Fourth Down Data
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MSU

Michigan State

SpartansBalanced
Big Ten Conference11-2#27 (+5.76)

Grades

Percentile grades against every FBS team this season — 99 is best. Curved so an average team reads C, not F.

80· BOverall
Offense
72· BRating
79· BPer play
57· CConsistency
71· BBig plays
Defense
69· CRating
39· DPer play
40· CConsistency
Situational
70· BRed-zone O
74· BRed-zone D
42· C3rd down O
44· C3rd down D
How grades work →

Analytical Fingerprint

SS-native team profile — opponent-adjusted and garbage-filtered EPA, success, and explosiveness.

Opp-Adj Offense
+0.076
Opp-Adj Defense
-0.001
higher = better
Offensive EPA/play
+0.070
Defensive EPA/play
+0.009
lower = better
Off Success Rate
46.0%
Def Success Rate
47.7%
allowed · lower = better
Explosive Rate
25.7%
pass EPA > 1.0 · rush > 0.8
Explosive Allowed
23.4%
lower = better
Net EPA/play
+0.062
net · higher = better
Recent EPA Trend
-0.125
last 3 weeks
Points / Drive
2.51

Special Teams

Opponent-adjusted special-teams component of the Final Rating, in expected points per game — positive = better. The four units sum to the net.

Net ST Rating
+1.80
expected pts/game
Kicking
+0.77
own kicking game
Kick Defense
+0.44
vs opponent kicks
Returns
+0.60
own return game
Return Defense
-0.01
vs opponent returns

Performance vs Perception

Our opponent-adjusted model rank vs. how others rate this team. Descriptive — where the model and the consensus disagree.

Model Rank
#27
opponent-adjusted strength
AP Poll
#9
AP 18 spots higher
Market (Vegas)
#75
model 48 higher
Recruiting Rank
#41
model 14 spots higher
8 blue-chip recruits

Peer Context

Where Michigan State ranks among all FBS teams in 2021 (percentile).

Opp-adjusted offense
77th
Opp-adjusted defense
44th
Offensive EPA/play
80th
Defensive EPA/play
40th
Offensive success rate
47th
Explosiveness
71th
Defensive havoc
65th
Points per drive
69th

Historical Fingerprint

Most statistically similar team-seasons, 2017–2025, by the same 44-feature profile The Archive uses. Descriptive context, not a forecast.

1Western Michigan2019OA +0.041 / -0.042similar: takeaway rate, offensive EPA, havoc rate3702Memphis2026OA +0.102 / -0.012similar: havoc rate, takeaway rate, defensive EPA3693Baylor2024OA +0.032 / -0.011similar: rushing offense, offensive EPA, takeaway rate3644Western Michigan2018OA +0.035 / -0.079similar: turnover rate, TD drive rate, defensive EPA3565Kansas State2021OA +0.051 / +0.065similar: passing offense, offensive EPA, run defense350

2021 Schedule & Results

13 games

WkOpponentScoreW/LSpreadATSTotalO/U
1@ Northwestern38-21W----
2vs Youngstown State42-14W----
3@ Miami38-17W+6.0W56.5U
4vs Nebraska23-20W+5.5W--
5vs Western Kentucky48-31W-10.5W64.25O
6@ Rutgers31-13W-5.5W50U
7@ Indiana20-15W-4.5W48.5U
9vs Michigan37-33W+4.0W50.5O
10@ Purdue29-40L-3.0L53.5O
11vs Maryland40-21W-13.0W62U
12@ Ohio State7-56L+19.0L66.75U
13vs Penn State30-27W+1.0W51.5O
18vs Pittsburgh31-21W----

Betting Profile

ATS Record
10-2
83.3%
O/U Record
5-6
45.5%
Straight Up
11-2
84.6%
Home ATS6-0
Away ATS4-2
Favorite ATS5-1
Underdog ATS5-1
Last 5 ATS
LWLWW
Full ATS log & splits →
Graded against consensus market lines (median across multiple sportsbooks). Games the market never lined — mostly early-season non-FBS matchups — are excluded from ATS and O/U records; individual games may grade differently than closing-line sources.

Situational Profile

Situational EPA percentile across 8 phases (the larger the shape, the more dominant). Within-FBS ranks.

Pass Off71thRush Off69thRed Zone Off70th3rd Down Off42thPass Def36thRush Def42thRed Zone Def75th3rd Down Def44th
SituationOFF EPAOFF RankDEF EPADEF Rank
Overall+0.05872th+0.02634th
Red Zone+0.07670th-0.15375th
Third Down+0.04742th+0.09944th
No Garbage Time+0.06877th+0.00242th
First Half+0.13287th+0.12912th
Second Half-0.02438th-0.07072th
Early Downs+0.05072th-0.03961th
Passing Downs+0.06271th+0.04736th
Standard Downs+0.05669th+0.01642th
Goal to Go+0.10176th-0.39688th

Style & Tendencies

Pass 45.5%Rush 54.5%
Havoc/Game
15.9
Havoc Rate
19.8%
TO Margin
+0.2
Explosive/G
15.8
Yards/Game
428.7
Pts/Drive
2.51
3rd Down%
40.4%
3&Out%
22.0%

Team Statistics

2021 season totals across 13 games — Michigan State vs. the combined line of every opponent in those games.
StatMichigan StateOpponents
Scoring
Points414329
Points / Game31.825.3
First Downs
Total270316
Rushing110102
Passing137190
Penalty2324
Rushing
Attempts479446
Yards2,2831,511
Yards / Carry4.83.4
Yards / Game175.6116.2
Touchdowns2310
Passing
Attempts400579
Completions243380
Completion %60.8%65.6%
Yards3,2904,222
Yards / Attempt8.27.3
Touchdowns2727
Interceptions1010
Passer Rating147.12138.82
Total Offense
Plays8791,025
Yards5,5735,733
Yards / Play6.35.6
Yards / Game428.7441.0
Punt Returns
Returns1217
Yards237124
Average19.87.3
Touchdowns20
Kickoff Returns
Returns2628
Yards534496
Average20.517.7
Touchdowns00
Punting
Punts6056
Yards2,8572,345
Average47.641.9
Interception Returns
Returns1010
Yards23267
Touchdowns21
Fumbles
Fumbles1118
Lost710
Penalties
Penalties9075
Yards831599
Yards / Game63.946.1
Time of Possession
Per Game28:1931:41
Third Downs
Attempts178213
Conversions7285
Conversion %40.4%39.9%
Fourth Downs
Attempts2037
Conversions1424
Conversion %70.0%64.9%
Red Zone
Trips4853
Scores (TD + FG)4143
Score %85.4%81.1%
Touchdowns3126
TD %64.6%49.1%
Field Goals
Attempts2026
Made1219
Pct60.0%73.1%
PAT Kicking
Attempts4837
Made4636
Pct95.8%97.3%
Two-Point Conversions
Attempts62
Made41
Official-stats conventions: rushing includes sacks as negative attempts (NCAA), so Total Offense = rush + pass. Red-zone Score % counts touchdowns and field goals per trip.
Compare to any opponent →Find similar matchups →Team identity →Situational splits →