← All Teams
LOU
Louisville
CardinalsBalancedAtlantic Coast Conference9-4#18 (+7.16)
Grades
Percentile grades against every FBS team this season — 99 is best. Curved so an average team reads C, not F.
86· BOverall
Offense
93· ARating
89· BPer play
84· BConsistency
95· ABig plays
Defense
63· CRating
47· CPer play
63· CConsistency
Situational
56· CRed-zone O
40· CRed-zone D
81· B3rd down O
90· A-3rd down D
Analytical Fingerprint
SS-native team profile — opponent-adjusted and garbage-filtered EPA, success, and explosiveness.
Opp-Adj Offense
+0.056
Opp-Adj Defense
+0.004
higher = better
Offensive EPA/play
+0.129
Defensive EPA/play
-0.001
lower = better
Off Success Rate
48.4%
Def Success Rate
44.2%
allowed · lower = better
Explosive Rate
27.5%
pass EPA > 1.0 · rush > 0.8
Explosive Allowed
25.4%
lower = better
Net EPA/play
+0.131
net · higher = better
Recent EPA Trend
-0.050
last 3 weeks
Points / Drive
2.86
Special Teams
Opponent-adjusted special-teams component of the Final Rating, in expected points per game — positive = better. The four units sum to the net.
Net ST Rating
+1.15
expected pts/game
Kicking
+0.05
own kicking game
Kick Defense
+1.02
vs opponent kicks
Returns
-0.03
own return game
Return Defense
+0.10
vs opponent returns
Performance vs Perception
Our opponent-adjusted model rank vs. how others rate this team. Descriptive — where the model and the consensus disagree.
Model Rank
#18
opponent-adjusted strength
AP Poll
NR
model 8 spots higher
Market (Vegas)
#26
model 8 higher
Recruiting Rank
#33
model 15 spots higher
14 blue-chip recruits
Peer Context
Where Louisville ranks among all FBS teams in 2024 (percentile).
Opp-adjusted offense93th
Opp-adjusted defense56th
Offensive EPA/play90th
Defensive EPA/play48th
Offensive success rate74th
Explosiveness96th
Defensive havoc70th
Points per drive91th
Historical Fingerprint
Most statistically similar team-seasons, 2017–2025, by the same 44-feature profile The Archive uses. Descriptive context, not a forecast.
1TCU2022OA +0.134 / +0.023similar: passing offense, offensive success rate, rushing offense4182Texas State2025OA +0.157 / -0.060similar: takeaway rate, passing offense, defensive success rate4163Oklahoma State2017OA +0.215 / +0.003similar: havoc rate, rushing offense, defensive EPA4134Texas2022OA +0.125 / +0.064similar: defensive EPA, turnover rate, offensive success rate3855Indiana2019OA +0.128 / -0.036similar: defensive EPA, run defense, pass defense379
2024 Schedule & Results
13 games
| Wk | Opponent | Score | W/L | Spread | ATS | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | vs Austin Peay | 62-0 | W | -36.5 | W | 53 | O |
| 2 | vs Jacksonville State | 49-14 | W | -26.5 | W | 58.5 | O |
| 4 | vs Georgia Tech | 31-19 | W | -10.5 | W | 58.5 | U |
| 5 | @ Notre Dame | 24-31 | L | +6.5 | L | 46 | O |
| 6 | vs SMU | 27-34 | L | -6.5 | L | 56.5 | O |
| 7 | @ Virginia | 24-20 | W | -7.5 | L | 54.5 | U |
| 8 | vs Miami | 45-52 | L | +5.0 | L | 61 | O |
| 9 | @ Boston College | 31-27 | W | - | - | - | - |
| 10 | @ Clemson | 33-21 | W | +10.5 | W | 61 | U |
| 12 | @ Stanford | 35-38 | L | -20.0 | L | 57.5 | O |
| 13 | vs Pittsburgh | 37-9 | W | -8.0 | W | 57 | U |
| 14 | @ Kentucky | 41-14 | W | -4.0 | W | 48.5 | O |
| 19 | @ Washington | 35-34 | W | - | - | - | - |
Betting Profile
ATS Record
6-7
46.2%
O/U Record
9-4
69.2%
Straight Up
9-4
69.2%
Home ATS4-2
Away ATS2-5
Favorite ATS5-5
Underdog ATS1-2
Last 5 ATS
WLWWL
Graded against consensus market lines (median across multiple sportsbooks). Games the market never lined — mostly early-season non-FBS matchups — are excluded from ATS and O/U records; individual games may grade differently than closing-line sources.
