Fourth Down Data
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FSU

Florida State

SeminolesBalanced
Atlantic Coast Conference10-3#15 (+7.27)

Grades

Percentile grades against every FBS team this season — 99 is best. Curved so an average team reads C, not F.

89· BOverall
Offense
92· A-Rating
88· BPer play
90· A-Consistency
92· A-Big plays
Defense
69· CRating
50· CPer play
70· BConsistency
Situational
54· CRed-zone O
56· CRed-zone D
75· B3rd down O
76· B3rd down D
How grades work →

Analytical Fingerprint

SS-native team profile — opponent-adjusted and garbage-filtered EPA, success, and explosiveness.

Opp-Adj Offense
+0.148
Opp-Adj Defense
+0.042
higher = better
Offensive EPA/play
+0.132
Defensive EPA/play
-0.026
lower = better
Off Success Rate
51.7%
Def Success Rate
44.6%
allowed · lower = better
Explosive Rate
27.8%
pass EPA > 1.0 · rush > 0.8
Explosive Allowed
23.6%
lower = better
Net EPA/play
+0.159
net · higher = better
Recent EPA Trend
+0.082
last 3 weeks
Points / Drive
3.11

Special Teams

Opponent-adjusted special-teams component of the Final Rating, in expected points per game — positive = better. The four units sum to the net.

Net ST Rating
-0.17
expected pts/game
Kicking
-0.23
own kicking game
Kick Defense
-0.23
vs opponent kicks
Returns
+0.38
own return game
Return Defense
-0.09
vs opponent returns

Performance vs Perception

Our opponent-adjusted model rank vs. how others rate this team. Descriptive — where the model and the consensus disagree.

Model Rank
#15
opponent-adjusted strength
AP Poll
#11
AP 4 spots higher
Market (Vegas)
#27
model 12 higher
Recruiting Rank
#18
model 3 spots higher
29 blue-chip recruits

Peer Context

Where Florida State ranks among all FBS teams in 2022 (percentile).

Opp-adjusted offense
90th
Opp-adjusted defense
68th
Offensive EPA/play
89th
Defensive EPA/play
51th
Offensive success rate
93th
Explosiveness
93th
Defensive havoc
75th
Points per drive
93th

Historical Fingerprint

Most statistically similar team-seasons, 2017–2025, by the same 44-feature profile The Archive uses. Descriptive context, not a forecast.

1Western Michigan2021OA +0.092 / +0.023similar: offensive EPA, run defense, offensive success rate4392Vanderbilt2025OA +0.271 / -0.004similar: rushing offense, havoc rate, offensive success rate4203Texas State2025OA +0.157 / -0.060similar: TD drive rate, pass defense, defensive success rate3924Alabama2018OA +0.280 / +0.145similar: rushing offense, offensive success rate, TD drive rate3885LSU2019OA +0.304 / +0.088similar: TD drive rate, offensive success rate, offensive EPA385

2022 Schedule & Results

13 games

WkOpponentScoreW/LSpreadATSTotalO/U
0vs Duquesne47-7W----
1@ LSU24-23W+4.0W51U
3@ Louisville35-31W----
4vs Boston College44-14W-17.5W48.5O
5vs Wake Forest21-31L-7.0L64U
6@ NC State17-19L+3.5W50.5U
7vs Clemson28-34L+3.5L51O
9vs Georgia Tech41-16W-24.0W47.5O
10@ Miami45-3W-7.5W52.75U
11@ Syracuse38-3W-6.5W51U
12vs Louisiana49-17W-9.5L58O
13vs Florida45-38W----
18vs Oklahoma35-32W----

Betting Profile

ATS Record
8-4
66.7%
O/U Record
7-5
58.3%
Straight Up
10-3
76.9%
Home ATS3-4
Away ATS5-0
Favorite ATS6-3
Underdog ATS2-1
Last 5 ATS
WWWLL
Full ATS log & splits →
Graded against consensus market lines (median across multiple sportsbooks). Games the market never lined — mostly early-season non-FBS matchups — are excluded from ATS and O/U records; individual games may grade differently than closing-line sources.

Situational Profile

Situational EPA percentile across 8 phases (the larger the shape, the more dominant). Within-FBS ranks.

Pass Off86thRush Off88thRed Zone Off55th3rd Down Off76thPass Def70thRush Def33thRed Zone Def57th3rd Down Def77th
SituationOFF EPAOFF RankDEF EPADEF Rank
Overall+0.12090th-0.01550th
Red Zone+0.03555th-0.07557th
Third Down+0.21576th-0.08677th
No Garbage Time+0.14592th-0.02450th
First Half+0.11483th-0.06166th
Second Half+0.12791th+0.02928th
Early Downs+0.11693th+0.01633th
Passing Downs+0.15786th-0.06570th
Standard Downs+0.10388th+0.01233th
Goal to Go-0.08441th-0.33184th

Style & Tendencies

Pass 43.7%Rush 56.3%
Havoc/Game
14.2
Havoc Rate
20.8%
TO Margin
+0.2
Explosive/G
16.2
Yards/Game
484.2
Pts/Drive
3.11
3rd Down%
51.2%
3&Out%
10.5%

Team Statistics

2022 season totals across 13 games — Florida State vs. the combined line of every opponent in those games.
StatFlorida StateOpponents
Scoring
Points469268
Points / Game36.120.6
First Downs
Total315248
Rushing146117
Passing143107
Penalty2624
Rushing
Attempts509514
Yards2,7832,033
Yards / Carry5.54.0
Yards / Game214.1156.4
Touchdowns3314
Passing
Attempts395349
Completions249197
Completion %63.0%56.4%
Yards3,5122,150
Yards / Attempt8.96.2
Touchdowns2818
Interceptions78
Passer Rating157.57120.63
Total Offense
Plays904863
Yards6,2954,183
Yards / Play7.04.8
Yards / Game484.2321.8
Punt Returns
Returns2212
Yards22772
Average10.36.0
Touchdowns00
Kickoff Returns
Returns1720
Yards336402
Average19.820.1
Touchdowns10
Punting
Punts3467
Yards1,4222,875
Average41.842.9
Interception Returns
Returns87
Yards1075
Touchdowns00
Fumbles
Fumbles1413
Lost78
Penalties
Penalties8796
Yards783800
Yards / Game60.261.5
Time of Possession
Per Game30:6028:47
Third Downs
Attempts168180
Conversions8663
Conversion %51.2%35.0%
Fourth Downs
Attempts2321
Conversions813
Conversion %34.8%61.9%
Red Zone
Trips6641
Scores (TD + FG)5634
Score %84.8%82.9%
Touchdowns4624
TD %69.7%58.5%
Field Goals
Attempts2020
Made1215
Pct60.0%75.0%
PAT Kicking
Attempts5830
Made5729
Pct98.3%96.7%
Two-Point Conversions
Attempts41
Made21
Official-stats conventions: rushing includes sacks as negative attempts (NCAA), so Total Offense = rush + pass. Red-zone Score % counts touchdowns and field goals per trip.
Compare to any opponent →Find similar matchups →Team identity →Situational splits →