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CAL
California
Golden BearsBalancedAtlantic Coast Conference6-7#88 (-2.86)
Grades
Percentile grades against every FBS team this season — 99 is best. Curved so an average team reads C, not F.
35· DOverall
Offense
52· CRating
43· CPer play
50· CConsistency
63· CBig plays
Defense
29· DRating
43· CPer play
33· DConsistency
Situational
83· BRed-zone O
8· FRed-zone D
66· C3rd down O
25· D3rd down D
Analytical Fingerprint
SS-native team profile — opponent-adjusted and garbage-filtered EPA, success, and explosiveness.
Opp-Adj Offense
-0.024
Opp-Adj Defense
-0.003
higher = better
Offensive EPA/play
-0.013
Defensive EPA/play
+0.026
lower = better
Off Success Rate
46.9%
Def Success Rate
47.1%
allowed · lower = better
Explosive Rate
24.7%
pass EPA > 1.0 · rush > 0.8
Explosive Allowed
26.1%
lower = better
Net EPA/play
-0.039
net · higher = better
Recent EPA Trend
-0.133
last 3 weeks
Points / Drive
2.18
Special Teams
Opponent-adjusted special-teams component of the Final Rating, in expected points per game — positive = better. The four units sum to the net.
Net ST Rating
-0.80
expected pts/game
Kicking
-0.55
own kicking game
Kick Defense
-0.24
vs opponent kicks
Returns
-0.00
own return game
Return Defense
-0.02
vs opponent returns
Performance vs Perception
Our opponent-adjusted model rank vs. how others rate this team. Descriptive — where the model and the consensus disagree.
Model Rank
#88
opponent-adjusted strength
AP Poll
NR
—
Market (Vegas)
#98
model 10 higher
Recruiting Rank
#42
recruiting 46 spots higher
9 blue-chip recruits
Peer Context
Where California ranks among all FBS teams in 2023 (percentile).
Opp-adjusted offense37th
Opp-adjusted defense50th
Offensive EPA/play43th
Defensive EPA/play43th
Offensive success rate57th
Explosiveness64th
Defensive havoc36th
Points per drive51th
Historical Fingerprint
Most statistically similar team-seasons, 2017–2025, by the same 44-feature profile The Archive uses. Descriptive context, not a forecast.
1Rice2022OA -0.041 / -0.043similar: turnover rate, offensive EPA, pass defense4132Tulane2021OA +0.011 / -0.020similar: run defense, defensive success rate, rushing offense3793Utah State2023OA +0.011 / -0.063similar: defensive success rate, pass defense, TD drive rate3644Temple2018OA +0.045 / +0.017similar: rushing offense, passing offense, takeaway rate3625Fresno State2019OA -0.044 / -0.036similar: TD drive rate, defensive success rate, defensive EPA361
2023 Schedule & Results
13 games
| Wk | Opponent | Score | W/L | Spread | ATS | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | @ North Texas | 58-21 | W | -6.5 | W | 54 | O |
| 2 | vs Auburn | 10-14 | L | +7.0 | W | 53 | U |
| 3 | vs Idaho | 31-17 | W | -15.5 | L | 52.5 | U |
| 4 | @ Washington | 32-59 | L | +20.5 | L | 59.25 | O |
| 5 | vs Arizona State | 24-21 | W | -12.5 | L | 47.75 | U |
| 6 | vs Oregon State | 40-52 | L | +9.5 | L | 51.5 | O |
| 7 | @ Utah | 14-34 | L | +13.5 | L | 45 | O |
| 9 | vs USC | 49-50 | L | +11.0 | W | 67.5 | O |
| 10 | @ Oregon | 19-63 | L | +24.0 | L | 57.5 | O |
| 11 | vs Washington State | 42-39 | W | -1.5 | W | 58.5 | O |
| 12 | @ Stanford | 27-15 | W | -6.5 | W | 55.5 | U |
| 13 | @ UCLA | 33-7 | W | +9.5 | W | 52 | U |
| 16 | @ Texas Tech | 14-34 | L | +3.5 | L | 58 | U |
Betting Profile
ATS Record
6-7
46.2%
O/U Record
7-6
53.8%
Straight Up
6-7
46.2%
Home ATS3-3
Away ATS3-4
Favorite ATS3-2
Underdog ATS3-5
Last 5 ATS
LWWWL
Graded against consensus market lines (median across multiple sportsbooks). Games the market never lined — mostly early-season non-FBS matchups — are excluded from ATS and O/U records; individual games may grade differently than closing-line sources.
