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TA&M
Texas A&M
AggiesBalancedSoutheastern Conference9-1#22 (+6.22)
Grades
Percentile grades against every FBS team this season — 99 is best. Curved so an average team reads C, not F.
83· BOverall
Offense
86· BRating
87· BPer play
84· BConsistency
84· BBig plays
Defense
80· BRating
63· CPer play
81· BConsistency
Situational
67· CRed-zone O
23· DRed-zone D
83· B3rd down O
70· B3rd down D
Analytical Fingerprint
SS-native team profile — opponent-adjusted and garbage-filtered EPA, success, and explosiveness.
Opp-Adj Offense
+0.039
Opp-Adj Defense
+0.018
higher = better
Offensive EPA/play
+0.132
Defensive EPA/play
-0.017
lower = better
Off Success Rate
51.8%
Def Success Rate
43.7%
allowed · lower = better
Explosive Rate
26.6%
pass EPA > 1.0 · rush > 0.8
Explosive Allowed
24.0%
lower = better
Net EPA/play
+0.149
net · higher = better
Recent EPA Trend
+0.207
last 3 weeks
Points / Drive
2.70
Special Teams
Opponent-adjusted special-teams component of the Final Rating, in expected points per game — positive = better. The four units sum to the net.
Net ST Rating
-0.32
expected pts/game
Kicking
+0.36
own kicking game
Kick Defense
+0.20
vs opponent kicks
Returns
-0.82
own return game
Return Defense
-0.06
vs opponent returns
Performance vs Perception
Our opponent-adjusted model rank vs. how others rate this team. Descriptive — where the model and the consensus disagree.
Model Rank
#22
opponent-adjusted strength
AP Poll
#4
AP 18 spots higher
Market (Vegas)
#22
model & market agree
Recruiting Rank
#8
recruiting 14 spots higher
48 blue-chip recruits
Peer Context
Where Texas A&M ranks among all FBS teams in 2020 (percentile).
Opp-adjusted offense88th
Opp-adjusted defense69th
Offensive EPA/play88th
Defensive EPA/play64th
Offensive success rate87th
Explosiveness84th
Defensive havoc94th
Points per drive82th
Historical Fingerprint
Most statistically similar team-seasons, 2017–2025, by the same 44-feature profile The Archive uses. Descriptive context, not a forecast.
1NC State2017OA +0.101 / +0.021similar: pass defense, takeaway rate, TD drive rate3852Ohio State2022OA +0.221 / +0.040similar: defensive EPA, pass defense, rushing offense3783Washington2017OA +0.094 / +0.146similar: offensive EPA, defensive success rate, turnover rate3754Oregon2024OA +0.060 / +0.016similar: defensive EPA, havoc rate, turnover rate3755Ohio State2017OA +0.212 / +0.167similar: turnover rate, rushing offense, offensive EPA374
2020 Schedule & Results
10 games
| Wk | Opponent | Score | W/L | Spread | ATS | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | vs Vanderbilt | 17-12 | W | -30.5 | L | 46 | U |
| 5 | @ Alabama | 24-52 | L | +18.0 | L | 52.5 | O |
| 6 | vs Florida | 41-38 | W | +6.5 | W | 58 | O |
| 7 | @ Mississippi State | 28-14 | W | -6.5 | W | 54.5 | U |
| 9 | vs Arkansas | 42-31 | W | -12.5 | L | 54.5 | O |
| 10 | @ South Carolina | 48-3 | W | -10.0 | W | 58.5 | U |
| 13 | vs LSU | 20-7 | W | -14.5 | L | 63.5 | U |
| 14 | @ Auburn | 31-20 | W | -6.5 | W | 48.5 | O |
| 16 | @ Tennessee | 34-13 | W | -14.0 | W | 51 | U |
| 18 | @ North Carolina | 41-27 | W | -7.5 | W | 65.5 | O |
Betting Profile
ATS Record
6-4
60.0%
O/U Record
5-5
50.0%
Straight Up
9-1
90.0%
Home ATS1-3
Away ATS5-1
Favorite ATS5-3
Underdog ATS1-1
Last 5 ATS
WLWWW
Graded against consensus market lines (median across multiple sportsbooks). Games the market never lined — mostly early-season non-FBS matchups — are excluded from ATS and O/U records; individual games may grade differently than closing-line sources.
