / Play | 6.5 | 4.8 |
| Yards / Game | 488.2 | 304.1 |
| Punt Returns | ||
| Returns | 34 | 13 |
| Yards | 272 | 85 |
| Average | 8.0 | 6.5 |
| Touchdowns | 2 | 0 |
| Kickoff Returns | ||
| Returns | 19 | 24 |
| Yards | 456 | 455 |
| Average | 24.0 | 19.0 |
| Touchdowns | 2 | 1 |
| Punting | ||
| Punts | 49 | 88 |
| Yards | 1,878 | 3,752 |
| Average | 38.3 | 42.6 |
| Interception Returns | ||
| Returns | 15 | 7 |
| Yards | 189 | 96 |
| Touchdowns | 2 | 1 |
| Fumbles | ||
| Fumbles | 17 | 12 |
| Lost | 6 | 6 |
| Penalties | ||
| Penalties | 107 | 100 |
| Yards | 1,005 | 731 |
| Yards / Game | 67.0 | 48.7 |
| Time of Possession | ||
| Per Game | 31:53 | 28:07 |
| Third Downs | ||
| Attempts | 223 | 208 |
| Conversions | 116 | 65 |
| Conversion % | 52.0% | 31.3% |
| Fourth Downs | ||
| Attempts | 17 | 31 |
| Conversions | 9 | 17 |
| Conversion % | 52.9% | 54.8% |
| Red Zone | ||
| Trips | 68 | 40 |
| Scores (TD + FG) | 63 | 34 |
| Score % | 92.6% | 85.0% |
| Touchdowns | 46 | 22 |
| TD % | 67.6% | 55.0% |
| Field Goals | ||
| Attempts | 29 | 17 |
| Made | 23 | 17 |
| Pct | 79.3% | 100.0% |
| PAT Kicking | ||
| Attempts | 72 | 34 |
| Made | 71 | 33 |
| Pct | 98.6% | 97.1% |
| Two-Point Conversions | ||
| Attempts | 5 | 4 |
| Made | 4 | 1 |
Official-stats conventions: rushing includes sacks as negative attempts (NCAA), so Total Offense = rush + pass. Red-zone Score % counts touchdowns and field goals per trip.