Fourth Down Data
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OKST

Oklahoma State

CowboysBalanced
Big 12 Conference10-3#10 (+18.46)

Grades

Percentile grades against every FBS team this season — 99 is best. Curved so an average team reads C, not F.

92· A-Overall
Offense
98· A+Rating
95· APer play
89· BConsistency
98· A+Big plays
Defense
63· CRating
45· CPer play
54· CConsistency
Situational
60· CRed-zone O
89· BRed-zone D
96· A3rd down O
37· D3rd down D
How grades work →2017 is the earliest season the model grades — first-year numbers run a touch noisier than later seasons.

Analytical Fingerprint

SS-native team profile — opponent-adjusted and garbage-filtered EPA, success, and explosiveness.

Opp-Adj Offense
+0.215
Opp-Adj Defense
+0.003
higher = better
Offensive EPA/play
+0.198
Defensive EPA/play
+0.002
lower = better
Off Success Rate
50.1%
Def Success Rate
45.1%
allowed · lower = better
Explosive Rate
28.9%
pass EPA > 1.0 · rush > 0.8
Explosive Allowed
24.9%
lower = better
Net EPA/play
+0.196
net · higher = better
Recent EPA Trend
-0.073
last 3 weeks
Points / Drive
3.27

Special Teams

Opponent-adjusted special-teams component of the Final Rating, in expected points per game — positive = better. The four units sum to the net.

Net ST Rating
-0.95
expected pts/game
Kicking
+0.35
own kicking game
Kick Defense
-1.06
vs opponent kicks
Returns
-0.17
own return game
Return Defense
-0.07
vs opponent returns

Performance vs Perception

Our opponent-adjusted model rank vs. how others rate this team. Descriptive — where the model and the consensus disagree.

Model Rank
#10
opponent-adjusted strength
AP Poll
#14
model 4 spots higher
Market (Vegas)
—
unavailable
Recruiting Rank
#33
model 23 spots higher
10 blue-chip recruits

Peer Context

Where Oklahoma State ranks among all FBS teams in 2017 (percentile).

Opp-adjusted offense
99th
Opp-adjusted defense
53th
Offensive EPA/play
96th
Defensive EPA/play
45th
Offensive success rate
87th
Explosiveness
98th
Defensive havoc
70th
Points per drive
97th

Historical Fingerprint

Most statistically similar team-seasons, 2017–2025, by the same 44-feature profile The Archive uses. Descriptive context, not a forecast.

1UTSA2022OA +0.068 / -0.038similar: takeaway rate, offensive success rate, turnover rate4332Florida2020OA +0.063 / -0.013similar: passing offense, rushing offense, offensive EPA4323Louisville2024OA +0.056 / +0.004similar: havoc rate, rushing offense, defensive EPA4134Texas State2025OA +0.157 / -0.060similar: offensive EPA, pass defense, offensive success rate4105SMU2020OA +0.035 / -0.008similar: pass defense, run defense, turnover rate409

2017 Schedule & Results

13 games

WkOpponentScoreW/LSpreadATSTotalO/U
1vs Tulsa59-24W-5.5W61.5U
2@ South Alabama44-7W-28.0W68U
3@ Pittsburgh59-21W-10.5W65.5O
4vs TCU31-44L-9.5L67O
5@ Texas Tech41-34W-10.5L85U
7vs Baylor59-16W-26.0W67.5O
8@ Texas13-10W-7.0L64.5U
9@ West Virginia50-39W-8.5W78O
10vs Oklahoma52-62L-1.0L76.5O
11@ Iowa State49-42W-7.5L60.5O
12vs Kansas State40-45L-19.5L63O
13vs Kansas58-17W-40.5W67O
18vs Virginia Tech30-21W----

Betting Profile

ATS Record
6-6
50.0%
O/U Record
8-4
66.7%
Straight Up
9-3
75.0%
Home ATS3-3
Away ATS3-3
Favorite ATS6-6
Underdog ATS0-0
Last 5 ATS
WLLLW
Full ATS log & splits →
Graded against consensus market lines (median across multiple sportsbooks). Games the market never lined — mostly early-season non-FBS matchups — are excluded from ATS and O/U records; individual games may grade differently than closing-line sources.

Situational Profile

Situational EPA percentile across 8 phases (the larger the shape, the more dominant). Within-FBS ranks.

Pass Off98thRush Off90thRed Zone Off61th3rd Down Off97thPass Def52thRush Def30thRed Zone Def89th3rd Down Def38th
SituationOFF EPAOFF RankDEF EPADEF Rank
Overall+0.17695th+0.00244th
Red Zone+0.04561th-0.22789th
Third Down+0.34797th+0.04138th
No Garbage Time+0.20196th+0.03736th
First Half+0.25598th+0.04134th
Second Half+0.09383th-0.03856th
Early Downs+0.07486th+0.00134th
Passing Downs+0.30398th-0.03152th
Standard Downs+0.11290th+0.02230th
Goal to Go+0.01256th-0.34090th

Style & Tendencies

Pass 49.9%Rush 50.1%
Havoc/Game
15.5
Havoc Rate
20.3%
TO Margin
+0.2
Explosive/G
19.0
Yards/Game
568.9
Pts/Drive
3.27
3rd Down%
45.6%
3&Out%
12.4%

Team Statistics

2017 season totals across 13 games — Oklahoma State vs. the combined line of every opponent in those games.
StatOklahoma StateOpponents
Scoring
Points585382
Points / Game45.029.4
First Downs
Total359286
Rushing118112
Passing213144
Penalty2830
Rushing
Attempts505506
Yards2,3371,829
Yards / Carry4.63.6
Yards / Game179.8140.7
Touchdowns3423
Passing
Attempts503460
Completions325265
Completion %64.6%57.6%
Yards5,0593,492
Yards / Attempt10.17.6
Touchdowns3719
Interceptions1017
Passer Rating169.39127.61
Total Offense
Plays1,008966
Yards7,3965,321
Yards / Play7.35.5
Yards / Game568.9409.3
Punt Returns
Returns1713
Yards8389
Average4.96.8
Touchdowns01
Kickoff Returns
Returns2966
Yards5331,278
Average18.419.4
Touchdowns01
Punting
Punts4179
Yards1,7313,377
Average42.242.7
Interception Returns
Returns1710
Yards244151
Touchdowns22
Fumbles
Fumbles1817
Lost117
Penalties
Penalties6676
Yards592623
Yards / Game45.547.9
Time of Possession
Per Game28:0731:53
Third Downs
Attempts180206
Conversions8280
Conversion %45.6%38.8%
Fourth Downs
Attempts2017
Conversions139
Conversion %65.0%52.9%
Red Zone
Trips7548
Scores (TD + FG)6739
Score %89.3%81.3%
Touchdowns4926
TD %65.3%54.2%
Field Goals
Attempts2917
Made2315
Pct79.3%88.2%
PAT Kicking
Attempts7147
Made7047
Pct98.6%100.0%
Two-Point Conversions
Attempts31
Made11
Official-stats conventions: rushing includes sacks as negative attempts (NCAA), so Total Offense = rush + pass. Red-zone Score % counts touchdowns and field goals per trip.
Compare to any opponent →Find similar matchups →Team identity →Situational splits →