Fourth Down Data
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TXST

Texas State

BobcatsRun-Heavy
Pac-12 Conference7-6#68 (-1.12)

Grades

Percentile grades against every FBS team this season — 99 is best. Curved so an average team reads C, not F.

50· COverall
Offense
78· BRating
95· APer play
88· BConsistency
96· ABig plays
Defense
14· FRating
30· DPer play
69· CConsistency
Situational
79· BRed-zone O
26· DRed-zone D
84· B3rd down O
51· C3rd down D
How grades work →

Analytical Fingerprint

SS-native team profile — opponent-adjusted and garbage-filtered EPA, success, and explosiveness.

Opp-Adj Offense
+0.157
Opp-Adj Defense
-0.060
higher = better
Offensive EPA/play
+0.206
Defensive EPA/play
+0.031
lower = better
Off Success Rate
49.9%
Def Success Rate
44.2%
allowed · lower = better
Explosive Rate
28.4%
pass EPA > 1.0 · rush > 0.8
Explosive Allowed
24.6%
lower = better
Net EPA/play
+0.174
net · higher = better
Recent EPA Trend
-0.037
last 3 weeks
Points / Drive
3.15

Special Teams

Opponent-adjusted special-teams component of the Final Rating, in expected points per game — positive = better. The four units sum to the net.

Net ST Rating
-0.94
expected pts/game
Kicking
+0.19
own kicking game
Kick Defense
-1.17
vs opponent kicks
Returns
+0.01
own return game
Return Defense
+0.04
vs opponent returns

Performance vs Perception

Our opponent-adjusted model rank vs. how others rate this team. Descriptive — where the model and the consensus disagree.

Model Rank
#68
opponent-adjusted strength
AP Poll
NR
—
Market (Vegas)
#25
market 43 higher
Recruiting Rank
#79
model 11 spots higher
0 blue-chip recruits

Peer Context

Where Texas State ranks among all FBS teams in 2025 (percentile).

Opp-adjusted offense
94th
Opp-adjusted defense
28th
Offensive EPA/play
96th
Defensive EPA/play
31th
Offensive success rate
83th
Explosiveness
97th
Defensive havoc
51th
Points per drive
94th

Historical Fingerprint

Most statistically similar team-seasons, 2017–2025, by the same 44-feature profile The Archive uses. Descriptive context, not a forecast.

1Oklahoma2017OA +0.313 / -0.052similar: pass defense, takeaway rate, offensive EPA4522North Carolina2020OA +0.097 / -0.025similar: offensive EPA, havoc rate, passing offense4303Miami2024OA +0.103 / -0.014similar: defensive EPA, passing offense, rushing offense4274Louisville2024OA +0.056 / +0.004similar: takeaway rate, passing offense, defensive success rate4165Oklahoma2019OA +0.243 / -0.017similar: rushing offense, offensive EPA, passing offense415

2025 Schedule & Results

13 games

WkOpponentScoreW/LSpreadATSTotalO/U
1vs Eastern Michigan52-27W-14.0W56.5O
2@ UTSA43-36W+3.5W75.5O
3@ Arizona State15-34L+17.5L60.5U
4vs Nicholls State35-3W-32.5L57U
6@ Arkansas State30-31L-7.5L49.5O
7vs Troy41-48L-7.5L54.5O
8@ Marshall37-40L-2.5L48.5O
10vs James Madison20-52L----
11@ Louisiana39-42L-3.5L63O
12@ Southern Miss41-14W-15.0W64.5U
13vs UL Monroe31-14W-20.5L59.5U
14vs South Alabama49-26W-19.5W57.5O
19vs Rice41-10W----

Betting Profile

ATS Record
5-8
38.5%
O/U Record
8-5
61.5%
Straight Up
7-6
53.8%
Home ATS3-4
Away ATS2-4
Favorite ATS4-6
Underdog ATS1-2
Last 5 ATS
LWLWW
Full ATS log & splits →
Graded against consensus market lines (median across multiple sportsbooks). Games the market never lined — mostly early-season non-FBS matchups — are excluded from ATS and O/U records; individual games may grade differently than closing-line sources.

Situational Profile

Situational EPA percentile across 8 phases (the larger the shape, the more dominant). Within-FBS ranks.

Pass Off96thRush Off91thRed Zone Off80th3rd Down Off84thPass Def39thRush Def30thRed Zone Def27th3rd Down Def52th
SituationOFF EPAOFF RankDEF EPADEF Rank
Overall+0.18196th+0.03330th
Red Zone+0.14480th+0.11827th
Third Down+0.28284th+0.07152th
No Garbage Time+0.19297th+0.03230th
First Half+0.13187th+0.00741th
Second Half+0.24399th+0.05826th
Early Downs+0.10093th+0.02627th
Passing Downs+0.29796th+0.01339th
Standard Downs+0.12691th+0.04530th
Goal to Go+0.46897th+0.14134th

Style & Tendencies

Pass 39.2%Rush 60.8%
Havoc/Game
13.1
Havoc Rate
18.2%
TO Margin
-0.3
Explosive/G
16.9
Yards/Game
472.8
Pts/Drive
3.15
3rd Down%
46.6%
3&Out%
13.0%

Team Statistics

2025 season totals across 13 games — Texas State vs. the combined line of every opponent in those games.
StatTexas StateOpponents
Scoring
Points474377
Points / Game36.529.0
First Downs
Total300284
Rushing152121
Passing128130
Penalty2033
Rushing
Attempts559505
Yards2,8872,143
Yards / Carry5.24.2
Yards / Game222.1164.8
Touchdowns3625
Passing
Attempts361402
Completions253266
Completion %70.1%66.2%
Yards3,2602,835
Yards / Attempt9.07.1
Touchdowns2123
Interceptions79
Passer Rating161.26139.81
Total Offense
Plays920907
Yards6,1474,978
Yards / Play6.75.5
Yards / Game472.8382.9
Punt Returns
Returns147
Yards7241
Average5.15.9
Touchdowns00
Kickoff Returns
Returns3422
Yards794438
Average23.419.9
Touchdowns10
Punting
Punts3957
Yards1,5872,500
Average40.743.9
Interception Returns
Returns97
Yards18359
Touchdowns10
Fumbles
Fumbles149
Lost93
Penalties
Penalties9170
Yards798637
Yards / Game61.449.0
Time of Possession
Per Game29:1030:50
Third Downs
Attempts174188
Conversions8177
Conversion %46.6%41.0%
Fourth Downs
Attempts2429
Conversions1414
Conversion %58.3%48.3%
Red Zone
Trips6355
Scores (TD + FG)5848
Score %92.1%87.3%
Touchdowns4137
TD %65.1%67.3%
Field Goals
Attempts2314
Made2114
Pct91.3%100.0%
PAT Kicking
Attempts5442
Made5341
Pct98.1%97.6%
Two-Point Conversions
Attempts65
Made13
Official-stats conventions: rushing includes sacks as negative attempts (NCAA), so Total Offense = rush + pass. Red-zone Score % counts touchdowns and field goals per trip.
Compare to any opponent →Find similar matchups →Team identity →Situational splits →