Situational Profile
Situational EPA percentile across 8 phases (the larger the shape, the more dominant). Within-FBS ranks.
| Situation | OFF EPA | OFF Rank | DEF EPA | DEF Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Overall | +0.007 | 49th | +0.016 | 48th |
| Red Zone | +0.161 | 84th | +0.231 | 8th |
| Third Down | +0.273 | 67th | +0.274 | 25th |
| No Garbage Time | -0.017 | 38th | +0.022 | 45th |
| First Half | +0.025 | 53th | +0.060 | 30th |
| Second Half | -0.009 | 44th | -0.036 | 61th |
| Early Downs | -0.049 | 44th | -0.061 | 60th |
| Passing Downs | +0.051 | 48th | +0.143 | 19th |
| Standard Downs | -0.016 | 50th | -0.040 | 59th |
| Goal to Go | +0.069 | 60th | +0.522 | 1th |
Style & Tendencies
Pass 46.6%Rush 53.4%
Havoc/Game
12.8
Havoc Rate
17.3%
TO Margin
0.0
Explosive/G
15.9
Yards/Game
390.9
Pts/Drive
2.18
3rd Down%
38.7%
3&Out%
18.2%
Team Statistics
2023 season totals across 13 games — California vs. the combined line of every opponent in those games.
| Stat | California | Opponents |
|---|---|---|
| Scoring | ||
| Points | 393 | 426 |
| Points / Game | 30.2 | 32.8 |
| First Downs | ||
| Total | 279 | 271 |
| Rushing | 113 | 100 |
| Passing | 132 | 158 |
| Penalty | 34 | 13 |
| Rushing | ||
| Attempts | 497 | 456 |
| Yards | 2,246 | 1,734 |
| Yards / Carry | 4.5 | 3.8 |
| Yards / Game | 172.8 | 133.4 |
| Touchdowns | 26 | 23 |
| Passing | ||
| Attempts | 434 | 486 |
| Completions | 258 | 306 |
| Completion % | 59.4% | 63.0% |
| Yards | 2,836 | 3,649 |
| Yards / Attempt | 6.5 | 7.5 |
| Touchdowns | 22 | 30 |
| Interceptions | 16 | 12 |
| Passer Rating | 123.69 | 141.46 |
| Total Offense | ||
| Plays | 931 | 942 |
| Yards | 5,082 | 5,383 |
| Yards / Play | 5.5 | 5.7 |
| Yards / Game | 390.9 | 414.1 |
| Punt Returns | ||
| Returns | 9 | 20 |
| Yards | 26 | 274 |
| Average | 2.9 | 13.7 |
| Touchdowns | 0 | 1 |
| Kickoff Returns | ||
| Returns | 24 | 44 |
| Yards | 486 | 871 |
| Average | 20.3 | 19.8 |
| Touchdowns | 1 | 0 |
| Punting | ||
| Punts | 52 | 46 |
| Yards | 2,314 | 1,956 |
| Average | 44.5 | 42.5 |
| Interception Returns | ||
| Returns | 12 | 16 |
| Yards | 68 | 215 |
| Touchdowns | 0 | 1 |
| Fumbles | ||
| Fumbles | 24 | 27 |
| Lost | 12 | 16 |
| Penalties | ||
| Penalties | 73 | 84 |
| Yards | 588 | 780 |
| Yards / Game | 45.2 | 60.0 |
| Time of Possession | ||
| Per Game | 28:40 | 31:07 |
| Third Downs | ||
| Attempts | 191 | 195 |
| Conversions | 74 | 81 |
| Conversion % | 38.7% | 41.5% |
| Fourth Downs | ||
| Attempts | 33 | 38 |
| Conversions | 18 | 23 |
| Conversion % | 54.5% | 60.5% |
| Red Zone | ||
| Trips | 53 | 61 |
| Scores (TD + FG) | 42 | 54 |
| Score % | 79.2% | 88.5% |
| Touchdowns | 34 | 43 |
| TD % | 64.2% | 70.5% |
| Field Goals | ||
| Attempts | 18 | 21 |
| Made | 11 | 14 |
| Pct | 61.1% | 66.7% |
| PAT Kicking | ||
| Attempts | 43 | 51 |
| Made | 40 | 50 |
| Pct | 93.0% | 98.0% |
| Two-Point Conversions | ||
| Attempts | 9 | 4 |
| Made | 4 | 2 |
Official-stats conventions: rushing includes sacks as negative attempts (NCAA), so Total Offense = rush + pass. Red-zone Score % counts touchdowns and field goals per trip.