Fourth Down Data
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OU

Oklahoma

SoonersBalanced
Southeastern Conference12-2#9 (+19.91)

Grades

Percentile grades against every FBS team this season — 99 is best. Curved so an average team reads C, not F.

93· AOverall
Offense
99· A+Rating
98· A+Per play
99· A+Consistency
99· A+Big plays
Defense
61· CRating
24· DPer play
42· CConsistency
Situational
78· BRed-zone O
33· DRed-zone D
86· B3rd down O
32· D3rd down D
How grades work →2017 is the earliest season the model grades — first-year numbers run a touch noisier than later seasons.

Analytical Fingerprint

SS-native team profile — opponent-adjusted and garbage-filtered EPA, success, and explosiveness.

Opp-Adj Offense
+0.313
Opp-Adj Defense
-0.052
higher = better
Offensive EPA/play
+0.310
Defensive EPA/play
+0.071
lower = better
Off Success Rate
54.4%
Def Success Rate
46.1%
allowed · lower = better
Explosive Rate
31.1%
pass EPA > 1.0 · rush > 0.8
Explosive Allowed
24.9%
lower = better
Net EPA/play
+0.238
net · higher = better
Recent EPA Trend
-0.011
last 3 weeks
Points / Drive
3.55

Special Teams

Opponent-adjusted special-teams component of the Final Rating, in expected points per game — positive = better. The four units sum to the net.

Net ST Rating
-0.85
expected pts/game
Kicking
+0.15
own kicking game
Kick Defense
-0.81
vs opponent kicks
Returns
-0.11
own return game
Return Defense
-0.08
vs opponent returns

Performance vs Perception

Our opponent-adjusted model rank vs. how others rate this team. Descriptive — where the model and the consensus disagree.

Model Rank
#9
opponent-adjusted strength
AP Poll
#3
AP 6 spots higher
Market (Vegas)
—
unavailable
Recruiting Rank
#11
model 2 spots higher
43 blue-chip recruits

Peer Context

Where Oklahoma ranks among all FBS teams in 2017 (percentile).

Opp-adjusted offense
100th
Opp-adjusted defense
35th
Offensive EPA/play
99th
Defensive EPA/play
24th
Offensive success rate
100th
Explosiveness
100th
Defensive havoc
31th
Points per drive
100th

Historical Fingerprint

Most statistically similar team-seasons, 2017–2025, by the same 44-feature profile The Archive uses. Descriptive context, not a forecast.

1North Carolina2020OA +0.097 / -0.025similar: defensive EPA, offensive EPA, passing offense5432Texas State2025OA +0.157 / -0.060similar: pass defense, takeaway rate, offensive EPA4523TCU2022OA +0.134 / +0.023similar: turnover rate, run defense, defensive success rate4094UCLA2022OA +0.171 / -0.041similar: offensive success rate, offensive EPA, TD drive rate4095LSU2023OA +0.302 / -0.122similar: offensive success rate, TD drive rate, offensive EPA393

2017 Schedule & Results

14 games

WkOpponentScoreW/LSpreadATSTotalO/U
1vs UTEP56-7W+2.5L62.5O
2@ Ohio State31-16W+7.5W64.5U
3vs Tulane56-14W-33.0W52O
4@ Baylor49-41W-27.5L60.5O
6vs Iowa State31-38L-31.0L61.5O
7@ Texas29-24W-9.0L61.5U
8@ Kansas State42-35W-14.5L55O
9vs Texas Tech49-27W-19.5W77.5U
10@ Oklahoma State62-52W+1.0W76.5O
11vs TCU38-20W-6.0W63.5U
12@ Kansas41-3W-40.0L68U
13vs West Virginia59-31W-23.0W69O
14vs TCU41-17W-7.0W63.5U
18vs Georgia48-54L----

Betting Profile

ATS Record
7-6
53.8%
O/U Record
7-6
53.8%
Straight Up
11-2
84.6%
Home ATS5-2
Away ATS2-4
Favorite ATS5-5
Underdog ATS2-1
Last 5 ATS
WWLWW
Full ATS log & splits →
Graded against consensus market lines (median across multiple sportsbooks). Games the market never lined — mostly early-season non-FBS matchups — are excluded from ATS and O/U records; individual games may grade differently than closing-line sources.

Situational Profile

Situational EPA percentile across 8 phases (the larger the shape, the more dominant). Within-FBS ranks.

Pass Off98thRush Off100thRed Zone Off79th3rd Down Off87thPass Def31thRush Def18thRed Zone Def34th3rd Down Def32th
SituationOFF EPAOFF RankDEF EPADEF Rank
Overall+0.27299th+0.06225th
Red Zone+0.13779th+0.07634th
Third Down+0.22387th+0.07632th
No Garbage Time+0.30899th+0.06523th
First Half+0.36099th+0.12414th
Second Half+0.18198th-0.00145th
Early Downs+0.26599th+0.04921th
Passing Downs+0.36598th+0.06331th
Standard Downs+0.235100th+0.06218th
Goal to Go-0.11432th+0.03044th

Style & Tendencies

Pass 44.2%Rush 55.8%
Havoc/Game
11.4
Havoc Rate
16.4%
TO Margin
+0.4
Explosive/G
18.5
Yards/Game
579.6
Pts/Drive
3.55
3rd Down%
42.6%
3&Out%
14.9%

Team Statistics

2017 season totals across 14 games — Oklahoma vs. the combined line of every opponent in those games.
StatOklahomaOpponents
Scoring
Points632379
Points / Game45.127.1
First Downs
Total361286
Rushing140118
Passing202133
Penalty1935
Rushing
Attempts546500
Yards3,0492,191
Yards / Carry5.64.4
Yards / Game217.8156.5
Touchdowns3324
Passing
Attempts433447
Completions309267
Completion %71.4%59.7%
Yards5,0653,338
Yards / Attempt11.77.5
Touchdowns4723
Interceptions68
Passer Rating202.67135.86
Total Offense
Plays979947
Yards8,1145,529
Yards / Play8.35.8
Yards / Game579.6394.9
Punt Returns
Returns178
Yards95131
Average5.616.4
Touchdowns00
Kickoff Returns
Returns3921
Yards751485
Average19.323.1
Touchdowns00
Punting
Punts4374
Yards1,8203,159
Average42.342.7
Interception Returns
Returns86
Yards14581
Touchdowns10
Fumbles
Fumbles1317
Lost710
Penalties
Penalties8274
Yards808632
Yards / Game57.745.1
Time of Possession
Per Game31:5028:11
Third Downs
Attempts162192
Conversions6973
Conversion %42.6%38.0%
Fourth Downs
Attempts2322
Conversions1213
Conversion %52.2%59.1%
Red Zone
Trips7249
Scores (TD + FG)6543
Score %90.3%87.8%
Touchdowns5130
TD %70.8%61.2%
Field Goals
Attempts2122
Made1717
Pct81.0%77.3%
PAT Kicking
Attempts8143
Made8142
Pct100.0%97.7%
Two-Point Conversions
Attempts23
Made12
Official-stats conventions: rushing includes sacks as negative attempts (NCAA), so Total Offense = rush + pass. Red-zone Score % counts touchdowns and field goals per trip.
Compare to any opponent →Find similar matchups →Team identity →Situational splits →