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USC
USC
TrojansBalancedBig Ten Conference8-5#33 (+9.08)
Grades
Percentile grades against every FBS team this season — 99 is best. Curved so an average team reads C, not F.
75· BOverall
Offense
88· BRating
78· BPer play
89· BConsistency
61· CBig plays
Defense
51· CRating
41· CPer play
35· DConsistency
Situational
49· CRed-zone O
59· CRed-zone D
80· B3rd down O
23· D3rd down D
Analytical Fingerprint
SS-native team profile — opponent-adjusted and garbage-filtered EPA, success, and explosiveness.
Opp-Adj Offense
+0.130
Opp-Adj Defense
-0.008
higher = better
Offensive EPA/play
+0.093
Defensive EPA/play
+0.025
lower = better
Off Success Rate
51.2%
Def Success Rate
48.3%
allowed · lower = better
Explosive Rate
24.3%
pass EPA > 1.0 · rush > 0.8
Explosive Allowed
24.9%
lower = better
Net EPA/play
+0.068
net · higher = better
Recent EPA Trend
+0.073
last 3 weeks
Points / Drive
2.55
Special Teams
Opponent-adjusted special-teams component of the Final Rating, in expected points per game — positive = better. The four units sum to the net.
Net ST Rating
-0.60
expected pts/game
Kicking
-0.41
own kicking game
Kick Defense
-0.06
vs opponent kicks
Returns
+0.03
own return game
Return Defense
-0.16
vs opponent returns
Performance vs Perception
Our opponent-adjusted model rank vs. how others rate this team. Descriptive — where the model and the consensus disagree.
Model Rank
#33
opponent-adjusted strength
AP Poll
NR
—
Market (Vegas)
—
unavailable
Recruiting Rank
#10
recruiting 23 spots higher
48 blue-chip recruits
Peer Context
Where USC ranks among all FBS teams in 2019 (percentile).
Opp-adjusted offense93th
Opp-adjusted defense49th
Offensive EPA/play78th
Defensive EPA/play42th
Offensive success rate91th
Explosiveness62th
Defensive havoc57th
Points per drive75th
Historical Fingerprint
Most statistically similar team-seasons, 2017–2025, by the same 44-feature profile The Archive uses. Descriptive context, not a forecast.
1UCLA2017OA +0.065 / -0.053similar: offensive EPA, passing offense, rushing offense3772Arkansas State2019OA +0.036 / -0.048similar: pass defense, rushing offense, run defense3683Florida2020OA +0.063 / -0.013similar: havoc rate, takeaway rate, passing offense3634West Virginia2017OA +0.130 / +0.011similar: passing offense, turnover rate, defensive EPA3615TCU2025OA +0.044 / -0.003similar: offensive EPA, defensive EPA, passing offense350
2019 Schedule & Results
13 games
| Wk | Opponent | Score | W/L | Spread | ATS | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | vs Fresno State | 31-23 | W | -1.5 | L | 54.5 | O |
| 2 | vs Stanford | 45-20 | W | -3.0 | W | 43 | O |
| 3 | @ BYU | 27-30 | L | -4.5 | L | 57.5 | U |
| 4 | vs Utah | 30-23 | W | +3.5 | W | 53.5 | U |
| 5 | @ Washington | 14-28 | L | +12.5 | L | 60.5 | U |
| 7 | @ Notre Dame | 27-30 | L | +10.5 | W | 60 | U |
| 8 | vs Arizona | 41-14 | W | -10.0 | W | 68 | U |
| 9 | @ Colorado | 35-31 | W | -10.5 | L | 65 | O |
| 10 | vs Oregon | 24-56 | L | +4.0 | L | 60.5 | O |
| 11 | @ Arizona State | 31-26 | W | -4.5 | W | 54.5 | O |
| 12 | @ California | 41-17 | W | -4.5 | W | 48 | O |
| 13 | vs UCLA | 52-35 | W | -13.5 | W | 67 | O |
| 18 | @ Iowa | 24-49 | L | - | - | - | - |
Betting Profile
ATS Record
7-5
58.3%
O/U Record
7-5
58.3%
Straight Up
7-5
58.3%
Home ATS4-1
Away ATS3-4
Favorite ATS5-3
Underdog ATS2-2
Last 5 ATS
LLWWW
Graded against consensus market lines (median across multiple sportsbooks). Games the market never lined — mostly early-season non-FBS matchups — are excluded from ATS and O/U records; individual games may grade differently than closing-line sources.
