Fourth Down Data
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MISS

Ole Miss

RebelsBalanced
Southeastern Conference13-2#10 (+20.45)

Grades

Percentile grades against every FBS team this season — 99 is best. Curved so an average team reads C, not F.

92· A-Overall
Offense
95· ARating
89· BPer play
80· BConsistency
54· CBig plays
Defense
76· BRating
31· DPer play
52· CConsistency
Situational
58· CRed-zone O
41· CRed-zone D
73· B3rd down O
43· C3rd down D
How grades work →

Analytical Fingerprint

SS-native team profile — opponent-adjusted and garbage-filtered EPA, success, and explosiveness.

Opp-Adj Offense
+0.189
Opp-Adj Defense
-0.005
higher = better
Offensive EPA/play
+0.134
Defensive EPA/play
+0.029
lower = better
Off Success Rate
50.0%
Def Success Rate
44.5%
allowed · lower = better
Explosive Rate
22.9%
pass EPA > 1.0 · rush > 0.8
Explosive Allowed
23.4%
lower = better
Net EPA/play
+0.106
net · higher = better
Recent EPA Trend
-0.082
last 3 weeks
Points / Drive
3.11

Special Teams

Opponent-adjusted special-teams component of the Final Rating, in expected points per game — positive = better. The four units sum to the net.

Net ST Rating
+1.07
expected pts/game
Kicking
+1.52
own kicking game
Kick Defense
-0.50
vs opponent kicks
Returns
-0.08
own return game
Return Defense
+0.13
vs opponent returns

Performance vs Perception

Our opponent-adjusted model rank vs. how others rate this team. Descriptive — where the model and the consensus disagree.

Model Rank
#10
opponent-adjusted strength
AP Poll
#3
AP 7 spots higher
Market (Vegas)
#19
model 9 higher
Recruiting Rank
#21
model 11 spots higher
31 blue-chip recruits

Peer Context

Where Ole Miss ranks among all FBS teams in 2025 (percentile).

Opp-adjusted offense
96th
Opp-adjusted defense
49th
Offensive EPA/play
90th
Defensive EPA/play
31th
Offensive success rate
84th
Explosiveness
55th
Defensive havoc
66th
Points per drive
93th

Historical Fingerprint

Most statistically similar team-seasons, 2017–2025, by the same 44-feature profile The Archive uses. Descriptive context, not a forecast.

1North Carolina2020OA +0.097 / -0.025similar: takeaway rate, turnover rate, passing offense4192Memphis2019OA +0.169 / -0.025similar: offensive success rate, offensive EPA, pass defense4173TCU2022OA +0.134 / +0.023similar: TD drive rate, passing offense, offensive EPA4164Texas State2025OA +0.157 / -0.060similar: defensive EPA, passing offense, offensive success rate3945UTSA2022OA +0.068 / -0.038similar: TD drive rate, defensive EPA, offensive success rate379

2025 Schedule & Results

15 games

WkOpponentScoreW/LSpreadATSTotalO/U
1vs Georgia State63-7W-32.8W60.5O
2@ Kentucky30-23W-9.0L54.5U
3vs Arkansas41-35W-3.5W60.5O
4vs Tulane45-10W-22.0W42.25O
5vs LSU24-19W-7.5L51.5U
7vs Washington State24-21W-32.0L58.5U
8@ Georgia35-43L-2.0L79.5U
9@ Oklahoma34-26W+5.5W52.5O
10vs South Carolina30-14W-12.5W55.5U
11vs The Citadel49-0W----
12vs Florida34-24W-11.5L53.5O
14@ Mississippi State38-19W----
17vs Tulane41-10W-20.5W45.5O
19@ Georgia39-34W+3.0L53O
20vs Miami27-31L----

Betting Profile

ATS Record
8-6
57.1%
O/U Record
8-6
57.1%
Straight Up
13-2
86.7%
Home ATS5-4
Away ATS3-2
Favorite ATS6-5
Underdog ATS2-1
Last 5 ATS
LWWWL
Full ATS log & splits →
Graded against consensus market lines (median across multiple sportsbooks). Games the market never lined — mostly early-season non-FBS matchups — are excluded from ATS and O/U records; individual games may grade differently than closing-line sources.

Situational Profile

Situational EPA percentile across 8 phases (the larger the shape, the more dominant). Within-FBS ranks.

Pass Off93thRush Off81thRed Zone Off59th3rd Down Off73thPass Def48thRush Def44thRed Zone Def41th3rd Down Def44th
SituationOFF EPAOFF RankDEF EPADEF Rank
Overall+0.12890th+0.00244th
Red Zone+0.03459th+0.03441th
Third Down+0.20373th+0.09944th
No Garbage Time+0.13591th+0.02533th
First Half+0.15593th+0.05824th
Second Half+0.09483th-0.04866th
Early Downs+0.07384th+0.04221th
Passing Downs+0.22393th-0.00948th
Standard Downs+0.08981th+0.00844th
Goal to Go-0.04347th+0.27113th

Style & Tendencies

Pass 47.6%Rush 52.4%
Havoc/Game
13.1
Havoc Rate
19.3%
TO Margin
+0.1
Explosive/G
15.2
Yards/Game
489.7
Pts/Drive
3.11
3rd Down%
43.1%
3&Out%
14.8%

Team Statistics

2025 season totals across 15 games — Ole Miss vs. the combined line of every opponent in those games.
StatOle MissOpponents
Scoring
Points554316
Points / Game36.921.1
First Downs
Total383287
Rushing149128
Passing199127
Penalty3532
Rushing
Attempts576539
Yards2,6452,236
Yards / Carry4.64.1
Yards / Game176.3149.1
Touchdowns3920
Passing
Attempts523458
Completions340260
Completion %65.0%56.8%
Yards4,7002,984
Yards / Attempt9.06.5
Touchdowns2617
Interceptions89
Passer Rating153.84119.82
Total Offense
Plays1,099997
Yards7,3455,220
Yards / Play6.75.2
Yards / Game489.7348.0
Punt Returns
Returns1614
Yards11977
Average7.45.5
Touchdowns00
Kickoff Returns
Returns910
Yards188178
Average20.917.8
Touchdowns00
Punting
Punts4165
Yards1,8852,940
Average46.045.2
Interception Returns
Returns98
Yards28139
Touchdowns00
Fumbles
Fumbles1418
Lost66
Penalties
Penalties8388
Yards786769
Yards / Game52.451.3
Time of Possession
Per Game28:4431:14
Third Downs
Attempts195207
Conversions8477
Conversion %43.1%37.2%
Fourth Downs
Attempts3134
Conversions2113
Conversion %67.7%38.2%
Red Zone
Trips7742
Scores (TD + FG)6635
Score %85.7%83.3%
Touchdowns4923
TD %63.6%54.8%
Field Goals
Attempts3526
Made3118
Pct88.6%69.2%
PAT Kicking
Attempts5934
Made5934
Pct100.0%100.0%
Two-Point Conversions
Attempts64
Made40
Official-stats conventions: rushing includes sacks as negative attempts (NCAA), so Total Offense = rush + pass. Red-zone Score % counts touchdowns and field goals per trip.
Compare to any opponent →Find similar matchups →Team identity →Situational splits →