Fourth Down Data
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OSU

Ohio State

BuckeyesBalanced
Big Ten Conference12-2#1 (+33.54)

Grades

Percentile grades against every FBS team this season — 99 is best. Curved so an average team reads C, not F.

99· A+Overall
Offense
98· A+Rating
92· A-Per play
98· A+Consistency
83· BBig plays
Defense
95· ARating
85· BPer play
89· BConsistency
Situational
48· CRed-zone O
47· CRed-zone D
49· C3rd down O
68· C3rd down D
How grades work →2017 is the earliest season the model grades — first-year numbers run a touch noisier than later seasons.

Analytical Fingerprint

SS-native team profile — opponent-adjusted and garbage-filtered EPA, success, and explosiveness.

Opp-Adj Offense
+0.212
Opp-Adj Defense
+0.167
higher = better
Offensive EPA/play
+0.147
Defensive EPA/play
-0.161
lower = better
Off Success Rate
52.8%
Def Success Rate
41.1%
allowed · lower = better
Explosive Rate
25.9%
pass EPA > 1.0 · rush > 0.8
Explosive Allowed
22.2%
lower = better
Net EPA/play
+0.308
net · higher = better
Recent EPA Trend
-0.117
last 3 weeks
Points / Drive
3.14

Special Teams

Opponent-adjusted special-teams component of the Final Rating, in expected points per game — positive = better. The four units sum to the net.

Net ST Rating
+1.36
expected pts/game
Kicking
+1.07
own kicking game
Kick Defense
+0.27
vs opponent kicks
Returns
-0.06
own return game
Return Defense
+0.08
vs opponent returns

Performance vs Perception

Our opponent-adjusted model rank vs. how others rate this team. Descriptive — where the model and the consensus disagree.

Model Rank
#1
opponent-adjusted strength
AP Poll
#5
model 4 spots higher
Market (Vegas)
—
unavailable
Recruiting Rank
#2
model 1 spots higher
59 blue-chip recruits

Peer Context

Where Ohio State ranks among all FBS teams in 2017 (percentile).

Opp-adjusted offense
98th
Opp-adjusted defense
93th
Offensive EPA/play
92th
Defensive EPA/play
86th
Offensive success rate
98th
Explosiveness
84th
Defensive havoc
98th
Points per drive
96th

Historical Fingerprint

Most statistically similar team-seasons, 2017–2025, by the same 44-feature profile The Archive uses. Descriptive context, not a forecast.

1Syracuse2026OA +0.031 / +0.060similar: defensive success rate, TD drive rate, run defense4092Penn State2024OA +0.078 / +0.056similar: offensive success rate, defensive EPA, havoc rate4023Clemson2020OA +0.058 / +0.078similar: havoc rate, TD drive rate, takeaway rate3984Iowa State2020OA +0.039 / +0.038similar: defensive EPA, passing offense, offensive success rate3835Texas A&M2020OA +0.039 / +0.018similar: turnover rate, rushing offense, offensive EPA374

2017 Schedule & Results

14 games

WkOpponentScoreW/LSpreadATSTotalO/U
1@ Indiana49-21W-10.0W65U
2vs Oklahoma16-31L-7.5L64.5U
3vs Army38-7W-32.5L55U
4vs UNLV54-21W-40.5L67O
5@ Rutgers56-0W-28.5W54.5O
6vs Maryland62-14W-30.0W60O
7@ Nebraska56-14W-23.5W57.5O
9vs Penn State39-38W-7.0L56.5O
10@ Iowa24-55L-21.0L55O
11vs Michigan State48-3W-17.5W56U
12vs Illinois52-14W-41.0L54O
13@ Michigan31-20W-12.5L49.5O
14@ Wisconsin27-21W-3.5W51U
18vs USC24-7W----

Betting Profile

ATS Record
6-7
46.2%
O/U Record
8-5
61.5%
Straight Up
11-2
84.6%
Home ATS3-5
Away ATS3-2
Favorite ATS6-7
Underdog ATS0-0
Last 5 ATS
LWLLW
Full ATS log & splits →
Graded against consensus market lines (median across multiple sportsbooks). Games the market never lined — mostly early-season non-FBS matchups — are excluded from ATS and O/U records; individual games may grade differently than closing-line sources.

Situational Profile

Situational EPA percentile across 8 phases (the larger the shape, the more dominant). Within-FBS ranks.

Pass Off56thRush Off94thRed Zone Off48th3rd Down Off50thPass Def74thRush Def81thRed Zone Def47th3rd Down Def68th
SituationOFF EPAOFF RankDEF EPADEF Rank
Overall+0.08986th-0.12177th
Red Zone-0.01748th+0.01647th
Third Down-0.00550th-0.15068th
No Garbage Time+0.13592th-0.14083th
First Half+0.16792th-0.19390th
Second Half+0.00859th-0.04157th
Early Downs+0.12897th-0.13987th
Passing Downs-0.00856th-0.11774th
Standard Downs+0.12694th-0.12381th
Goal to Go+0.20180th+0.3936th

Style & Tendencies

Pass 42.8%Rush 57.2%
Havoc/Game
17.7
Havoc Rate
25.6%
TO Margin
+0.4
Explosive/G
13.4
Yards/Game
506.0
Pts/Drive
3.14
3rd Down%
46.5%
3&Out%
19.9%

Team Statistics

2017 season totals across 14 games — Ohio State vs. the combined line of every opponent in those games.
StatOhio StateOpponents
Scoring
Points576266
Points / Game41.119.0
First Downs
Total354235
Rushing17377
Passing151127
Penalty3031
Rushing
Attempts589501
Yards3,4051,471
Yards / Carry5.82.9
Yards / Game243.2105.1
Touchdowns3413
Passing
Attempts440447
Completions287246
Completion %65.2%55.0%
Yards3,6792,742
Yards / Attempt8.46.1
Touchdowns3916
Interceptions1013
Passer Rating160.17112.56
Total Offense
Plays1,029948
Yards7,0844,213
Yards / Play6.94.4
Yards / Game506.0300.9
Punt Returns
Returns307
Yards16654
Average5.57.7
Touchdowns00
Kickoff Returns
Returns2882
Yards6781,428
Average24.217.4
Touchdowns02
Punting
Punts5190
Yards2,2563,757
Average44.241.7
Interception Returns
Returns1310
Yards160144
Touchdowns13
Fumbles
Fumbles1716
Lost911
Penalties
Penalties9783
Yards943721
Yards / Game67.451.5
Time of Possession
Per Game28:2431:36
Third Downs
Attempts185215
Conversions8669
Conversion %46.5%32.1%
Fourth Downs
Attempts2227
Conversions1513
Conversion %68.2%48.1%
Red Zone
Trips6840
Scores (TD + FG)6129
Score %89.7%72.5%
Touchdowns4523
TD %66.2%57.5%
Field Goals
Attempts2113
Made177
Pct81.0%53.8%
PAT Kicking
Attempts7134
Made7133
Pct100.0%97.1%
Two-Point Conversions
Attempts41
Made11
Official-stats conventions: rushing includes sacks as negative attempts (NCAA), so Total Offense = rush + pass. Red-zone Score % counts touchdowns and field goals per trip.
Compare to any opponent →Find similar matchups →Team identity →Situational splits →