Fourth Down Data
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EMU

Eastern Michigan

EaglesBalanced
Mid-American Conference6-7#91 (-6.11)

Grades

Percentile grades against every FBS team this season — 99 is best. Curved so an average team reads C, not F.

33· DOverall
Offense
64· CRating
72· BPer play
81· BConsistency
37· DBig plays
Defense
13· FRating
21· DPer play
5· FConsistency
Situational
35· DRed-zone O
11· FRed-zone D
38· D3rd down O
13· F3rd down D
How grades work →

Analytical Fingerprint

SS-native team profile — opponent-adjusted and garbage-filtered EPA, success, and explosiveness.

Opp-Adj Offense
+0.042
Opp-Adj Defense
-0.114
higher = better
Offensive EPA/play
+0.063
Defensive EPA/play
+0.076
lower = better
Off Success Rate
49.8%
Def Success Rate
50.2%
allowed · lower = better
Explosive Rate
23.2%
pass EPA > 1.0 · rush > 0.8
Explosive Allowed
24.1%
lower = better
Net EPA/play
-0.013
net · higher = better
Recent EPA Trend
+0.095
last 3 weeks
Points / Drive
2.30

Special Teams

Opponent-adjusted special-teams component of the Final Rating, in expected points per game — positive = better. The four units sum to the net.

Net ST Rating
+0.08
expected pts/game
Kicking
+0.00
own kicking game
Kick Defense
+0.33
vs opponent kicks
Returns
-0.08
own return game
Return Defense
-0.18
vs opponent returns

Performance vs Perception

Our opponent-adjusted model rank vs. how others rate this team. Descriptive — where the model and the consensus disagree.

Model Rank
#91
opponent-adjusted strength
AP Poll
NR
—
Market (Vegas)
—
unavailable
Recruiting Rank
#75
recruiting 16 spots higher
0 blue-chip recruits

Peer Context

Where Eastern Michigan ranks among all FBS teams in 2019 (percentile).

Opp-adjusted offense
69th
Opp-adjusted defense
10th
Offensive EPA/play
73th
Defensive EPA/play
22th
Offensive success rate
86th
Explosiveness
37th
Defensive havoc
16th
Points per drive
57th

Historical Fingerprint

Most statistically similar team-seasons, 2017–2025, by the same 44-feature profile The Archive uses. Descriptive context, not a forecast.

1Vanderbilt2018OA +0.122 / -0.036similar: pass defense, defensive success rate, run defense3882Coastal Carolina2019OA -0.000 / -0.063similar: pass defense, offensive success rate, defensive success rate3733Louisiana2023OA +0.073 / -0.059similar: defensive success rate, offensive success rate, passing offense3534San José State2019OA +0.064 / -0.097similar: defensive success rate, offensive EPA, passing offense3475Texas Tech2017OA +0.086 / -0.023similar: rushing offense, takeaway rate, havoc rate334

2019 Schedule & Results

13 games

WkOpponentScoreW/LSpreadATSTotalO/U
1@ Coastal Carolina30-23W+12.5W51O
2@ Kentucky17-38L+15.5L51.5O
3@ Illinois34-31W+7.0W57.5O
4vs Central Connecticut State34-29W-32.5L63P
6@ Central Michigan16-42L-4.0L54O
7vs Ball State23-29L-2.0L57U
8vs Western Michigan34-27W+9.0W61P
9@ Toledo34-37L+2.5L52O
10vs Buffalo14-43L+2.0L49.5O
12@ Akron42-14W-17.5W45O
13@ Northern Illinois45-17W+3.0W58O
14vs Kent State26-34L-4.0L68.5U
18vs Pittsburgh30-34L----

Betting Profile

ATS Record
5-7
41.7%
O/U Record
8-2-2
80.0%
Straight Up
5-7
41.7%
Home ATS2-4
Away ATS3-3
Favorite ATS1-4
Underdog ATS4-3
Last 5 ATS
LLWWL
Full ATS log & splits →
Graded against consensus market lines (median across multiple sportsbooks). Games the market never lined — mostly early-season non-FBS matchups — are excluded from ATS and O/U records; individual games may grade differently than closing-line sources.

Situational Profile

Situational EPA percentile across 8 phases (the larger the shape, the more dominant). Within-FBS ranks.

Pass Off86thRush Off68thRed Zone Off35th3rd Down Off38thPass Def41thRush Def4thRed Zone Def11th3rd Down Def13th
SituationOFF EPAOFF RankDEF EPADEF Rank
Overall+0.08379th+0.08617th
Red Zone-0.08135th+0.16611th
Third Down-0.01738th+0.24113th
No Garbage Time+0.06874th+0.07622th
First Half+0.08074th+0.12212th
Second Half+0.08578th+0.05027th
Early Downs+0.06375th+0.06418th
Passing Downs+0.17386th+0.03341th
Standard Downs+0.03968th+0.1104th
Goal to Go+0.42995th+0.06732th

Style & Tendencies

Pass 52.7%Rush 47.3%
Havoc/Game
11.3
Havoc Rate
15.6%
TO Margin
+0.3
Explosive/G
14.5
Yards/Game
405.5
Pts/Drive
2.30
3rd Down%
39.9%
3&Out%
17.9%

Team Statistics

2019 season totals across 13 games — Eastern Michigan vs. the combined line of every opponent in those games.
StatEastern MichiganOpponents
Scoring
Points379398
Points / Game29.230.6
First Downs
Total285289
Rushing91138
Passing168134
Penalty2617
Rushing
Attempts418542
Yards1,5902,525
Yards / Carry3.84.7
Yards / Game122.3194.2
Touchdowns2130
Passing
Attempts465380
Completions313241
Completion %67.3%63.4%
Yards3,6813,071
Yards / Attempt7.98.1
Touchdowns2721
Interceptions1211
Passer Rating147.81143.75
Total Offense
Plays883922
Yards5,2715,596
Yards / Play6.06.1
Yards / Game405.5430.5
Punt Returns
Returns1510
Yards180117
Average12.011.7
Touchdowns10
Kickoff Returns
Returns1626
Yards254619
Average15.923.8
Touchdowns01
Punting
Punts5052
Yards2,1902,073
Average43.839.9
Interception Returns
Returns1112
Yards13782
Touchdowns00
Fumbles
Fumbles1621
Lost510
Penalties
Penalties5977
Yards531760
Yards / Game40.858.5
Time of Possession
Per Game28:3331:27
Third Downs
Attempts168183
Conversions6782
Conversion %39.9%44.8%
Fourth Downs
Attempts2520
Conversions1215
Conversion %48.0%75.0%
Red Zone
Trips4947
Scores (TD + FG)3840
Score %77.6%85.1%
Touchdowns2935
TD %59.2%74.5%
Field Goals
Attempts1918
Made1411
Pct73.7%61.1%
PAT Kicking
Attempts3847
Made3545
Pct92.1%95.7%
Two-Point Conversions
Attempts114
Made43
Official-stats conventions: rushing includes sacks as negative attempts (NCAA), so Total Offense = rush + pass. Red-zone Score % counts touchdowns and field goals per trip.
Compare to any opponent →Find similar matchups →Team identity →Situational splits →