Fourth Down Data
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TCU

TCU

Horned FrogsBalanced
Big 12 Conference9-4#36 (+7.52)

Grades

Percentile grades against every FBS team this season — 99 is best. Curved so an average team reads C, not F.

73· BOverall
Offense
72· BRating
73· BPer play
67· CConsistency
49· CBig plays
Defense
70· BRating
36· DPer play
53· CConsistency
Situational
34· DRed-zone O
26· DRed-zone D
87· B3rd down O
5· F3rd down D
How grades work →

Analytical Fingerprint

SS-native team profile — opponent-adjusted and garbage-filtered EPA, success, and explosiveness.

Opp-Adj Offense
+0.044
Opp-Adj Defense
-0.003
higher = better
Offensive EPA/play
+0.070
Defensive EPA/play
+0.015
lower = better
Off Success Rate
48.3%
Def Success Rate
44.9%
allowed · lower = better
Explosive Rate
22.7%
pass EPA > 1.0 · rush > 0.8
Explosive Allowed
23.4%
lower = better
Net EPA/play
+0.055
net · higher = better
Recent EPA Trend
-0.028
last 3 weeks
Points / Drive
2.64

Special Teams

Opponent-adjusted special-teams component of the Final Rating, in expected points per game — positive = better. The four units sum to the net.

Net ST Rating
+0.13
expected pts/game
Kicking
-0.22
own kicking game
Kick Defense
+0.35
vs opponent kicks
Returns
-0.00
own return game
Return Defense
+0.02
vs opponent returns

Performance vs Perception

Our opponent-adjusted model rank vs. how others rate this team. Descriptive — where the model and the consensus disagree.

Model Rank
#36
opponent-adjusted strength
AP Poll
#25
AP 11 spots higher
Market (Vegas)
#38
model 2 higher
Recruiting Rank
#26
recruiting 10 spots higher
22 blue-chip recruits

Peer Context

Where TCU ranks among all FBS teams in 2025 (percentile).

Opp-adjusted offense
70th
Opp-adjusted defense
52th
Offensive EPA/play
74th
Defensive EPA/play
36th
Offensive success rate
72th
Explosiveness
50th
Defensive havoc
27th
Points per drive
76th

Historical Fingerprint

Most statistically similar team-seasons, 2017–2025, by the same 44-feature profile The Archive uses. Descriptive context, not a forecast.

1Texas2026OA +0.032 / -0.028similar: offensive success rate, run defense, offensive EPA4272Baylor2024OA +0.032 / -0.011similar: offensive success rate, defensive EPA, TD drive rate3633USC2019OA +0.130 / -0.008similar: offensive EPA, defensive EPA, rushing offense3514Arkansas State2020OA +0.026 / -0.039similar: offensive EPA, offensive success rate, pass defense3505Texas Tech2017OA +0.086 / -0.023similar: defensive EPA, offensive EPA, passing offense349

2025 Schedule & Results

13 games

WkOpponentScoreW/LSpreadATSTotalO/U
1@ North Carolina48-14W-3.5W54.5O
3vs Abilene Christian42-21W-42.5L60.5O
4vs SMU35-24W+3.0P54.5U
5@ Arizona State24-27L----
6vs Colorado35-21W-13.5W57U
7@ Kansas State28-41L+3.5L44.5O
8vs Baylor42-36W-3.0W65.5O
9@ West Virginia23-17W-16.5L55.5U
11vs Iowa State17-20L-2.5L42.5U
12@ BYU13-44L+3.0L51O
13@ Houston17-14W-7.5L54.75U
14vs Cincinnati45-23W-3.5W57O
19vs USC30-27W----

Betting Profile

ATS Record
6-6-1
50.0%
O/U Record
7-6
53.8%
Straight Up
9-4
69.2%
Home ATS5-2
Away ATS1-4
Favorite ATS5-4
Underdog ATS1-2
Last 5 ATS
LLLWW
Full ATS log & splits →
Graded against consensus market lines (median across multiple sportsbooks). Games the market never lined — mostly early-season non-FBS matchups — are excluded from ATS and O/U records; individual games may grade differently than closing-line sources.

Situational Profile

Situational EPA percentile across 8 phases (the larger the shape, the more dominant). Within-FBS ranks.

Pass Off68thRush Off66thRed Zone Off35th3rd Down Off88thPass Def12thRush Def56thRed Zone Def26th3rd Down Def5th
SituationOFF EPAOFF RankDEF EPADEF Rank
Overall+0.04968th+0.03132th
Red Zone-0.07535th+0.12026th
Third Down+0.31288th+0.3695th
No Garbage Time+0.07677th+0.00143th
First Half+0.12484th-0.00343th
Second Half-0.03041th+0.06621th
Early Downs+0.00151th+0.00338th
Passing Downs+0.06568th+0.13912th
Standard Downs+0.04066th-0.02656th
Goal to Go+0.00255th-0.33484th

Style & Tendencies

Pass 51.3%Rush 48.7%
Havoc/Game
11.5
Havoc Rate
16.3%
TO Margin
+0.1
Explosive/G
14.5
Yards/Game
421.5
Pts/Drive
2.64
3rd Down%
47.4%
3&Out%
18.4%

Team Statistics

2025 season totals across 13 games — TCU vs. the combined line of every opponent in those games.
StatTCUOpponents
Scoring
Points399329
Points / Game30.725.3
First Downs
Total288263
Rushing10397
Passing170140
Penalty1526
Rushing
Attempts436466
Yards1,7081,730
Yards / Carry3.93.7
Yards / Game131.4133.1
Touchdowns2010
Passing
Attempts460425
Completions306261
Completion %66.5%61.4%
Yards3,7713,193
Yards / Attempt8.27.5
Touchdowns3025
Interceptions1514
Passer Rating150.38137.34
Total Offense
Plays896891
Yards5,4794,923
Yards / Play6.15.5
Yards / Game421.5378.7
Punt Returns
Returns811
Yards77113
Average9.610.3
Touchdowns01
Kickoff Returns
Returns2126
Yards470518
Average22.419.9
Touchdowns00
Punting
Punts4747
Yards1,9351,908
Average41.240.6
Interception Returns
Returns1415
Yards146123
Touchdowns12
Fumbles
Fumbles1315
Lost57
Penalties
Penalties8864
Yards806565
Yards / Game62.043.5
Time of Possession
Per Game28:5231:08
Third Downs
Attempts173183
Conversions8273
Conversion %47.4%39.9%
Fourth Downs
Attempts2530
Conversions1616
Conversion %64.0%53.3%
Red Zone
Trips5844
Scores (TD + FG)4738
Score %81.0%86.4%
Touchdowns3525
TD %60.3%56.8%
Field Goals
Attempts1524
Made1217
Pct80.0%70.8%
PAT Kicking
Attempts5131
Made5130
Pct100.0%96.8%
Two-Point Conversions
Attempts09
Made04
Official-stats conventions: rushing includes sacks as negative attempts (NCAA), so Total Offense = rush + pass. Red-zone Score % counts touchdowns and field goals per trip.
Compare to any opponent →Find similar matchups →Team identity →Situational splits →