Fourth Down Data
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TCU

TCU

Horned FrogsBalanced
Big 12 Conference13-2#10 (+8.96)

Grades

Percentile grades against every FBS team this season — 99 is best. Curved so an average team reads C, not F.

92· A-Overall
Offense
89· BRating
87· BPer play
73· BConsistency
77· BBig plays
Defense
71· BRating
34· DPer play
56· CConsistency
Situational
81· BRed-zone O
43· CRed-zone D
57· C3rd down O
33· D3rd down D
How grades work →

Analytical Fingerprint

SS-native team profile — opponent-adjusted and garbage-filtered EPA, success, and explosiveness.

Opp-Adj Offense
+0.134
Opp-Adj Defense
+0.023
higher = better
Offensive EPA/play
+0.123
Defensive EPA/play
+0.020
lower = better
Off Success Rate
49.1%
Def Success Rate
45.4%
allowed · lower = better
Explosive Rate
25.8%
pass EPA > 1.0 · rush > 0.8
Explosive Allowed
24.6%
lower = better
Net EPA/play
+0.103
net · higher = better
Recent EPA Trend
-0.234
last 3 weeks
Points / Drive
2.88

Special Teams

Opponent-adjusted special-teams component of the Final Rating, in expected points per game — positive = better. The four units sum to the net.

Net ST Rating
+1.99
expected pts/game
Kicking
+0.34
own kicking game
Kick Defense
+0.43
vs opponent kicks
Returns
+0.94
own return game
Return Defense
+0.29
vs opponent returns

Performance vs Perception

Our opponent-adjusted model rank vs. how others rate this team. Descriptive — where the model and the consensus disagree.

Model Rank
#10
opponent-adjusted strength
AP Poll
#2
AP 8 spots higher
Market (Vegas)
#63
model 53 higher
Recruiting Rank
#29
model 19 spots higher
17 blue-chip recruits

Peer Context

Where TCU ranks among all FBS teams in 2022 (percentile).

Opp-adjusted offense
90th
Opp-adjusted defense
61th
Offensive EPA/play
88th
Defensive EPA/play
35th
Offensive success rate
75th
Explosiveness
78th
Defensive havoc
58th
Points per drive
90th

Historical Fingerprint

Most statistically similar team-seasons, 2017–2025, by the same 44-feature profile The Archive uses. Descriptive context, not a forecast.

1Baylor2024OA +0.032 / -0.011similar: defensive EPA, TD drive rate, passing offense4302Louisville2024OA +0.056 / +0.004similar: passing offense, offensive success rate, rushing offense4183Ole Miss2025OA +0.189 / -0.005similar: TD drive rate, passing offense, offensive EPA4164Oklahoma2022OA +0.102 / +0.001similar: run defense, rushing offense, pass defense4165Oklahoma2017OA +0.313 / -0.052similar: turnover rate, run defense, defensive success rate409

2022 Schedule & Results

15 games

WkOpponentScoreW/LSpreadATSTotalO/U
1@ Colorado38-13W----
2vs Tarleton State59-17W----
4@ SMU42-34W-2.0W70.5O
5vs Oklahoma55-24W+6.5W69O
6@ Kansas38-31W-5.3W67.5O
7vs Oklahoma State43-40W-4.0L68.5O
8vs Kansas State38-28W-3.5W54O
9@ West Virginia41-31W-7.5W68.5O
10vs Texas Tech34-24W-9.5W69.5U
11@ Texas17-10W+7.0W65U
12@ Baylor29-28W-2.5L57.5U
13vs Iowa State62-14W-10.0W47.5O
14vs Kansas State28-31L-2.5L62U
18@ Michigan51-45W+7.5W58.5O
19@ Georgia7-65L+13.5L62.5O

Betting Profile

ATS Record
10-4
71.4%
O/U Record
9-5
64.3%
Straight Up
13-2
86.7%
Home ATS4-2
Away ATS6-2
Favorite ATS7-3
Underdog ATS3-1
Last 5 ATS
LWLWL
Full ATS log & splits →
Graded against consensus market lines (median across multiple sportsbooks). Games the market never lined — mostly early-season non-FBS matchups — are excluded from ATS and O/U records; individual games may grade differently than closing-line sources.

Situational Profile

Situational EPA percentile across 8 phases (the larger the shape, the more dominant). Within-FBS ranks.

Pass Off61thRush Off95thRed Zone Off81th3rd Down Off58thPass Def69thRush Def13thRed Zone Def44th3rd Down Def33th
SituationOFF EPAOFF RankDEF EPADEF Rank
Overall+0.11489th+0.03227th
Red Zone+0.13181th+0.01544th
Third Down+0.11058th+0.12333th
No Garbage Time+0.12588th+0.02335th
First Half+0.10181th+0.02633th
Second Half+0.12792th+0.03826th
Early Downs+0.11793th+0.1057th
Passing Downs+0.05461th-0.05869th
Standard Downs+0.14695th+0.08113th
Goal to Go+0.42296th-0.41492th

Style & Tendencies

Pass 44.5%Rush 55.5%
Havoc/Game
14.1
Havoc Rate
19.2%
TO Margin
+0.4
Explosive/G
15.5
Yards/Game
455.0
Pts/Drive
2.88
3rd Down%
39.8%
3&Out%
18.0%

Team Statistics

2022 season totals across 15 games — TCU vs. the combined line of every opponent in those games.
StatTCUOpponents
Scoring
Points582435
Points / Game38.829.0
First Downs
Total317318
Rushing141132
Passing154162
Penalty2224
Rushing
Attempts566558
Yards2,8992,383
Yards / Carry5.14.3
Yards / Game193.3158.9
Touchdowns3729
Passing
Attempts454514
Completions292284
Completion %64.3%55.3%
Yards3,9263,740
Yards / Attempt8.67.3
Touchdowns3325
Interceptions816
Passer Rating157.42126.20
Total Offense
Plays1,0201,072
Yards6,8256,123
Yards / Play6.75.7
Yards / Game455.0408.2
Punt Returns
Returns257
Yards30145
Average12.06.4
Touchdowns20
Kickoff Returns
Returns4748
Yards9071,093
Average19.322.8
Touchdowns00
Punting
Punts6370
Yards2,5123,077
Average39.944.0
Interception Returns
Returns168
Yards28211
Touchdowns40
Fumbles
Fumbles1218
Lost86
Penalties
Penalties7278
Yards744640
Yards / Game49.642.7
Time of Possession
Per Game30:2829:32
Third Downs
Attempts201219
Conversions8080
Conversion %39.8%36.5%
Fourth Downs
Attempts2741
Conversions1420
Conversion %51.9%48.8%
Red Zone
Trips6158
Scores (TD + FG)5149
Score %83.6%84.5%
Touchdowns4237
TD %68.9%63.8%
Field Goals
Attempts2123
Made1817
Pct85.7%73.9%
PAT Kicking
Attempts7151
Made6850
Pct95.8%98.0%
Two-Point Conversions
Attempts44
Made22
Official-stats conventions: rushing includes sacks as negative attempts (NCAA), so Total Offense = rush + pass. Red-zone Score % counts touchdowns and field goals per trip.
Compare to any opponent →Find similar matchups →Team identity →Situational splits →