Fourth Down Data
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WMU

Western Michigan

BroncosBalanced
Mid-American Conference7-6#95 (-6.87)

Grades

Percentile grades against every FBS team this season — 99 is best. Curved so an average team reads C, not F.

30· DOverall
Offense
41· CRating
88· BPer play
63· CConsistency
54· CBig plays
Defense
35· DRating
55· CPer play
19· DConsistency
Situational
41· CRed-zone O
83· BRed-zone D
97· A+3rd down O
39· D3rd down D
How grades work →

Analytical Fingerprint

SS-native team profile — opponent-adjusted and garbage-filtered EPA, success, and explosiveness.

Opp-Adj Offense
+0.041
Opp-Adj Defense
-0.042
higher = better
Offensive EPA/play
+0.122
Defensive EPA/play
-0.012
lower = better
Off Success Rate
47.4%
Def Success Rate
49.0%
allowed · lower = better
Explosive Rate
24.1%
pass EPA > 1.0 · rush > 0.8
Explosive Allowed
23.5%
lower = better
Net EPA/play
+0.134
net · higher = better
Recent EPA Trend
-0.143
last 3 weeks
Points / Drive
2.67

Special Teams

Opponent-adjusted special-teams component of the Final Rating, in expected points per game — positive = better. The four units sum to the net.

Net ST Rating
-1.19
expected pts/game
Kicking
-0.66
own kicking game
Kick Defense
-0.66
vs opponent kicks
Returns
+0.07
own return game
Return Defense
+0.07
vs opponent returns

Performance vs Perception

Our opponent-adjusted model rank vs. how others rate this team. Descriptive — where the model and the consensus disagree.

Model Rank
#95
opponent-adjusted strength
AP Poll
NR
—
Market (Vegas)
—
unavailable
Recruiting Rank
#75
recruiting 20 spots higher
0 blue-chip recruits

Peer Context

Where Western Michigan ranks among all FBS teams in 2019 (percentile).

Opp-adjusted offense
68th
Opp-adjusted defense
34th
Offensive EPA/play
89th
Defensive EPA/play
56th
Offensive success rate
60th
Explosiveness
54th
Defensive havoc
56th
Points per drive
85th

Historical Fingerprint

Most statistically similar team-seasons, 2017–2025, by the same 44-feature profile The Archive uses. Descriptive context, not a forecast.

1Baylor2024OA +0.032 / -0.011similar: TD drive rate, pass defense, takeaway rate4212Jacksonville State2024OA +0.056 / -0.008similar: passing offense, turnover rate, defensive success rate4043SMU2019OA +0.086 / -0.055similar: offensive EPA, passing offense, TD drive rate3914Michigan State2021OA +0.076 / -0.001similar: takeaway rate, offensive EPA, havoc rate3705Liberty2019OA +0.049 / -0.100similar: takeaway rate, TD drive rate, offensive EPA367

2019 Schedule & Results

13 games

WkOpponentScoreW/LSpreadATSTotalO/U
1vs Monmouth (NJ)48-13W+3.0P56U
2@ Michigan State17-51L+14.5L46.5O
3vs Georgia State57-10W-9.0W69.5U
4@ Syracuse33-52L+3.5L67.5O
5vs Central Michigan31-15W-15.0W62U
6@ Toledo24-31L+1.5L74U
7vs Miami (OH)38-16W-12.0W57.5U
8@ Eastern Michigan27-34L-9.0L61P
9vs Bowling Green49-10W-26.5W65.5U
11vs Ball State35-31W-6.5L65O
12@ Ohio37-34W+1.0W64O
14@ Northern Illinois14-17L-10.0L51U
18vs Western Kentucky20-23L----

Betting Profile

ATS Record
5-6-1
45.5%
O/U Record
4-7-1
36.4%
Straight Up
6-6
50.0%
Home ATS4-1
Away ATS1-5
Favorite ATS4-3
Underdog ATS1-3
Last 5 ATS
LWLWL
Full ATS log & splits →
Graded against consensus market lines (median across multiple sportsbooks). Games the market never lined — mostly early-season non-FBS matchups — are excluded from ATS and O/U records; individual games may grade differently than closing-line sources.

Situational Profile

Situational EPA percentile across 8 phases (the larger the shape, the more dominant). Within-FBS ranks.

Pass Off90thRush Off75thRed Zone Off42th3rd Down Off98thPass Def49thRush Def40thRed Zone Def83th3rd Down Def40th
SituationOFF EPAOFF RankDEF EPADEF Rank
Overall+0.11090th+0.00845th
Red Zone-0.07042th-0.19183th
Third Down+0.44498th+0.07040th
No Garbage Time+0.12388th-0.00352th
First Half+0.12986th-0.05966th
Second Half+0.09179th+0.07719th
Early Downs-0.02836th+0.04526th
Passing Downs+0.20490th-0.00649th
Standard Downs+0.06275th+0.01540th
Goal to Go-0.20428th-0.23675th

Style & Tendencies

Pass 45.1%Rush 54.9%
Havoc/Game
13.8
Havoc Rate
18.9%
TO Margin
+0.6
Explosive/G
14.8
Yards/Game
445.7
Pts/Drive
2.67
3rd Down%
45.3%
3&Out%
20.7%

Team Statistics

2019 season totals across 13 games — Western Michigan vs. the combined line of every opponent in those games.
StatWestern MichiganOpponents
Scoring
Points430337
Points / Game33.125.9
First Downs
Total289293
Rushing133117
Passing132153
Penalty2423
Rushing
Attempts503498
Yards2,6662,361
Yards / Carry5.34.7
Yards / Game205.1181.6
Touchdowns3518
Passing
Attempts413434
Completions246290
Completion %59.6%66.8%
Yards3,1283,095
Yards / Attempt7.67.1
Touchdowns2121
Interceptions813
Passer Rating136.09136.70
Total Offense
Plays916932
Yards5,7945,456
Yards / Play6.35.9
Yards / Game445.7419.7
Punt Returns
Returns1418
Yards47154
Average3.48.6
Touchdowns00
Kickoff Returns
Returns3642
Yards882857
Average24.520.4
Touchdowns01
Punting
Punts5256
Yards2,2002,503
Average42.344.7
Interception Returns
Returns138
Yards22016
Touchdowns20
Fumbles
Fumbles1414
Lost69
Penalties
Penalties8287
Yards759771
Yards / Game58.459.3
Time of Possession
Per Game30:2129:39
Third Downs
Attempts190183
Conversions8676
Conversion %45.3%41.5%
Fourth Downs
Attempts2821
Conversions168
Conversion %57.1%38.1%
Red Zone
Trips5554
Scores (TD + FG)4444
Score %80.0%81.5%
Touchdowns3429
TD %61.8%53.7%
Field Goals
Attempts1725
Made1020
Pct58.8%80.0%
PAT Kicking
Attempts5436
Made5235
Pct96.3%97.2%
Two-Point Conversions
Attempts34
Made01
Official-stats conventions: rushing includes sacks as negative attempts (NCAA), so Total Offense = rush + pass. Red-zone Score % counts touchdowns and field goals per trip.
Compare to any opponent →Find similar matchups →Team identity →Situational splits →