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WMU
Western Michigan
BroncosRun-HeavyMid-American Conference7-6#102 (-5.29)
Grades
Percentile grades against every FBS team this season — 99 is best. Curved so an average team reads C, not F.
23· DOverall
Offense
69· CRating
76· BPer play
88· BConsistency
74· BBig plays
Defense
14· FRating
37· DPer play
29· DConsistency
Situational
40· CRed-zone O
4· FRed-zone D
16· D3rd down O
38· D3rd down D
Analytical Fingerprint
SS-native team profile — opponent-adjusted and garbage-filtered EPA, success, and explosiveness.
Opp-Adj Offense
+0.035
Opp-Adj Defense
-0.079
higher = better
Offensive EPA/play
+0.067
Defensive EPA/play
+0.034
lower = better
Off Success Rate
50.4%
Def Success Rate
48.1%
allowed · lower = better
Explosive Rate
24.7%
pass EPA > 1.0 · rush > 0.8
Explosive Allowed
24.3%
lower = better
Net EPA/play
+0.033
net · higher = better
Recent EPA Trend
-0.109
last 3 weeks
Points / Drive
2.35
Special Teams
Opponent-adjusted special-teams component of the Final Rating, in expected points per game — positive = better. The four units sum to the net.
Net ST Rating
-1.96
expected pts/game
Kicking
-1.41
own kicking game
Kick Defense
-0.71
vs opponent kicks
Returns
+0.08
own return game
Return Defense
+0.08
vs opponent returns
Performance vs Perception
Our opponent-adjusted model rank vs. how others rate this team. Descriptive — where the model and the consensus disagree.
Model Rank
#102
opponent-adjusted strength
AP Poll
NR
—
Market (Vegas)
—
unavailable
Recruiting Rank
#77
recruiting 25 spots higher
0 blue-chip recruits
Peer Context
Where Western Michigan ranks among all FBS teams in 2018 (percentile).
Opp-adjusted offense63th
Opp-adjusted defense21th
Offensive EPA/play77th
Defensive EPA/play37th
Offensive success rate89th
Explosiveness74th
Defensive havoc74th
Points per drive65th
Historical Fingerprint
Most statistically similar team-seasons, 2017–2025, by the same 44-feature profile The Archive uses. Descriptive context, not a forecast.
1Ole Miss2022OA +0.160 / -0.039similar: offensive EPA, rushing offense, defensive success rate3952Texas State2023OA +0.033 / -0.087similar: passing offense, offensive EPA, rushing offense3873Louisville2017OA +0.148 / -0.016similar: offensive success rate, turnover rate, defensive EPA3744Arkansas2022OA +0.169 / -0.023similar: offensive EPA, TD drive rate, turnover rate3665Michigan State2021OA +0.076 / -0.001similar: turnover rate, TD drive rate, defensive EPA356
2018 Schedule & Results
13 games
| Wk | Opponent | Score | W/L | Spread | ATS | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | vs Syracuse | 42-55 | L | +10.0 | L | 52 | O |
| 2 | @ Michigan | 3-49 | L | +27.5 | L | 54.5 | U |
| 3 | vs Delaware State | 68-0 | W | -47.0 | W | - | - |
| 4 | @ Georgia State | 34-15 | W | -8.5 | W | 61 | U |
| 5 | @ Miami (OH) | 40-39 | W | -3.0 | L | 52.5 | O |
| 6 | vs Eastern Michigan | 27-24 | W | -4.5 | L | 59 | U |
| 7 | @ Bowling Green | 42-35 | W | -14.5 | L | 68.5 | O |
| 8 | @ Central Michigan | 35-10 | W | -7.0 | W | 54 | U |
| 9 | vs Toledo | 24-51 | L | -4.0 | L | 69 | O |
| 10 | vs Ohio | 14-59 | L | +3.0 | L | 65 | O |
| 12 | @ Ball State | 41-42 | L | -10.0 | L | 58 | O |
| 13 | vs Northern Illinois | 28-21 | W | +6.5 | W | 48.5 | O |
| 17 | @ BYU | 18-49 | L | - | - | - | - |
Betting Profile
ATS Record
4-8
33.3%
O/U Record
7-4
63.6%
Straight Up
7-5
58.3%
Home ATS2-3
Away ATS2-5
Favorite ATS3-5
Underdog ATS1-3
Last 5 ATS
WLLLW
Graded against consensus market lines (median across multiple sportsbooks). Games the market never lined — mostly early-season non-FBS matchups — are excluded from ATS and O/U records; individual games may grade differently than closing-line sources.
