Fourth Down Data
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OSU

Ohio State

BuckeyesBalanced
Big Ten Conference11-2#5 (+13.33)

Grades

Percentile grades against every FBS team this season — 99 is best. Curved so an average team reads C, not F.

96· AOverall
Offense
98· A+Rating
96· APer play
98· A+Consistency
80· BBig plays
Defense
84· BRating
62· CPer play
90· A-Consistency
Situational
87· BRed-zone O
40· CRed-zone D
83· B3rd down O
87· B3rd down D
How grades work →

Analytical Fingerprint

SS-native team profile — opponent-adjusted and garbage-filtered EPA, success, and explosiveness.

Opp-Adj Offense
+0.221
Opp-Adj Defense
+0.040
higher = better
Offensive EPA/play
+0.190
Defensive EPA/play
-0.056
lower = better
Off Success Rate
54.2%
Def Success Rate
40.9%
allowed · lower = better
Explosive Rate
26.4%
pass EPA > 1.0 · rush > 0.8
Explosive Allowed
22.8%
lower = better
Net EPA/play
+0.246
net · higher = better
Recent EPA Trend
-0.089
last 3 weeks
Points / Drive
3.38

Special Teams

Opponent-adjusted special-teams component of the Final Rating, in expected points per game — positive = better. The four units sum to the net.

Net ST Rating
+0.92
expected pts/game
Kicking
+1.14
own kicking game
Kick Defense
-0.28
vs opponent kicks
Returns
-0.68
own return game
Return Defense
+0.74
vs opponent returns

Performance vs Perception

Our opponent-adjusted model rank vs. how others rate this team. Descriptive — where the model and the consensus disagree.

Model Rank
#5
opponent-adjusted strength
AP Poll
#4
AP 1 spots higher
Market (Vegas)
#2
market 3 higher
Recruiting Rank
#4
recruiting 1 spots higher
64 blue-chip recruits

Peer Context

Where Ohio State ranks among all FBS teams in 2022 (percentile).

Opp-adjusted offense
99th
Opp-adjusted defense
67th
Offensive EPA/play
97th
Defensive EPA/play
63th
Offensive success rate
96th
Explosiveness
81th
Defensive havoc
90th
Points per drive
96th

Historical Fingerprint

Most statistically similar team-seasons, 2017–2025, by the same 44-feature profile The Archive uses. Descriptive context, not a forecast.

1Alabama2018OA +0.280 / +0.145similar: passing offense, offensive success rate, offensive EPA4482LSU2019OA +0.304 / +0.088similar: defensive EPA, offensive success rate, offensive EPA3963Kansas2026OA +0.033 / +0.069similar: passing offense, offensive success rate, defensive success rate3904Alabama2021OA +0.139 / +0.155similar: passing offense, run defense, TD drive rate3845Missouri2023OA +0.124 / +0.067similar: havoc rate, turnover rate, takeaway rate384

2022 Schedule & Results

13 games

WkOpponentScoreW/LSpreadATSTotalO/U
1vs Notre Dame21-10W-17.0L59U
2vs Arkansas State45-12W-44.5L68.5U
3vs Toledo77-21W-31.0W62O
4vs Wisconsin52-21W-19.0W57O
5vs Rutgers49-10W-40.0L59P
6@ Michigan State49-20W-27.0W65O
8vs Iowa54-10W-29.0W49.5O
9@ Penn State44-31W-15.5L61O
10@ Northwestern21-7W-38.5L60.5U
11vs Indiana56-14W-40.0W57.5O
12@ Maryland43-30W-27.5L64.5O
13vs Michigan23-45L-7.5L57O
18@ Georgia41-42L+6.5W62O

Betting Profile

ATS Record
6-7
46.2%
O/U Record
9-3-1
75.0%
Straight Up
11-2
84.6%
Home ATS4-4
Away ATS2-3
Favorite ATS5-7
Underdog ATS1-0
Last 5 ATS
LWLLW
Full ATS log & splits →
Graded against consensus market lines (median across multiple sportsbooks). Games the market never lined — mostly early-season non-FBS matchups — are excluded from ATS and O/U records; individual games may grade differently than closing-line sources.

Situational Profile

Situational EPA percentile across 8 phases (the larger the shape, the more dominant). Within-FBS ranks.

Pass Off74thRush Off99thRed Zone Off87th3rd Down Off84thPass Def52thRush Def80thRed Zone Def40th3rd Down Def88th
SituationOFF EPAOFF RankDEF EPADEF Rank
Overall+0.18496th-0.07473th
Red Zone+0.17387th+0.03540th
Third Down+0.30884th-0.13188th
No Garbage Time+0.19497th-0.06166th
First Half+0.18495th-0.03555th
Second Half+0.18497th-0.11485th
Early Downs+0.194100th-0.07676th
Passing Downs+0.10974th-0.02152th
Standard Downs+0.21399th-0.10680th
Goal to Go+0.22780th+0.18419th

Style & Tendencies

Pass 46.8%Rush 53.2%
Havoc/Game
14.3
Havoc Rate
22.7%
TO Margin
+0.6
Explosive/G
14.2
Yards/Game
490.7
Pts/Drive
3.38
3rd Down%
45.2%
3&Out%
16.0%

Team Statistics

2022 season totals across 13 games — Ohio State vs. the combined line of every opponent in those games.
StatOhio StateOpponents
Scoring
Points575273
Points / Game44.221.0
First Downs
Total309195
Rushing11373
Passing171102
Penalty2520
Rushing
Attempts466447
Yards2,5011,574
Yards / Carry5.43.5
Yards / Game192.4121.1
Touchdowns3012
Passing
Attempts410360
Completions274212
Completion %66.8%58.9%
Yards3,8782,606
Yards / Attempt9.57.2
Touchdowns4219
Interceptions611
Passer Rating177.16131.00
Total Offense
Plays876807
Yards6,3794,180
Yards / Play7.35.2
Yards / Game490.7321.5
Punt Returns
Returns179
Yards14164
Average8.37.1
Touchdowns00
Kickoff Returns
Returns1737
Yards325756
Average19.120.4
Touchdowns00
Punting
Punts5078
Yards2,2643,359
Average45.343.1
Interception Returns
Returns116
Yards10955
Touchdowns21
Fumbles
Fumbles915
Lost47
Penalties
Penalties7370
Yards624590
Yards / Game48.045.4
Time of Possession
Per Game30:4529:15
Third Downs
Attempts166187
Conversions7556
Conversion %45.2%29.9%
Fourth Downs
Attempts1723
Conversions129
Conversion %70.6%39.1%
Red Zone
Trips6329
Scores (TD + FG)6027
Score %95.2%93.1%
Touchdowns4718
TD %74.6%62.1%
Field Goals
Attempts2016
Made1713
Pct85.0%81.3%
PAT Kicking
Attempts7531
Made7430
Pct98.7%96.8%
Two-Point Conversions
Attempts02
Made02
Official-stats conventions: rushing includes sacks as negative attempts (NCAA), so Total Offense = rush + pass. Red-zone Score % counts touchdowns and field goals per trip.
Compare to any opponent →Find similar matchups →Team identity →Situational splits →