Fourth Down Data
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PITT

Pittsburgh

PanthersBalanced
Atlantic Coast Conference11-3#12 (+8.49)

Grades

Percentile grades against every FBS team this season — 99 is best. Curved so an average team reads C, not F.

91· A-Overall
Offense
88· BRating
83· BPer play
92· A-Consistency
83· BBig plays
Defense
89· BRating
84· BPer play
87· BConsistency
Situational
96· ARed-zone O
48· CRed-zone D
92· A-3rd down O
76· B3rd down D
How grades work →

Analytical Fingerprint

SS-native team profile — opponent-adjusted and garbage-filtered EPA, success, and explosiveness.

Opp-Adj Offense
+0.031
Opp-Adj Defense
+0.124
higher = better
Offensive EPA/play
+0.082
Defensive EPA/play
-0.100
lower = better
Off Success Rate
51.1%
Def Success Rate
42.5%
allowed · lower = better
Explosive Rate
26.0%
pass EPA > 1.0 · rush > 0.8
Explosive Allowed
24.6%
lower = better
Net EPA/play
+0.182
net · higher = better
Recent EPA Trend
-0.155
last 3 weeks
Points / Drive
2.85

Special Teams

Opponent-adjusted special-teams component of the Final Rating, in expected points per game — positive = better. The four units sum to the net.

Net ST Rating
+0.44
expected pts/game
Kicking
+0.51
own kicking game
Kick Defense
-0.41
vs opponent kicks
Returns
+0.08
own return game
Return Defense
+0.25
vs opponent returns

Performance vs Perception

Our opponent-adjusted model rank vs. how others rate this team. Descriptive — where the model and the consensus disagree.

Model Rank
#12
opponent-adjusted strength
AP Poll
#13
model 1 spots higher
Market (Vegas)
#15
model 3 higher
Recruiting Rank
#49
model 37 spots higher
5 blue-chip recruits

Peer Context

Where Pittsburgh ranks among all FBS teams in 2021 (percentile).

Opp-adjusted offense
63th
Opp-adjusted defense
92th
Offensive EPA/play
83th
Defensive EPA/play
85th
Offensive success rate
93th
Explosiveness
84th
Defensive havoc
94th
Points per drive
88th

Historical Fingerprint

Most statistically similar team-seasons, 2017–2025, by the same 44-feature profile The Archive uses. Descriptive context, not a forecast.

1Alabama2021OA +0.139 / +0.155similar: rushing offense, defensive EPA, run defense3942Oklahoma2020OA +0.043 / +0.039similar: offensive EPA, TD drive rate, havoc rate3643Syracuse2026OA +0.031 / +0.060similar: havoc rate, offensive EPA, run defense3634Baylor2019OA +0.062 / +0.147similar: defensive EPA, run defense, rushing offense3535Ohio State2017OA +0.212 / +0.167similar: defensive EPA, run defense, takeaway rate352

2021 Schedule & Results

14 games

WkOpponentScoreW/LSpreadATSTotalO/U
1vs Massachusetts51-7W-38.0W56O
2@ Tennessee41-34W-2.0W52O
3vs Western Michigan41-44L-15.0L59O
4vs New Hampshire77-7W-29.0W53.5O
5@ Georgia Tech52-21W-3.0W58.5O
7@ Virginia Tech28-7W-4.8W57.75U
8vs Clemson27-17W-3.0W48U
9vs Miami34-38L-9.0L61O
10@ Duke54-29W-6.5W73.5U
11vs North Carolina30-23W----
12vs Virginia48-38W-14.5L66O
13@ Syracuse31-14W-13.0W58.5U
14@ Wake Forest45-21W-3.0W71.5U
18@ Michigan State21-31L----

Betting Profile

ATS Record
10-4
71.4%
O/U Record
8-6
57.1%
Straight Up
11-3
78.6%
Home ATS4-3
Away ATS6-1
Favorite ATS10-3
Underdog ATS0-1
Last 5 ATS
WLWWL
Full ATS log & splits →
Graded against consensus market lines (median across multiple sportsbooks). Games the market never lined — mostly early-season non-FBS matchups — are excluded from ATS and O/U records; individual games may grade differently than closing-line sources.

Situational Profile

Situational EPA percentile across 8 phases (the larger the shape, the more dominant). Within-FBS ranks.

Pass Off73thRush Off84thRed Zone Off97th3rd Down Off93thPass Def71thRush Def80thRed Zone Def48th3rd Down Def77th
SituationOFF EPAOFF RankDEF EPADEF Rank
Overall+0.08685th-0.08986th
Red Zone+0.24597th-0.02148th
Third Down+0.36293th-0.08677th
No Garbage Time+0.08383th-0.10386th
First Half+0.13989th-0.09981th
Second Half+0.02259th-0.07877th
Early Downs+0.04971th-0.01651th
Passing Downs+0.07273th-0.08971th
Standard Downs+0.09384th-0.08980th
Goal to Go+0.28991th-0.13768th

Style & Tendencies

Pass 50.9%Rush 49.1%
Havoc/Game
17.1
Havoc Rate
23.6%
TO Margin
+0.6
Explosive/G
17.4
Yards/Game
486.6
Pts/Drive
2.85
3rd Down%
44.3%
3&Out%
21.7%

Team Statistics

2021 season totals across 14 games — Pittsburgh vs. the combined line of every opponent in those games.
StatPittsburghOpponents
Scoring
Points580331
Points / Game41.423.6
First Downs
Total363278
Rushing12880
Passing208162
Penalty2736
Rushing
Attempts525472
Yards2,0891,249
Yards / Carry4.02.6
Yards / Game149.289.2
Touchdowns2615
Passing
Attempts544506
Completions367302
Completion %67.5%59.7%
Yards4,7233,700
Yards / Attempt8.77.3
Touchdowns4426
Interceptions816
Passer Rating164.14131.74
Total Offense
Plays1,069978
Yards6,8124,949
Yards / Play6.45.1
Yards / Game486.6353.5
Punt Returns
Returns3012
Yards27868
Average9.35.7
Touchdowns00
Kickoff Returns
Returns1945
Yards4451,002
Average23.422.3
Touchdowns11
Punting
Punts6284
Yards2,5233,587
Average40.742.7
Interception Returns
Returns168
Yards265163
Touchdowns41
Fumbles
Fumbles1413
Lost77
Penalties
Penalties94101
Yards895907
Yards / Game63.964.8
Time of Possession
Per Game30:5629:00
Third Downs
Attempts203203
Conversions9068
Conversion %44.3%33.5%
Fourth Downs
Attempts2525
Conversions177
Conversion %68.0%28.0%
Red Zone
Trips6947
Scores (TD + FG)6136
Score %88.4%76.6%
Touchdowns4928
TD %71.0%59.6%
Field Goals
Attempts2114
Made1710
Pct81.0%71.4%
PAT Kicking
Attempts7640
Made7139
Pct93.4%97.5%
Two-Point Conversions
Attempts03
Made01
Official-stats conventions: rushing includes sacks as negative attempts (NCAA), so Total Offense = rush + pass. Red-zone Score % counts touchdowns and field goals per trip.
Compare to any opponent →Find similar matchups →Team identity →Situational splits →