Situational Profile
Situational EPA percentile across 8 phases (the larger the shape, the more dominant). Within-FBS ranks.
| Situation | OFF EPA | OFF Rank | DEF EPA | DEF Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Overall | +0.068 | 78th | +0.036 | 36th |
| Red Zone | -0.017 | 41th | +0.347 | 4th |
| Third Down | -0.106 | 16th | +0.066 | 38th |
| No Garbage Time | +0.078 | 80th | +0.041 | 33th |
| First Half | -0.041 | 34th | -0.019 | 51th |
| Second Half | +0.179 | 97th | +0.096 | 19th |
| Early Downs | +0.114 | 95th | +0.020 | 36th |
| Passing Downs | +0.016 | 55th | +0.145 | 14th |
| Standard Downs | +0.091 | 88th | -0.023 | 53th |
| Goal to Go | +0.127 | 60th | +0.333 | 13th |
Style & Tendencies
Pass 41.2%Rush 58.8%
Havoc/Game
13.4
Havoc Rate
20.9%
TO Margin
+0.1
Explosive/G
15.2
Yards/Game
436.8
Pts/Drive
2.35
3rd Down%
36.5%
3&Out%
17.7%
Team Statistics
2018 season totals across 13 games — Western Michigan vs. the combined line of every opponent in those games.
| Stat | Western Michigan | Opponents |
|---|---|---|
| Scoring | ||
| Points | 416 | 449 |
| Points / Game | 32.0 | 34.5 |
| First Downs | ||
| Total | 296 | 255 |
| Rushing | 129 | 112 |
| Passing | 136 | 123 |
| Penalty | 31 | 20 |
| Rushing | ||
| Attempts | 566 | 485 |
| Yards | 2,593 | 2,156 |
| Yards / Carry | 4.6 | 4.4 |
| Yards / Game | 199.5 | 165.8 |
| Touchdowns | 32 | 27 |
| Passing | ||
| Attempts | 396 | 328 |
| Completions | 243 | 205 |
| Completion % | 61.4% | 62.5% |
| Yards | 3,086 | 2,870 |
| Yards / Attempt | 7.8 | 8.8 |
| Touchdowns | 20 | 30 |
| Interceptions | 9 | 9 |
| Passer Rating | 138.95 | 160.70 |
| Total Offense | ||
| Plays | 962 | 813 |
| Yards | 5,679 | 5,026 |
| Yards / Play | 5.9 | 6.2 |
| Yards / Game | 436.8 | 386.6 |
| Punt Returns | ||
| Returns | 16 | 13 |
| Yards | 343 | 102 |
| Average | 21.4 | 7.8 |
| Touchdowns | 2 | 1 |
| Kickoff Returns | ||
| Returns | 38 | 57 |
| Yards | 599 | 1,087 |
| Average | 15.8 | 19.1 |
| Touchdowns | 0 | 1 |
| Punting | ||
| Punts | 59 | 62 |
| Yards | 2,104 | 2,698 |
| Average | 35.7 | 43.5 |
| Interception Returns | ||
| Returns | 9 | 9 |
| Yards | 55 | 64 |
| Touchdowns | 0 | 0 |
| Fumbles | ||
| Fumbles | 18 | 22 |
| Lost | 10 | 11 |
| Penalties | ||
| Penalties | 77 | 84 |
| Yards | 678 | 707 |
| Yards / Game | 52.2 | 54.4 |
| Time of Possession | ||
| Per Game | 33:37 | 26:23 |
| Third Downs | ||
| Attempts | 189 | 155 |
| Conversions | 69 | 54 |
| Conversion % | 36.5% | 34.8% |
| Fourth Downs | ||
| Attempts | 34 | 16 |
| Conversions | 20 | 8 |
| Conversion % | 58.8% | 50.0% |
| Red Zone | ||
| Trips | 55 | 55 |
| Scores (TD + FG) | 45 | 50 |
| Score % | 81.8% | 90.9% |
| Touchdowns | 36 | 43 |
| TD % | 65.5% | 78.2% |
| Field Goals | ||
| Attempts | 16 | 16 |
| Made | 11 | 11 |
| Pct | 68.8% | 68.8% |
| PAT Kicking | ||
| Attempts | 50 | 58 |
| Made | 47 | 56 |
| Pct | 94.0% | 96.6% |
| Two-Point Conversions | ||
| Attempts | 5 | 2 |
| Made | 3 | 0 |
Official-stats conventions: rushing includes sacks as negative attempts (NCAA), so Total Offense = rush + pass. Red-zone Score % counts touchdowns and field goals per trip.