Fourth Down Data
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CCU

Coastal Carolina

ChanticleersRun-Heavy
Sun Belt Conference5-7#90 (-5.73)

Grades

Percentile grades against every FBS team this season — 99 is best. Curved so an average team reads C, not F.

33· DOverall
Offense
63· CRating
64· CPer play
84· BConsistency
58· CBig plays
Defense
15· DRating
26· DPer play
8· FConsistency
Situational
63· CRed-zone O
4· FRed-zone D
39· D3rd down O
18· D3rd down D
How grades work →

Analytical Fingerprint

SS-native team profile — opponent-adjusted and garbage-filtered EPA, success, and explosiveness.

Opp-Adj Offense
-0.000
Opp-Adj Defense
-0.063
higher = better
Offensive EPA/play
+0.043
Defensive EPA/play
+0.067
lower = better
Off Success Rate
50.4%
Def Success Rate
50.9%
allowed · lower = better
Explosive Rate
24.2%
pass EPA > 1.0 · rush > 0.8
Explosive Allowed
26.0%
lower = better
Net EPA/play
-0.024
net · higher = better
Recent EPA Trend
-0.009
last 3 weeks
Points / Drive
2.47

Special Teams

Opponent-adjusted special-teams component of the Final Rating, in expected points per game — positive = better. The four units sum to the net.

Net ST Rating
-0.26
expected pts/game
Kicking
-1.01
own kicking game
Kick Defense
+0.85
vs opponent kicks
Returns
-0.04
own return game
Return Defense
-0.06
vs opponent returns

Performance vs Perception

Our opponent-adjusted model rank vs. how others rate this team. Descriptive — where the model and the consensus disagree.

Model Rank
#90
opponent-adjusted strength
AP Poll
NR
—
Market (Vegas)
—
unavailable
Recruiting Rank
#75
recruiting 15 spots higher
0 blue-chip recruits

Peer Context

Where Coastal Carolina ranks among all FBS teams in 2019 (percentile).

Opp-adjusted offense
51th
Opp-adjusted defense
25th
Offensive EPA/play
65th
Defensive EPA/play
26th
Offensive success rate
89th
Explosiveness
58th
Defensive havoc
31th
Points per drive
69th

Historical Fingerprint

Most statistically similar team-seasons, 2017–2025, by the same 44-feature profile The Archive uses. Descriptive context, not a forecast.

1Fresno State2019OA -0.044 / -0.036similar: run defense, offensive EPA, passing offense4242Louisiana2023OA +0.073 / -0.059similar: offensive success rate, TD drive rate, defensive success rate4103Eastern Michigan2022OA +0.042 / -0.141similar: offensive EPA, passing offense, pass defense4034Eastern Michigan2019OA +0.042 / -0.114similar: pass defense, offensive success rate, defensive success rate3735South Alabama2025OA +0.027 / -0.099similar: pass defense, offensive EPA, rushing offense371

2019 Schedule & Results

12 games

WkOpponentScoreW/LSpreadATSTotalO/U
1vs Eastern Michigan23-30L+5.0L55U
2@ Kansas12-7W+7.0W54.5U
3vs Norfolk State46-7W-25.5W48.5O
4@ Massachusetts62-28W-17.0W61.5O
5@ App State37-56L+14.5L58O
7vs Georgia State21-31L-3.5L64.5U
8@ Georgia Southern27-30L+7.0W43O
10vs Troy36-35W+2.0W60.5O
11vs Louisiana7-48L+14.0L58U
12@ Arkansas State27-28L+14.0W60.5U
13@ UL Monroe42-45L+6.0W63.5O
14vs Texas State24-21W-7.0L52U

Betting Profile

ATS Record
7-5
58.3%
O/U Record
6-6
50.0%
Straight Up
5-7
41.7%
Home ATS2-4
Away ATS5-1
Favorite ATS2-2
Underdog ATS5-3
Last 5 ATS
WLWWL
Full ATS log & splits →
Graded against consensus market lines (median across multiple sportsbooks). Games the market never lined — mostly early-season non-FBS matchups — are excluded from ATS and O/U records; individual games may grade differently than closing-line sources.

Situational Profile

Situational EPA percentile across 8 phases (the larger the shape, the more dominant). Within-FBS ranks.

Pass Off72thRush Off70thRed Zone Off63th3rd Down Off40thPass Def22thRush Def27thRed Zone Def5th3rd Down Def18th
SituationOFF EPAOFF RankDEF EPADEF Rank
Overall+0.06571th+0.07023th
Red Zone+0.03463th+0.2445th
Third Down-0.01340th+0.17818th
No Garbage Time+0.04362th+0.06426th
First Half+0.07872th+0.12114th
Second Half+0.05169th+0.01843th
Early Downs+0.03163th+0.04031th
Passing Downs+0.10972th+0.11822th
Standard Downs+0.04570th+0.04927th
Goal to Go+0.40094th+0.3098th

Style & Tendencies

Pass 39.1%Rush 60.9%
Havoc/Game
11.1
Havoc Rate
17.0%
TO Margin
0.0
Explosive/G
15.2
Yards/Game
393.8
Pts/Drive
2.47
3rd Down%
40.7%
3&Out%
20.6%

Team Statistics

2019 season totals across 12 games — Coastal Carolina vs. the combined line of every opponent in those games.
StatCoastal CarolinaOpponents
Scoring
Points364366
Points / Game30.330.5
First Downs
Total266241
Rushing139114
Passing111112
Penalty1615
Rushing
Attempts520434
Yards2,3461,924
Yards / Carry4.54.4
Yards / Game195.5160.3
Touchdowns2423
Passing
Attempts334327
Completions217228
Completion %65.0%69.7%
Yards2,3792,679
Yards / Attempt7.18.2
Touchdowns2125
Interceptions911
Passer Rating140.16157.04
Total Offense
Plays854761
Yards4,7254,603
Yards / Play5.56.0
Yards / Game393.8383.6
Punt Returns
Returns1214
Yards18390
Average15.36.4
Touchdowns10
Kickoff Returns
Returns1741
Yards2671,008
Average15.724.6
Touchdowns00
Punting
Punts4343
Yards1,6841,619
Average39.237.7
Interception Returns
Returns119
Yards127115
Touchdowns02
Fumbles
Fumbles1512
Lost86
Penalties
Penalties6780
Yards586677
Yards / Game48.856.4
Time of Possession
Per Game33:2426:36
Third Downs
Attempts172146
Conversions7068
Conversion %40.7%46.6%
Fourth Downs
Attempts2917
Conversions2312
Conversion %79.3%70.6%
Red Zone
Trips5442
Scores (TD + FG)4336
Score %79.6%85.7%
Touchdowns3432
TD %63.0%76.2%
Field Goals
Attempts2013
Made156
Pct75.0%46.2%
PAT Kicking
Attempts3948
Made3548
Pct89.7%100.0%
Two-Point Conversions
Attempts71
Made40
Official-stats conventions: rushing includes sacks as negative attempts (NCAA), so Total Offense = rush + pass. Red-zone Score % counts touchdowns and field goals per trip.
Compare to any opponent →Find similar matchups →Team identity →Situational splits →