Fourth Down Data
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WVU

West Virginia

MountaineersBalanced
Big 12 Conference7-6#37 (+7.23)

Grades

Percentile grades against every FBS team this season — 99 is best. Curved so an average team reads C, not F.

72· BOverall
Offense
82· BRating
63· CPer play
35· DConsistency
47· CBig plays
Defense
53· CRating
42· CPer play
55· CConsistency
Situational
80· BRed-zone O
37· DRed-zone D
34· D3rd down O
36· D3rd down D
How grades work →2017 is the earliest season the model grades — first-year numbers run a touch noisier than later seasons.

Analytical Fingerprint

SS-native team profile — opponent-adjusted and garbage-filtered EPA, success, and explosiveness.

Opp-Adj Offense
+0.130
Opp-Adj Defense
+0.011
higher = better
Offensive EPA/play
+0.019
Defensive EPA/play
+0.005
lower = better
Off Success Rate
45.3%
Def Success Rate
45.9%
allowed · lower = better
Explosive Rate
23.0%
pass EPA > 1.0 · rush > 0.8
Explosive Allowed
25.2%
lower = better
Net EPA/play
+0.014
net · higher = better
Recent EPA Trend
-0.178
last 3 weeks
Points / Drive
2.26

Special Teams

Opponent-adjusted special-teams component of the Final Rating, in expected points per game — positive = better. The four units sum to the net.

Net ST Rating
-0.45
expected pts/game
Kicking
-0.80
own kicking game
Kick Defense
+0.26
vs opponent kicks
Returns
+0.01
own return game
Return Defense
+0.08
vs opponent returns

Performance vs Perception

Our opponent-adjusted model rank vs. how others rate this team. Descriptive — where the model and the consensus disagree.

Model Rank
#37
opponent-adjusted strength
AP Poll
NR
—
Market (Vegas)
—
unavailable
Recruiting Rank
#44
model 7 spots higher
5 blue-chip recruits

Peer Context

Where West Virginia ranks among all FBS teams in 2017 (percentile).

Opp-adjusted offense
89th
Opp-adjusted defense
56th
Offensive EPA/play
64th
Defensive EPA/play
43th
Offensive success rate
37th
Explosiveness
47th
Defensive havoc
56th
Points per drive
62th

Historical Fingerprint

Most statistically similar team-seasons, 2017–2025, by the same 44-feature profile The Archive uses. Descriptive context, not a forecast.

1Utah State2023OA +0.011 / -0.063similar: pass defense, turnover rate, TD drive rate4542Ole Miss2026OA +0.002 / -0.042similar: rushing offense, defensive success rate, takeaway rate3803USC2019OA +0.130 / -0.008similar: passing offense, turnover rate, defensive EPA3614Rice2023OA -0.014 / -0.058similar: run defense, defensive EPA, turnover rate3555TCU2024OA +0.038 / -0.013similar: passing offense, rushing offense, takeaway rate338

2017 Schedule & Results

13 games

WkOpponentScoreW/LSpreadATSTotalO/U
1@ Virginia Tech24-31L+7.0L56U
2vs East Carolina56-20W-25.0W68O
3vs Delaware State59-16W-62.0L--
4@ Kansas56-34W-23.5L70.5O
6@ TCU24-31L+12.0W66.5U
7vs Texas Tech46-35W-5.5W78O
8@ Baylor38-36W-10.5L67O
9vs Oklahoma State39-50L+8.5L78O
10vs Iowa State20-16W-3.5W59U
11@ Kansas State28-23W-3.0W58U
12vs Texas14-28L-3.0L53.5U
13@ Oklahoma31-59L+23.0L69O
18vs Utah14-30L----

Betting Profile

ATS Record
5-7
41.7%
O/U Record
6-5
54.5%
Straight Up
7-5
58.3%
Home ATS3-4
Away ATS2-3
Favorite ATS4-4
Underdog ATS1-3
Last 5 ATS
LWWLL
Full ATS log & splits →
Graded against consensus market lines (median across multiple sportsbooks). Games the market never lined — mostly early-season non-FBS matchups — are excluded from ATS and O/U records; individual games may grade differently than closing-line sources.

Situational Profile

Situational EPA percentile across 8 phases (the larger the shape, the more dominant). Within-FBS ranks.

Pass Off31thRush Off89thRed Zone Off81th3rd Down Off35thPass Def50thRush Def20thRed Zone Def38th3rd Down Def37th
SituationOFF EPAOFF RankDEF EPADEF Rank
Overall+0.04975th+0.02835th
Red Zone+0.15481th+0.06138th
Third Down-0.08635th+0.04337th
No Garbage Time+0.03468th+0.00745th
First Half+0.06878th-0.00242th
Second Half+0.02869th+0.05920th
Early Downs+0.11595th-0.00638th
Passing Downs-0.07431th-0.01850th
Standard Downs+0.11189th+0.05220th
Goal to Go+0.15476th-0.08158th

Style & Tendencies

Pass 51.1%Rush 48.9%
Havoc/Game
13.8
Havoc Rate
18.6%
TO Margin
-0.5
Explosive/G
14.3
Yards/Game
459.6
Pts/Drive
2.26
3rd Down%
33.5%
3&Out%
19.7%

Team Statistics

2017 season totals across 13 games — West Virginia vs. the combined line of every opponent in those games.
StatWest VirginiaOpponents
Scoring
Points449409
Points / Game34.531.5
First Downs
Total301279
Rushing112121
Passing159126
Penalty3032
Rushing
Attempts460539
Yards1,9542,654
Yards / Carry4.24.9
Yards / Game150.3204.2
Touchdowns1826
Passing
Attempts481405
Completions294234
Completion %61.1%57.8%
Yards4,0213,138
Yards / Attempt8.47.7
Touchdowns3724
Interceptions1411
Passer Rating150.91136.99
Total Offense
Plays941944
Yards5,9755,792
Yards / Play6.36.1
Yards / Game459.6445.5
Punt Returns
Returns2220
Yards106223
Average4.811.2
Touchdowns10
Kickoff Returns
Returns4045
Yards973884
Average24.319.6
Touchdowns00
Punting
Punts7471
Yards2,9903,049
Average40.442.9
Interception Returns
Returns1114
Yards259215
Touchdowns30
Fumbles
Fumbles2216
Lost128
Penalties
Penalties7993
Yards776850
Yards / Game59.765.4
Time of Possession
Per Game27:1532:45
Third Downs
Attempts185195
Conversions6265
Conversion %33.5%33.3%
Fourth Downs
Attempts2125
Conversions1618
Conversion %76.2%72.0%
Red Zone
Trips5360
Scores (TD + FG)4651
Score %86.8%85.0%
Touchdowns3637
TD %67.9%61.7%
Field Goals
Attempts1529
Made1121
Pct73.3%72.4%
PAT Kicking
Attempts5647
Made5646
Pct100.0%97.9%
Two-Point Conversions
Attempts33
Made30
Official-stats conventions: rushing includes sacks as negative attempts (NCAA), so Total Offense = rush + pass. Red-zone Score % counts touchdowns and field goals per trip.
Compare to any opponent →Find similar matchups →Team identity →Situational splits →