Fourth Down Data
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UNC

North Carolina

Tar HeelsBalanced
Atlantic Coast Conference8-4#20 (+6.45)

Grades

Percentile grades against every FBS team this season — 99 is best. Curved so an average team reads C, not F.

84· BOverall
Offense
96· ARating
97· A+Per play
90· A-Consistency
96· ABig plays
Defense
49· CRating
25· DPer play
46· CConsistency
Situational
74· BRed-zone O
32· DRed-zone D
71· B3rd down O
23· D3rd down D
How grades work →

Analytical Fingerprint

SS-native team profile — opponent-adjusted and garbage-filtered EPA, success, and explosiveness.

Opp-Adj Offense
+0.097
Opp-Adj Defense
-0.025
higher = better
Offensive EPA/play
+0.273
Defensive EPA/play
+0.082
lower = better
Off Success Rate
51.9%
Def Success Rate
47.4%
allowed · lower = better
Explosive Rate
30.1%
pass EPA > 1.0 · rush > 0.8
Explosive Allowed
24.8%
lower = better
Net EPA/play
+0.191
net · higher = better
Recent EPA Trend
-0.037
last 3 weeks
Points / Drive
3.48

Special Teams

Opponent-adjusted special-teams component of the Final Rating, in expected points per game — positive = better. The four units sum to the net.

Net ST Rating
-1.19
expected pts/game
Kicking
+0.12
own kicking game
Kick Defense
-0.08
vs opponent kicks
Returns
-0.57
own return game
Return Defense
-0.65
vs opponent returns

Performance vs Perception

Our opponent-adjusted model rank vs. how others rate this team. Descriptive — where the model and the consensus disagree.

Model Rank
#20
opponent-adjusted strength
AP Poll
#18
AP 2 spots higher
Market (Vegas)
#23
model 3 higher
Recruiting Rank
#14
recruiting 6 spots higher
22 blue-chip recruits

Peer Context

Where North Carolina ranks among all FBS teams in 2020 (percentile).

Opp-adjusted offense
99th
Opp-adjusted defense
22th
Offensive EPA/play
98th
Defensive EPA/play
25th
Offensive success rate
90th
Explosiveness
97th
Defensive havoc
48th
Points per drive
98th

Historical Fingerprint

Most statistically similar team-seasons, 2017–2025, by the same 44-feature profile The Archive uses. Descriptive context, not a forecast.

1Oklahoma2017OA +0.313 / -0.052similar: defensive EPA, offensive EPA, passing offense5432Texas State2025OA +0.157 / -0.060similar: offensive EPA, havoc rate, passing offense4323LSU2023OA +0.302 / -0.122similar: takeaway rate, run defense, offensive EPA4264Ole Miss2025OA +0.189 / -0.005similar: takeaway rate, turnover rate, passing offense4195Western Michigan2020OA +0.063 / -0.039similar: offensive EPA, TD drive rate, passing offense400

2020 Schedule & Results

12 games

WkOpponentScoreW/LSpreadATSTotalO/U
2vs Syracuse31-6W-22.0W65U
5@ Boston College26-22W-14.5L54U
6vs Virginia Tech56-45W-4.0W59O
7@ Florida State28-31L-13.5L64U
8vs NC State48-21W-15.0W60O
9@ Virginia41-44L-7.0L61.5O
10@ Duke56-24W-11.0W64O
11vs Wake Forest59-53W-13.5L66O
13vs Notre Dame17-31L----
14vs Western Carolina49-9W----
15@ Miami62-26W+3.0W70O
18vs Texas A&M27-41L+7.5L65.5O

Betting Profile

ATS Record
5-6
45.5%
O/U Record
7-4
63.6%
Straight Up
8-4
66.7%
Home ATS3-3
Away ATS2-3
Favorite ATS4-4
Underdog ATS1-2
Last 5 ATS
LLWL
Full ATS log & splits →
Graded against consensus market lines (median across multiple sportsbooks). Games the market never lined — mostly early-season non-FBS matchups — are excluded from ATS and O/U records; individual games may grade differently than closing-line sources.

Situational Profile

Situational EPA percentile across 8 phases (the larger the shape, the more dominant). Within-FBS ranks.

Pass Off95thRush Off98thRed Zone Off75th3rd Down Off72thPass Def23thRush Def24thRed Zone Def33th3rd Down Def23th
SituationOFF EPAOFF RankDEF EPADEF Rank
Overall+0.23298th+0.09920th
Red Zone+0.12475th+0.07033th
Third Down+0.21772th+0.20723th
No Garbage Time+0.27698th+0.09920th
First Half+0.26495th+0.11720th
Second Half+0.19595th+0.07931th
Early Downs+0.19298th+0.1138th
Passing Downs+0.31995th+0.15323th
Standard Downs+0.19698th+0.07024th
Goal to Go+0.14163th+0.22520th

Style & Tendencies

Pass 42.0%Rush 58.0%
Havoc/Game
13.4
Havoc Rate
18.7%
TO Margin
-0.2
Explosive/G
18.6
Yards/Game
537.3
Pts/Drive
3.48
3rd Down%
46.0%
3&Out%
10.0%

Team Statistics

2020 season totals across 12 games — North Carolina vs. the combined line of every opponent in those games.
StatNorth CarolinaOpponents
Scoring
Points500353
Points / Game41.729.4
First Downs
Total317257
Rushing143103
Passing150123
Penalty2431
Rushing
Attempts492434
Yards2,8301,851
Yards / Carry5.84.3
Yards / Game235.8154.3
Touchdowns3525
Passing
Attempts357395
Completions244230
Completion %68.3%58.2%
Yards3,6172,960
Yards / Attempt10.17.5
Touchdowns3117
Interceptions88
Passer Rating177.63131.33
Total Offense
Plays849829
Yards6,4474,811
Yards / Play7.65.8
Yards / Game537.3400.9
Punt Returns
Returns1811
Yards167101
Average9.39.2
Touchdowns00
Kickoff Returns
Returns1111
Yards214236
Average19.521.5
Touchdowns00
Punting
Punts3661
Yards1,5022,705
Average41.744.3
Interception Returns
Returns88
Yards9193
Touchdowns01
Fumbles
Fumbles129
Lost53
Penalties
Penalties8582
Yards814671
Yards / Game67.855.9
Time of Possession
Per Game30:5129:09
Third Downs
Attempts139166
Conversions6463
Conversion %46.0%38.0%
Fourth Downs
Attempts1919
Conversions1110
Conversion %57.9%52.6%
Red Zone
Trips5646
Scores (TD + FG)5040
Score %89.3%87.0%
Touchdowns4129
TD %73.2%63.0%
Field Goals
Attempts1819
Made1215
Pct66.7%78.9%
PAT Kicking
Attempts6438
Made6436
Pct100.0%94.7%
Two-Point Conversions
Attempts26
Made14
Official-stats conventions: rushing includes sacks as negative attempts (NCAA), so Total Offense = rush + pass. Red-zone Score % counts touchdowns and field goals per trip.
Compare to any opponent →Find similar matchups →Team identity →Situational splits →