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Baylor
BearsBalancedBig 12 Conference8-5#19 (+6.78)
Grades
Percentile grades against every FBS team this season — 99 is best. Curved so an average team reads C, not F.
86· BOverall
Offense
83· BRating
82· BPer play
75· BConsistency
68· CBig plays
Defense
52· CRating
35· DPer play
70· BConsistency
Situational
61· CRed-zone O
58· CRed-zone D
53· C3rd down O
31· D3rd down D
Analytical Fingerprint
SS-native team profile — opponent-adjusted and garbage-filtered EPA, success, and explosiveness.
Opp-Adj Offense
+0.032
Opp-Adj Defense
-0.011
higher = better
Offensive EPA/play
+0.088
Defensive EPA/play
+0.025
lower = better
Off Success Rate
47.7%
Def Success Rate
44.2%
allowed · lower = better
Explosive Rate
24.7%
pass EPA > 1.0 · rush > 0.8
Explosive Allowed
23.4%
lower = better
Net EPA/play
+0.064
net · higher = better
Recent EPA Trend
-0.056
last 3 weeks
Points / Drive
2.72
Special Teams
Opponent-adjusted special-teams component of the Final Rating, in expected points per game — positive = better. The four units sum to the net.
Net ST Rating
+1.87
expected pts/game
Kicking
+0.58
own kicking game
Kick Defense
+1.12
vs opponent kicks
Returns
+0.17
own return game
Return Defense
-0.00
vs opponent returns
Performance vs Perception
Our opponent-adjusted model rank vs. how others rate this team. Descriptive — where the model and the consensus disagree.
Model Rank
#19
opponent-adjusted strength
AP Poll
NR
model 7 spots higher
Market (Vegas)
#57
model 38 higher
Recruiting Rank
#46
model 27 spots higher
8 blue-chip recruits
Peer Context
Where Baylor ranks among all FBS teams in 2024 (percentile).
Opp-adjusted offense81th
Opp-adjusted defense36th
Offensive EPA/play83th
Defensive EPA/play35th
Offensive success rate71th
Explosiveness69th
Defensive havoc40th
Points per drive84th
Historical Fingerprint
Most statistically similar team-seasons, 2017–2025, by the same 44-feature profile The Archive uses. Descriptive context, not a forecast.
1Liberty2019OA +0.049 / -0.100similar: defensive EPA, rushing offense, offensive EPA4582TCU2022OA +0.134 / +0.023similar: defensive EPA, TD drive rate, passing offense4303Texas2019OA +0.093 / +0.011similar: run defense, TD drive rate, defensive EPA4224Western Michigan2019OA +0.041 / -0.042similar: TD drive rate, pass defense, takeaway rate4215NC State2017OA +0.101 / +0.021similar: offensive EPA, defensive success rate, offensive success rate414
2024 Schedule & Results
13 games
| Wk | Opponent | Score | W/L | Spread | ATS | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | vs Tarleton State | 45-3 | W | -34.0 | W | 54 | U |
| 2 | @ Utah | 12-23 | L | +17.3 | W | 53.5 | U |
| 3 | vs Air Force | 31-3 | W | -16.5 | W | 41.5 | U |
| 4 | @ Colorado | 31-38 | L | +2.0 | L | 50.5 | O |
| 5 | vs BYU | 28-34 | L | -3.0 | L | 45.5 | O |
| 6 | @ Iowa State | 21-43 | L | +13.0 | L | 44.5 | O |
| 8 | @ Texas Tech | 59-35 | W | +6.5 | W | 55.5 | O |
| 9 | vs Oklahoma State | 38-28 | W | -6.8 | W | 65 | O |
| 10 | vs TCU | 37-34 | W | -3.0 | P | 64.5 | O |
| 12 | @ West Virginia | 49-35 | W | -2.5 | W | 59 | O |
| 13 | @ Houston | 20-10 | W | -7.5 | W | 50.5 | U |
| 14 | vs Kansas | 45-17 | W | +1.5 | W | 61.5 | O |
| 19 | @ LSU | 31-44 | L | - | - | - | - |
Betting Profile
ATS Record
8-4-1
66.7%
O/U Record
9-4
69.2%
Straight Up
8-5
61.5%
Home ATS4-1
Away ATS4-3
Favorite ATS5-2
Underdog ATS3-2
Last 5 ATS
PWWWL
Graded against consensus market lines (median across multiple sportsbooks). Games the market never lined — mostly early-season non-FBS matchups — are excluded from ATS and O/U records; individual games may grade differently than closing-line sources.