Situational Profile
Situational EPA percentile across 8 phases (the larger the shape, the more dominant). Within-FBS ranks.
| Situation | OFF EPA | OFF Rank | DEF EPA | DEF Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Overall | +0.109 | 87th | -0.012 | 55th |
| Red Zone | +0.037 | 57th | +0.045 | 40th |
| Third Down | +0.272 | 81th | -0.168 | 91th |
| No Garbage Time | +0.121 | 87th | -0.003 | 49th |
| First Half | +0.100 | 80th | -0.059 | 65th |
| Second Half | +0.118 | 87th | +0.034 | 36th |
| Early Downs | +0.082 | 87th | -0.023 | 48th |
| Passing Downs | +0.171 | 86th | -0.062 | 66th |
| Standard Downs | +0.078 | 79th | +0.014 | 45th |
| Goal to Go | +0.218 | 80th | -0.043 | 55th |
Style & Tendencies
Pass 50.1%Rush 49.9%
Havoc/Game
14.3
Havoc Rate
20.6%
TO Margin
+0.5
Explosive/G
16.2
Yards/Game
449.2
Pts/Drive
2.86
3rd Down%
40.0%
3&Out%
14.0%
Team Statistics
2024 season totals across 13 games — Louisville vs. the combined line of every opponent in those games.
| Stat | Louisville | Opponents |
|---|---|---|
| Scoring | ||
| Points | 474 | 313 |
| Points / Game | 36.5 | 24.1 |
| First Downs | ||
| Total | 276 | 250 |
| Rushing | 110 | 105 |
| Passing | 146 | 125 |
| Penalty | 20 | 20 |
| Rushing | ||
| Attempts | 426 | 464 |
| Yards | 2,407 | 1,723 |
| Yards / Carry | 5.7 | 3.7 |
| Yards / Game | 185.2 | 132.5 |
| Touchdowns | 28 | 15 |
| Passing | ||
| Attempts | 427 | 422 |
| Completions | 271 | 263 |
| Completion % | 63.5% | 62.3% |
| Yards | 3,433 | 3,070 |
| Yards / Attempt | 8.0 | 7.3 |
| Touchdowns | 26 | 24 |
| Interceptions | 6 | 10 |
| Passer Rating | 148.28 | 137.46 |
| Total Offense | ||
| Plays | 853 | 886 |
| Yards | 5,840 | 4,793 |
| Yards / Play | 6.8 | 5.4 |
| Yards / Game | 449.2 | 368.7 |
| Punt Returns | ||
| Returns | 34 | 11 |
| Yards | 191 | 58 |
| Average | 5.6 | 5.3 |
| Touchdowns | 0 | 0 |
| Kickoff Returns | ||
| Returns | 32 | 27 |
| Yards | 648 | 479 |
| Average | 20.3 | 17.7 |
| Touchdowns | 1 | 0 |
| Punting | ||
| Punts | 41 | 65 |
| Yards | 1,653 | 2,574 |
| Average | 40.3 | 39.6 |
| Interception Returns | ||
| Returns | 10 | 6 |
| Yards | 62 | 56 |
| Touchdowns | 1 | 0 |
| Fumbles | ||
| Fumbles | 8 | 11 |
| Lost | 5 | 7 |
| Penalties | ||
| Penalties | 81 | 61 |
| Yards | 642 | 576 |
| Yards / Game | 49.4 | 44.3 |
| Time of Possession | ||
| Per Game | 29:50 | 30:08 |
| Third Downs | ||
| Attempts | 155 | 187 |
| Conversions | 62 | 67 |
| Conversion % | 40.0% | 35.8% |
| Fourth Downs | ||
| Attempts | 22 | 32 |
| Conversions | 9 | 21 |
| Conversion % | 40.9% | 65.6% |
| Red Zone | ||
| Trips | 55 | 35 |
| Scores (TD + FG) | 45 | 29 |
| Score % | 81.8% | 82.9% |
| Touchdowns | 35 | 24 |
| TD % | 63.6% | 68.6% |
| Field Goals | ||
| Attempts | 25 | 16 |
| Made | 18 | 10 |
| Pct | 72.0% | 62.5% |
| PAT Kicking | ||
| Attempts | 60 | 38 |
| Made | 60 | 37 |
| Pct | 100.0% | 97.4% |
| Two-Point Conversions | ||
| Attempts | 0 | 2 |
| Made | 0 | 1 |
Official-stats conventions: rushing includes sacks as negative attempts (NCAA), so Total Offense = rush + pass. Red-zone Score % counts touchdowns and field goals per trip.