Situational Profile
Situational EPA percentile across 8 phases (the larger the shape, the more dominant). Within-FBS ranks.
| Situation | OFF EPA | OFF Rank | DEF EPA | DEF Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Overall | +0.101 | 85th | +0.055 | 28th |
| Red Zone | -0.035 | 49th | -0.045 | 59th |
| Third Down | +0.190 | 81th | +0.158 | 23th |
| No Garbage Time | +0.090 | 78th | +0.031 | 41th |
| First Half | +0.123 | 84th | +0.083 | 25th |
| Second Half | +0.076 | 72th | +0.030 | 37th |
| Early Downs | +0.141 | 96th | +0.036 | 33th |
| Passing Downs | +0.036 | 52th | +0.112 | 24th |
| Standard Downs | +0.128 | 92th | +0.026 | 35th |
| Goal to Go | +0.022 | 54th | -0.046 | 52th |
Style & Tendencies
Pass 56.8%Rush 43.2%
Havoc/Game
14.0
Havoc Rate
19.0%
TO Margin
-0.8
Explosive/G
15.8
Yards/Game
454.0
Pts/Drive
2.55
3rd Down%
45.8%
3&Out%
17.9%
Team Statistics
2019 season totals across 13 games — USC vs. the combined line of every opponent in those games.
| Stat | USC | Opponents |
|---|---|---|
| Scoring | ||
| Points | 422 | 382 |
| Points / Game | 32.5 | 29.4 |
| First Downs | ||
| Total | 301 | 297 |
| Rushing | 92 | 124 |
| Passing | 183 | 141 |
| Penalty | 26 | 32 |
| Rushing | ||
| Attempts | 391 | 471 |
| Yards | 1,537 | 2,110 |
| Yards / Carry | 3.9 | 4.5 |
| Yards / Game | 118.2 | 162.3 |
| Touchdowns | 18 | 19 |
| Passing | ||
| Attempts | 514 | 460 |
| Completions | 365 | 281 |
| Completion % | 71.0% | 61.1% |
| Yards | 4,365 | 3,200 |
| Yards / Attempt | 8.5 | 7.0 |
| Touchdowns | 35 | 24 |
| Interceptions | 15 | 9 |
| Passer Rating | 158.98 | 132.83 |
| Total Offense | ||
| Plays | 905 | 931 |
| Yards | 5,902 | 5,310 |
| Yards / Play | 6.5 | 5.7 |
| Yards / Game | 454.0 | 408.5 |
| Punt Returns | ||
| Returns | 20 | 10 |
| Yards | 112 | 57 |
| Average | 5.6 | 5.7 |
| Touchdowns | 0 | 0 |
| Kickoff Returns | ||
| Returns | 40 | 37 |
| Yards | 844 | 1,102 |
| Average | 21.1 | 29.8 |
| Touchdowns | 1 | 2 |
| Punting | ||
| Punts | 52 | 57 |
| Yards | 2,141 | 2,402 |
| Average | 41.2 | 42.1 |
| Interception Returns | ||
| Returns | 9 | 15 |
| Yards | 81 | 188 |
| Touchdowns | 0 | 2 |
| Fumbles | ||
| Fumbles | 22 | 14 |
| Lost | 11 | 7 |
| Penalties | ||
| Penalties | 90 | 102 |
| Yards | 877 | 845 |
| Yards / Game | 67.5 | 65.0 |
| Time of Possession | ||
| Per Game | 28:48 | 31:12 |
| Third Downs | ||
| Attempts | 168 | 178 |
| Conversions | 77 | 72 |
| Conversion % | 45.8% | 40.4% |
| Fourth Downs | ||
| Attempts | 10 | 19 |
| Conversions | 6 | 10 |
| Conversion % | 60.0% | 52.6% |
| Red Zone | ||
| Trips | 55 | 49 |
| Scores (TD + FG) | 46 | 42 |
| Score % | 83.6% | 85.7% |
| Touchdowns | 34 | 30 |
| TD % | 61.8% | 61.2% |
| Field Goals | ||
| Attempts | 17 | 25 |
| Made | 14 | 18 |
| Pct | 82.4% | 72.0% |
| PAT Kicking | ||
| Attempts | 54 | 45 |
| Made | 54 | 44 |
| Pct | 100.0% | 97.8% |
| Two-Point Conversions | ||
| Attempts | 0 | 2 |
| Made | 0 | 1 |
Official-stats conventions: rushing includes sacks as negative attempts (NCAA), so Total Offense = rush + pass. Red-zone Score % counts touchdowns and field goals per trip.