Situational Profile
Situational EPA percentile across 8 phases (the larger the shape, the more dominant). Within-FBS ranks.
| Situation | OFF EPA | OFF Rank | DEF EPA | DEF Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Overall | +0.147 | 90th | -0.013 | 63th |
| Red Zone | +0.087 | 68th | +0.124 | 23th |
| Third Down | +0.278 | 84th | -0.024 | 70th |
| No Garbage Time | +0.130 | 87th | -0.046 | 72th |
| First Half | +0.178 | 88th | +0.019 | 48th |
| Second Half | +0.114 | 82th | -0.046 | 71th |
| Early Downs | +0.151 | 95th | +0.063 | 24th |
| Passing Downs | +0.058 | 55th | -0.159 | 92th |
| Standard Downs | +0.186 | 95th | +0.074 | 22th |
| Goal to Go | -0.201 | 20th | +0.454 | 5th |
Style & Tendencies
Pass 44.5%Rush 55.5%
Havoc/Game
14.2
Havoc Rate
23.7%
TO Margin
+0.6
Explosive/G
16.7
Yards/Game
439.2
Pts/Drive
2.70
3rd Down%
54.9%
3&Out%
17.6%
Team Statistics
2020 season totals across 10 games — Texas A&M vs. the combined line of every opponent in those games.
| Stat | Texas A&M | Opponents |
|---|---|---|
| Scoring | ||
| Points | 326 | 217 |
| Points / Game | 32.6 | 21.7 |
| First Downs | ||
| Total | 234 | 175 |
| Rushing | 111 | 56 |
| Passing | 107 | 100 |
| Penalty | 16 | 19 |
| Rushing | ||
| Attempts | 376 | 283 |
| Yards | 2,051 | 920 |
| Yards / Carry | 5.5 | 3.3 |
| Yards / Game | 205.1 | 92.0 |
| Touchdowns | 21 | 6 |
| Passing | ||
| Attempts | 302 | 310 |
| Completions | 190 | 196 |
| Completion % | 62.9% | 63.2% |
| Yards | 2,341 | 2,253 |
| Yards / Attempt | 7.8 | 7.3 |
| Touchdowns | 20 | 19 |
| Interceptions | 4 | 10 |
| Passer Rating | 147.23 | 138.05 |
| Total Offense | ||
| Plays | 678 | 593 |
| Yards | 4,392 | 3,173 |
| Yards / Play | 6.5 | 5.4 |
| Yards / Game | 439.2 | 317.3 |
| Punt Returns | ||
| Returns | 16 | 4 |
| Yards | 96 | 17 |
| Average | 6.0 | 4.3 |
| Touchdowns | 0 | 0 |
| Kickoff Returns | ||
| Returns | 3 | 7 |
| Yards | 30 | 142 |
| Average | 10.0 | 20.3 |
| Touchdowns | 0 | 0 |
| Punting | ||
| Punts | 36 | 46 |
| Yards | 1,459 | 1,873 |
| Average | 40.5 | 40.7 |
| Interception Returns | ||
| Returns | 10 | 4 |
| Yards | 116 | 152 |
| Touchdowns | 1 | 2 |
| Fumbles | ||
| Fumbles | 11 | 8 |
| Lost | 4 | 4 |
| Penalties | ||
| Penalties | 62 | 46 |
| Yards | 579 | 365 |
| Yards / Game | 57.9 | 36.5 |
| Time of Possession | ||
| Per Game | 34:49 | 25:11 |
| Third Downs | ||
| Attempts | 133 | 123 |
| Conversions | 73 | 43 |
| Conversion % | 54.9% | 35.0% |
| Fourth Downs | ||
| Attempts | 8 | 14 |
| Conversions | 3 | 8 |
| Conversion % | 37.5% | 57.1% |
| Red Zone | ||
| Trips | 47 | 25 |
| Scores (TD + FG) | 41 | 23 |
| Score % | 87.2% | 92.0% |
| Touchdowns | 31 | 16 |
| TD % | 66.0% | 64.0% |
| Field Goals | ||
| Attempts | 13 | 14 |
| Made | 11 | 9 |
| Pct | 84.6% | 64.3% |
| PAT Kicking | ||
| Attempts | 42 | 27 |
| Made | 41 | 26 |
| Pct | 97.6% | 96.3% |
| Two-Point Conversions | ||
| Attempts | 0 | 0 |
| Made | 0 | 0 |
Official-stats conventions: rushing includes sacks as negative attempts (NCAA), so Total Offense = rush + pass. Red-zone Score % counts touchdowns and field goals per trip.