Fourth Down Data
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USU

Utah State

AggiesBalanced
Pac-12 Conference6-7#103 (-4.39)

Grades

Percentile grades against every FBS team this season — 99 is best. Curved so an average team reads C, not F.

24· DOverall
Offense
53· CRating
69· CPer play
40· CConsistency
73· BBig plays
Defense
12· FRating
32· DPer play
35· DConsistency
Situational
86· BRed-zone O
31· DRed-zone D
74· B3rd down O
22· D3rd down D
How grades work →

Analytical Fingerprint

SS-native team profile — opponent-adjusted and garbage-filtered EPA, success, and explosiveness.

Opp-Adj Offense
+0.011
Opp-Adj Defense
-0.063
higher = better
Offensive EPA/play
+0.060
Defensive EPA/play
+0.047
lower = better
Off Success Rate
45.6%
Def Success Rate
47.1%
allowed · lower = better
Explosive Rate
25.2%
pass EPA > 1.0 · rush > 0.8
Explosive Allowed
23.7%
lower = better
Net EPA/play
+0.013
net · higher = better
Recent EPA Trend
-0.084
last 3 weeks
Points / Drive
2.26

Special Teams

Opponent-adjusted special-teams component of the Final Rating, in expected points per game — positive = better. The four units sum to the net.

Net ST Rating
-0.29
expected pts/game
Kicking
-0.45
own kicking game
Kick Defense
+0.36
vs opponent kicks
Returns
-0.09
own return game
Return Defense
-0.11
vs opponent returns

Performance vs Perception

Our opponent-adjusted model rank vs. how others rate this team. Descriptive — where the model and the consensus disagree.

Model Rank
#103
opponent-adjusted strength
AP Poll
NR
—
Market (Vegas)
#65
market 38 higher
Recruiting Rank
#76
recruiting 27 spots higher
0 blue-chip recruits

Peer Context

Where Utah State ranks among all FBS teams in 2023 (percentile).

Opp-adjusted offense
56th
Opp-adjusted defense
21th
Offensive EPA/play
69th
Defensive EPA/play
31th
Offensive success rate
41th
Explosiveness
73th
Defensive havoc
46th
Points per drive
57th

Historical Fingerprint

Most statistically similar team-seasons, 2017–2025, by the same 44-feature profile The Archive uses. Descriptive context, not a forecast.

1West Virginia2017OA +0.130 / +0.011similar: pass defense, turnover rate, offensive success rate4532West Virginia2022OA +0.016 / -0.049similar: run defense, passing offense, defensive success rate3713Eastern Michigan2022OA +0.042 / -0.141similar: run defense, offensive EPA, havoc rate3684Arizona2019OA -0.007 / -0.040similar: offensive EPA, defensive EPA, offensive success rate3675California2023OA -0.024 / -0.003similar: pass defense, defensive success rate, TD drive rate363

2023 Schedule & Results

13 games

WkOpponentScoreW/LSpreadATSTotalO/U
1@ Iowa14-24L+23.5W43.5U
2vs Idaho State78-28W+9.0L46.5O
3@ Air Force21-39L----
4vs James Madison38-45L+5.5L52.5O
5@ UConn34-33W-5.5L51O
6vs Colorado State44-24W+6.0W57.5O
7vs Fresno State32-37L----
8@ San José State21-42L+4.0L66.5U
10@ San Diego State32-24W-2.5W57U
11vs Nevada41-24W-16.5W56O
12vs Boise State10-45L+3.0L64.5U
13@ New Mexico44-41W----
17vs Georgia State22-45L-2.5L59O

Betting Profile

ATS Record
6-7
46.2%
O/U Record
9-4
69.2%
Straight Up
6-7
46.2%
Home ATS4-3
Away ATS2-4
Favorite ATS3-3
Underdog ATS3-4
Last 5 ATS
WWLLL
Full ATS log & splits →
Graded against consensus market lines (median across multiple sportsbooks). Games the market never lined — mostly early-season non-FBS matchups — are excluded from ATS and O/U records; individual games may grade differently than closing-line sources.

Situational Profile

Situational EPA percentile across 8 phases (the larger the shape, the more dominant). Within-FBS ranks.

Pass Off47thRush Off78thRed Zone Off87th3rd Down Off75thPass Def39thRush Def26thRed Zone Def31th3rd Down Def22th
SituationOFF EPAOFF RankDEF EPADEF Rank
Overall+0.05770th+0.05627th
Red Zone+0.19487th+0.04931th
Third Down+0.30775th+0.30622th
No Garbage Time+0.07174th+0.05327th
First Half+0.03857th+0.08721th
Second Half+0.07577th+0.02341th
Early Downs+0.03376th+0.03719th
Passing Downs+0.05047th+0.05839th
Standard Downs+0.06178th+0.05526th
Goal to Go-0.05434th+0.12635th

Style & Tendencies

Pass 46.8%Rush 53.2%
Havoc/Game
14.1
Havoc Rate
18.0%
TO Margin
-0.4
Explosive/G
15.1
Yards/Game
438.6
Pts/Drive
2.26
3rd Down%
36.4%
3&Out%
20.6%

Team Statistics

2023 season totals across 13 games — Utah State vs. the combined line of every opponent in those games.
StatUtah StateOpponents
Scoring
Points431451
Points / Game33.234.7
First Downs
Total284305
Rushing121153
Passing134119
Penalty2933
Rushing
Attempts496548
Yards2,3972,775
Yards / Carry4.85.1
Yards / Game184.4213.5
Touchdowns1831
Passing
Attempts436425
Completions269249
Completion %61.7%58.6%
Yards3,3052,855
Yards / Attempt7.66.7
Touchdowns3527
Interceptions1910
Passer Rating143.15131.28
Total Offense
Plays932973
Yards5,7025,630
Yards / Play6.15.8
Yards / Game438.6433.1
Punt Returns
Returns3016
Yards259228
Average8.614.3
Touchdowns01
Kickoff Returns
Returns1924
Yards375489
Average19.720.4
Touchdowns00
Punting
Punts6267
Yards2,6422,942
Average42.643.9
Interception Returns
Returns1019
Yards263124
Touchdowns30
Fumbles
Fumbles925
Lost610
Penalties
Penalties9795
Yards921859
Yards / Game70.866.1
Time of Possession
Per Game26:5133:22
Third Downs
Attempts184198
Conversions6784
Conversion %36.4%42.4%
Fourth Downs
Attempts3217
Conversions188
Conversion %56.3%47.1%
Red Zone
Trips4563
Scores (TD + FG)3951
Score %86.7%81.0%
Touchdowns2740
TD %60.0%63.5%
Field Goals
Attempts1717
Made1313
Pct76.5%76.5%
PAT Kicking
Attempts5055
Made4854
Pct96.0%98.2%
Two-Point Conversions
Attempts54
Made42
Official-stats conventions: rushing includes sacks as negative attempts (NCAA), so Total Offense = rush + pass. Red-zone Score % counts touchdowns and field goals per trip.
Compare to any opponent →Find similar matchups →Team identity →Situational splits →