Situational Profile
Situational EPA percentile across 8 phases (the larger the shape, the more dominant). Within-FBS ranks.
| Situation | OFF EPA | OFF Rank | DEF EPA | DEF Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Overall | +0.087 | 82th | +0.028 | 33th |
| Red Zone | +0.063 | 62th | -0.052 | 59th |
| Third Down | +0.123 | 54th | +0.171 | 31th |
| No Garbage Time | +0.091 | 82th | +0.030 | 31th |
| First Half | +0.066 | 71th | +0.077 | 19th |
| Second Half | +0.106 | 83th | -0.028 | 62th |
| Early Downs | +0.076 | 86th | -0.013 | 43th |
| Passing Downs | +0.059 | 57th | +0.039 | 39th |
| Standard Downs | +0.100 | 85th | +0.021 | 41th |
| Goal to Go | +0.095 | 63th | +0.033 | 43th |
Style & Tendencies
Pass 45.7%Rush 54.3%
Havoc/Game
11.8
Havoc Rate
17.1%
TO Margin
+0.5
Explosive/G
15.5
Yards/Game
440.1
Pts/Drive
2.72
3rd Down%
43.8%
3&Out%
17.7%
Team Statistics
2024 season totals across 13 games — Baylor vs. the combined line of every opponent in those games.
| Stat | Baylor | Opponents |
|---|---|---|
| Scoring | ||
| Points | 447 | 347 |
| Points / Game | 34.4 | 26.7 |
| First Downs | ||
| Total | 299 | 267 |
| Rushing | 118 | 104 |
| Passing | 157 | 134 |
| Penalty | 24 | 29 |
| Rushing | ||
| Attempts | 491 | 491 |
| Yards | 2,324 | 1,976 |
| Yards / Carry | 4.7 | 4.0 |
| Yards / Game | 178.8 | 152.0 |
| Touchdowns | 25 | 16 |
| Passing | ||
| Attempts | 413 | 393 |
| Completions | 253 | 237 |
| Completion % | 61.3% | 60.3% |
| Yards | 3,397 | 3,044 |
| Yards / Attempt | 8.2 | 7.7 |
| Touchdowns | 31 | 22 |
| Interceptions | 10 | 14 |
| Passer Rating | 150.28 | 136.72 |
| Total Offense | ||
| Plays | 904 | 884 |
| Yards | 5,721 | 5,020 |
| Yards / Play | 6.3 | 5.7 |
| Yards / Game | 440.1 | 386.2 |
| Punt Returns | ||
| Returns | 14 | 21 |
| Yards | 290 | 122 |
| Average | 20.7 | 5.8 |
| Touchdowns | 0 | 1 |
| Kickoff Returns | ||
| Returns | 26 | 23 |
| Yards | 553 | 453 |
| Average | 21.3 | 19.7 |
| Touchdowns | 1 | 1 |
| Punting | ||
| Punts | 44 | 54 |
| Yards | 2,122 | 2,296 |
| Average | 48.2 | 42.5 |
| Interception Returns | ||
| Returns | 14 | 10 |
| Yards | 145 | 127 |
| Touchdowns | 1 | 2 |
| Fumbles | ||
| Fumbles | 14 | 12 |
| Lost | 5 | 7 |
| Penalties | ||
| Penalties | 80 | 73 |
| Yards | 785 | 648 |
| Yards / Game | 60.4 | 49.8 |
| Time of Possession | ||
| Per Game | 28:01 | 31:59 |
| Third Downs | ||
| Attempts | 178 | 179 |
| Conversions | 78 | 64 |
| Conversion % | 43.8% | 35.8% |
| Fourth Downs | ||
| Attempts | 37 | 30 |
| Conversions | 20 | 19 |
| Conversion % | 54.1% | 63.3% |
| Red Zone | ||
| Trips | 47 | 48 |
| Scores (TD + FG) | 39 | 38 |
| Score % | 83.0% | 79.2% |
| Touchdowns | 30 | 28 |
| TD % | 63.8% | 58.3% |
| Field Goals | ||
| Attempts | 20 | 24 |
| Made | 14 | 16 |
| Pct | 70.0% | 66.7% |
| PAT Kicking | ||
| Attempts | 56 | 39 |
| Made | 55 | 37 |
| Pct | 98.2% | 94.9% |
| Two-Point Conversions | ||
| Attempts | 3 | 4 |
| Made | 1 | 2 |
Official-stats conventions: rushing includes sacks as negative attempts (NCAA), so Total Offense = rush + pass. Red-zone Score % counts touchdowns and field goals per trip.