Fourth Down Data
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RICE

Rice

OwlsBalanced
American Conference5-8#114 (-5.96)

Grades

Percentile grades against every FBS team this season — 99 is best. Curved so an average team reads C, not F.

16· DOverall
Offense
45· CRating
48· CPer play
48· CConsistency
65· CBig plays
Defense
18· DRating
30· DPer play
45· CConsistency
Situational
20· DRed-zone O
29· DRed-zone D
38· D3rd down O
25· D3rd down D
How grades work →

Analytical Fingerprint

SS-native team profile — opponent-adjusted and garbage-filtered EPA, success, and explosiveness.

Opp-Adj Offense
-0.041
Opp-Adj Defense
-0.043
higher = better
Offensive EPA/play
-0.016
Defensive EPA/play
+0.031
lower = better
Off Success Rate
44.5%
Def Success Rate
45.1%
allowed · lower = better
Explosive Rate
25.0%
pass EPA > 1.0 · rush > 0.8
Explosive Allowed
28.9%
lower = better
Net EPA/play
-0.046
net · higher = better
Recent EPA Trend
-0.082
last 3 weeks
Points / Drive
2.23

Special Teams

Opponent-adjusted special-teams component of the Final Rating, in expected points per game — positive = better. The four units sum to the net.

Net ST Rating
-2.73
expected pts/game
Kicking
-0.42
own kicking game
Kick Defense
-0.40
vs opponent kicks
Returns
-1.34
own return game
Return Defense
-0.57
vs opponent returns

Performance vs Perception

Our opponent-adjusted model rank vs. how others rate this team. Descriptive — where the model and the consensus disagree.

Model Rank
#114
opponent-adjusted strength
AP Poll
NR
—
Market (Vegas)
#107
market 7 higher
Recruiting Rank
#75
recruiting 39 spots higher
0 blue-chip recruits

Peer Context

Where Rice ranks among all FBS teams in 2022 (percentile).

Opp-adjusted offense
38th
Opp-adjusted defense
30th
Offensive EPA/play
48th
Defensive EPA/play
30th
Offensive success rate
37th
Explosiveness
65th
Defensive havoc
30th
Points per drive
53th

Historical Fingerprint

Most statistically similar team-seasons, 2017–2025, by the same 44-feature profile The Archive uses. Descriptive context, not a forecast.

1California2023OA -0.024 / -0.003similar: turnover rate, offensive EPA, pass defense4132Hawai'i2021OA -0.081 / -0.044similar: passing offense, rushing offense, offensive success rate4003Louisiana Tech2021OA -0.043 / -0.064similar: pass defense, defensive EPA, offensive success rate3954Tulane2021OA +0.011 / -0.020similar: TD drive rate, defensive EPA, passing offense3845Coastal Carolina2024OA -0.004 / -0.025similar: havoc rate, offensive EPA, defensive EPA358

2022 Schedule & Results

13 games

WkOpponentScoreW/LSpreadATSTotalO/U
1@ USC14-66L+32.5L61.5O
2vs McNeese State52-10W-9.5W53.5O
3vs Louisiana33-21W+11.0W50.5O
4@ Houston27-34L+17.5W51.5O
5vs UAB28-24W+10.0W51.5O
7@ Florida Atlantic14-17L+4.0W56U
8@ Louisiana Tech42-41W-3.0L57.5O
9vs Charlotte23-56L-3.5W49O
10vs UTEP37-30W----
11@ Western Kentucky10-45L+13.0L61.5U
12vs UTSA7-41L+13.0L60.5U
13@ North Texas17-21L+14.0W60.5U
16@ Southern Miss24-38L+6.5L45.5O

Betting Profile

ATS Record
7-6
53.8%
O/U Record
9-4
69.2%
Straight Up
5-8
38.5%
Home ATS4-2
Away ATS3-4
Favorite ATS2-2
Underdog ATS5-4
Last 5 ATS
WLLWL
Full ATS log & splits →
Graded against consensus market lines (median across multiple sportsbooks). Games the market never lined — mostly early-season non-FBS matchups — are excluded from ATS and O/U records; individual games may grade differently than closing-line sources.

Situational Profile

Situational EPA percentile across 8 phases (the larger the shape, the more dominant). Within-FBS ranks.

Pass Off30thRush Off44thRed Zone Off20th3rd Down Off39thPass Def32thRush Def30thRed Zone Def29th3rd Down Def25th
SituationOFF EPAOFF RankDEF EPADEF Rank
Overall-0.05139th+0.02729th
Red Zone-0.16720th+0.09029th
Third Down+0.01239th+0.15825th
No Garbage Time-0.01450th+0.03329th
First Half-0.07136th+0.00243th
Second Half-0.03045th+0.05121th
Early Downs-0.00156th+0.06416th
Passing Downs-0.09530th+0.04332th
Standard Downs-0.02744th+0.01930th
Goal to Go-0.00954th+0.19317th

Style & Tendencies

Pass 46.8%Rush 53.2%
Havoc/Game
10.4
Havoc Rate
16.5%
TO Margin
-1.1
Explosive/G
14.1
Yards/Game
374.2
Pts/Drive
2.23
3rd Down%
41.0%
3&Out%
17.1%

Team Statistics

2022 season totals across 13 games — Rice vs. the combined line of every opponent in those games.
StatRiceOpponents
Scoring
Points328444
Points / Game25.234.2
First Downs
Total262246
Rushing110106
Passing130113
Penalty2227
Rushing
Attempts459439
Yards1,8372,363
Yards / Carry4.05.4
Yards / Game141.3181.8
Touchdowns1721
Passing
Attempts403345
Completions233210
Completion %57.8%60.9%
Yards3,0282,712
Yards / Attempt7.57.9
Touchdowns2329
Interceptions208
Passer Rating129.84150.00
Total Offense
Plays862784
Yards4,8655,075
Yards / Play5.66.5
Yards / Game374.2390.4
Punt Returns
Returns1818
Yards161152
Average8.98.4
Touchdowns01
Kickoff Returns
Returns2427
Yards418616
Average17.422.8
Touchdowns00
Punting
Punts4948
Yards2,0072,018
Average41.042.0
Interception Returns
Returns820
Yards154271
Touchdowns14
Fumbles
Fumbles2012
Lost1210
Penalties
Penalties7882
Yards683741
Yards / Game52.557.0
Time of Possession
Per Game32:4927:07
Third Downs
Attempts173160
Conversions7166
Conversion %41.0%41.3%
Fourth Downs
Attempts2718
Conversions139
Conversion %48.1%50.0%
Red Zone
Trips4652
Scores (TD + FG)3746
Score %80.4%88.5%
Touchdowns2636
TD %56.5%69.2%
Field Goals
Attempts1719
Made1215
Pct70.6%78.9%
PAT Kicking
Attempts3855
Made3855
Pct100.0%100.0%
Two-Point Conversions
Attempts42
Made11
Official-stats conventions: rushing includes sacks as negative attempts (NCAA), so Total Offense = rush + pass. Red-zone Score % counts touchdowns and field goals per trip.
Compare to any opponent →Find similar matchups →Team identity →Situational splits →