Fourth Down Data
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Texas Tech

Red RaidersBalanced
Big 12 Conference6-7#53 (+4.27)

Grades

Percentile grades against every FBS team this season — 99 is best. Curved so an average team reads C, not F.

60· COverall
Offense
77· BRating
69· CPer play
73· BConsistency
60· CBig plays
Defense
43· CRating
33· DPer play
18· DConsistency
Situational
14· FRed-zone O
39· DRed-zone D
83· B3rd down O
48· C3rd down D
How grades work →2017 is the earliest season the model grades — first-year numbers run a touch noisier than later seasons.

Analytical Fingerprint

SS-native team profile — opponent-adjusted and garbage-filtered EPA, success, and explosiveness.

Opp-Adj Offense
+0.086
Opp-Adj Defense
-0.023
higher = better
Offensive EPA/play
+0.036
Defensive EPA/play
+0.039
lower = better
Off Success Rate
48.7%
Def Success Rate
49.4%
allowed · lower = better
Explosive Rate
23.7%
pass EPA > 1.0 · rush > 0.8
Explosive Allowed
26.1%
lower = better
Net EPA/play
-0.003
net · higher = better
Recent EPA Trend
-0.150
last 3 weeks
Points / Drive
2.25

Special Teams

Opponent-adjusted special-teams component of the Final Rating, in expected points per game — positive = better. The four units sum to the net.

Net ST Rating
-0.62
expected pts/game
Kicking
-0.71
own kicking game
Kick Defense
-0.03
vs opponent kicks
Returns
+0.12
own return game
Return Defense
+0.01
vs opponent returns

Performance vs Perception

Our opponent-adjusted model rank vs. how others rate this team. Descriptive — where the model and the consensus disagree.

Model Rank
#53
opponent-adjusted strength
AP Poll
NR
—
Market (Vegas)
—
unavailable
Recruiting Rank
#40
recruiting 13 spots higher
7 blue-chip recruits

Peer Context

Where Texas Tech ranks among all FBS teams in 2017 (percentile).

Opp-adjusted offense
77th
Opp-adjusted defense
42th
Offensive EPA/play
70th
Defensive EPA/play
33th
Offensive success rate
81th
Explosiveness
61th
Defensive havoc
20th
Points per drive
62th

Historical Fingerprint

Most statistically similar team-seasons, 2017–2025, by the same 44-feature profile The Archive uses. Descriptive context, not a forecast.

1Arkansas State2019OA +0.036 / -0.048similar: offensive EPA, pass defense, TD drive rate3562Louisiana2023OA +0.073 / -0.059similar: TD drive rate, offensive EPA, takeaway rate3553Arizona State2018OA +0.072 / -0.049similar: defensive success rate, defensive EPA, pass defense3524Georgia State2023OA +0.002 / -0.083similar: turnover rate, TD drive rate, offensive EPA3495TCU2025OA +0.044 / -0.003similar: defensive EPA, offensive EPA, passing offense349

2017 Schedule & Results

13 games

WkOpponentScoreW/LSpreadATSTotalO/U
1vs Eastern Washington56-10W+2.0L66O
3vs Arizona State52-45W-6.5W74O
4@ Houston27-24W+7.0W68U
5vs Oklahoma State34-41L+10.5W85U
6@ Kansas65-19W-14.5W77O
7@ West Virginia35-46L+5.5L78O
8vs Iowa State13-31L-6.5L66.5U
9@ Oklahoma27-49L+19.5L77.5U
10vs Kansas State35-42L-3.5L62O
11@ Baylor38-24W-10.0W67U
12vs TCU3-27L+6.5L52U
13@ Texas27-23W+7.5W58.5U
17@ South Florida34-38L----

Betting Profile

ATS Record
6-6
50.0%
O/U Record
5-7
41.7%
Straight Up
5-7
41.7%
Home ATS2-3
Away ATS4-3
Favorite ATS3-2
Underdog ATS3-4
Last 5 ATS
LLWLW
Full ATS log & splits →
Graded against consensus market lines (median across multiple sportsbooks). Games the market never lined — mostly early-season non-FBS matchups — are excluded from ATS and O/U records; individual games may grade differently than closing-line sources.

Situational Profile

Situational EPA percentile across 8 phases (the larger the shape, the more dominant). Within-FBS ranks.

Pass Off65thRush Off68thRed Zone Off14th3rd Down Off84thPass Def35thRush Def43thRed Zone Def40th3rd Down Def48th
SituationOFF EPAOFF RankDEF EPADEF Rank
Overall+0.03871th+0.00641th
Red Zone-0.17114th+0.05840th
Third Down+0.18484th-0.00548th
No Garbage Time+0.04071th+0.03038th
First Half+0.07180th+0.00441th
Second Half+0.00457th+0.00838th
Early Downs+0.01467th+0.00532th
Passing Downs+0.05965th+0.03935th
Standard Downs+0.02768th-0.00843th
Goal to Go-0.25219th-0.10062th

Style & Tendencies

Pass 54.1%Rush 45.9%
Havoc/Game
11.8
Havoc Rate
15.0%
TO Margin
+0.8
Explosive/G
16.8
Yards/Game
474.6
Pts/Drive
2.25
3rd Down%
44.6%
3&Out%
22.9%

Team Statistics

2017 season totals across 13 games — Texas Tech vs. the combined line of every opponent in those games.
StatTexas TechOpponents
Scoring
Points446419
Points / Game34.332.2
First Downs
Total319316
Rushing106107
Passing188172
Penalty2537
Rushing
Attempts459488
Yards1,8322,101
Yards / Carry4.04.3
Yards / Game140.9161.6
Touchdowns1916
Passing
Attempts541510
Completions353321
Completion %65.2%62.9%
Yards4,3383,668
Yards / Attempt8.07.2
Touchdowns3533
Interceptions1214
Passer Rating149.52139.22
Total Offense
Plays1,000998
Yards6,1705,769
Yards / Play6.25.8
Yards / Game474.6443.8
Punt Returns
Returns1812
Yards10267
Average5.75.6
Touchdowns00
Kickoff Returns
Returns3132
Yards713831
Average23.026.0
Touchdowns10
Punting
Punts6258
Yards2,4892,510
Average40.143.3
Interception Returns
Returns1412
Yards284286
Touchdowns23
Fumbles
Fumbles1425
Lost615
Penalties
Penalties10476
Yards996745
Yards / Game76.657.3
Time of Possession
Per Game29:3030:30
Third Downs
Attempts193197
Conversions8683
Conversion %44.6%42.1%
Fourth Downs
Attempts2124
Conversions915
Conversion %42.9%62.5%
Red Zone
Trips6261
Scores (TD + FG)4350
Score %69.4%82.0%
Touchdowns3339
TD %53.2%63.9%
Field Goals
Attempts2322
Made1218
Pct52.2%81.8%
PAT Kicking
Attempts5949
Made5649
Pct94.9%100.0%
Two-Point Conversions
Attempts03
Made02
Official-stats conventions: rushing includes sacks as negative attempts (NCAA), so Total Offense = rush + pass. Red-zone Score % counts touchdowns and field goals per trip.
Compare to any opponent →Find similar matchups →Team identity →Situational splits →