Fourth Down Data
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ALA

Alabama

Crimson TideBalanced
Southeastern Conference14-1#2 (+17.85)

Grades

Percentile grades against every FBS team this season — 99 is best. Curved so an average team reads C, not F.

98· A+Overall
Offense
98· A+Rating
98· A+Per play
98· A+Consistency
98· A+Big plays
Defense
94· ARating
76· BPer play
96· AConsistency
Situational
57· CRed-zone O
41· CRed-zone D
92· A-3rd down O
44· C3rd down D
How grades work →

Analytical Fingerprint

SS-native team profile — opponent-adjusted and garbage-filtered EPA, success, and explosiveness.

Opp-Adj Offense
+0.280
Opp-Adj Defense
+0.145
higher = better
Offensive EPA/play
+0.242
Defensive EPA/play
-0.090
lower = better
Off Success Rate
54.2%
Def Success Rate
41.5%
allowed · lower = better
Explosive Rate
28.3%
pass EPA > 1.0 · rush > 0.8
Explosive Allowed
21.7%
lower = better
Net EPA/play
+0.333
net · higher = better
Recent EPA Trend
-0.063
last 3 weeks
Points / Drive
3.83

Special Teams

Opponent-adjusted special-teams component of the Final Rating, in expected points per game — positive = better. The four units sum to the net.

Net ST Rating
+1.44
expected pts/game
Kicking
-0.13
own kicking game
Kick Defense
+1.08
vs opponent kicks
Returns
+0.15
own return game
Return Defense
+0.34
vs opponent returns

Performance vs Perception

Our opponent-adjusted model rank vs. how others rate this team. Descriptive — where the model and the consensus disagree.

Model Rank
#2
opponent-adjusted strength
AP Poll
#2
model & AP agree
Market (Vegas)
—
unavailable
Recruiting Rank
#1
recruiting 1 spots higher
70 blue-chip recruits

Peer Context

Where Alabama ranks among all FBS teams in 2018 (percentile).

Opp-adjusted offense
99th
Opp-adjusted defense
94th
Offensive EPA/play
99th
Defensive EPA/play
77th
Offensive success rate
98th
Explosiveness
98th
Defensive havoc
98th
Points per drive
99th

Historical Fingerprint

Most statistically similar team-seasons, 2017–2025, by the same 44-feature profile The Archive uses. Descriptive context, not a forecast.

1Ohio State2022OA +0.221 / +0.040similar: passing offense, offensive success rate, offensive EPA4482Kansas2026OA +0.033 / +0.069similar: defensive success rate, passing offense, havoc rate4213Florida State2022OA +0.148 / +0.042similar: rushing offense, offensive success rate, TD drive rate3874Ohio State2024OA +0.088 / +0.071similar: TD drive rate, havoc rate, passing offense3875LSU2019OA +0.304 / +0.088similar: TD drive rate, offensive EPA, offensive success rate384

2018 Schedule & Results

15 games

WkOpponentScoreW/LSpreadATSTotalO/U
1vs Louisville51-14W-5.5L56.5O
2vs Arkansas State57-7W-36.5W63O
3@ Ole Miss62-7W-22.5W71.5U
4vs Texas A&M45-23W-24.0L58.5O
5vs Louisiana56-14W-49.0L70P
6@ Arkansas65-31W-35.0L58.5O
7vs Missouri39-10W-28.0W72.5U
8@ Tennessee58-21W-29.5W57.5O
10@ LSU29-0W-14.0W51.5U
11vs Mississippi State24-0W-21.5W50U
12vs The Citadel50-17W-54.5L62.5O
13vs Auburn52-21W-26.0W53O
14@ Georgia35-28W-11.0L62O
18vs Oklahoma45-34W----
19vs Clemson16-44L----

Betting Profile

ATS Record
7-6
53.8%
O/U Record
8-4-1
66.7%
Straight Up
12-1
92.3%
Home ATS4-4
Away ATS3-2
Favorite ATS7-6
Underdog ATS0-0
Last 5 ATS
WWLWL
Full ATS log & splits →
Graded against consensus market lines (median across multiple sportsbooks). Games the market never lined — mostly early-season non-FBS matchups — are excluded from ATS and O/U records; individual games may grade differently than closing-line sources.

Situational Profile

Situational EPA percentile across 8 phases (the larger the shape, the more dominant). Within-FBS ranks.

Pass Off98thRush Off95thRed Zone Off58th3rd Down Off93thPass Def28thRush Def91thRed Zone Def42th3rd Down Def44th
SituationOFF EPAOFF RankDEF EPADEF Rank
Overall+0.18799th-0.04163th
Red Zone+0.04558th+0.04342th
Third Down+0.34693th+0.04944th
No Garbage Time+0.25099th-0.09280th
First Half+0.26699th-0.09576th
Second Half+0.09181th+0.01346th
Early Downs+0.18099th-0.08078th
Passing Downs+0.29898th+0.09928th
Standard Downs+0.14295th-0.13791th
Goal to Go-0.04431th+0.22128th

Style & Tendencies

Pass 43.4%Rush 56.6%
Havoc/Game
16.9
Havoc Rate
25.4%
TO Margin
+0.4
Explosive/G
13.7
Yards/Game
522.0
Pts/Drive
3.83
3rd Down%
52.1%
3&Out%
11.9%

Team Statistics

2018 season totals across 15 games — Alabama vs. the combined line of every opponent in those games.
StatAlabamaOpponents
Scoring
Points684271
Points / Game45.618.1
First Downs
Total371253
Rushing15593
Passing195131
Penalty2129
Rushing
Attempts571516
Yards2,9761,819
Yards / Carry5.23.5
Yards / Game198.4121.3
Touchdowns3311
Passing
Attempts438465
Completions301244
Completion %68.7%52.5%
Yards4,8542,974
Yards / Attempt11.16.4
Touchdowns5222
Interceptions814
Passer Rating197.34115.79
Total Offense
Plays1,009981
Yards7,8304,793
Yards / Play7.84.9
Yards / Game522.0319.5
Punt Returns
Returns179
Yards25024
Average14.72.7
Touchdowns10
Kickoff Returns
Returns2241
Yards523825
Average23.820.1
Touchdowns10
Punting
Punts4293
Yards1,5023,896
Average35.841.9
Interception Returns
Returns148
Yards276149
Touchdowns42
Fumbles
Fumbles1614
Lost77
Penalties
Penalties8792
Yards796776
Yards / Game53.151.7
Time of Possession
Per Game30:2029:32
Third Downs
Attempts165222
Conversions8676
Conversion %52.1%34.2%
Fourth Downs
Attempts1524
Conversions711
Conversion %46.7%45.8%
Red Zone
Trips7941
Scores (TD + FG)6530
Score %82.3%73.2%
Touchdowns5424
TD %68.4%58.5%
Field Goals
Attempts2015
Made159
Pct75.0%60.0%
PAT Kicking
Attempts9235
Made8334
Pct90.2%97.1%
Two-Point Conversions
Attempts00
Made00
Official-stats conventions: rushing includes sacks as negative attempts (NCAA), so Total Offense = rush + pass. Red-zone Score % counts touchdowns and field goals per trip.
Compare to any opponent →Find similar matchups →Team identity →Situational splits →