Fourth Down Data
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TULN

Tulane

Green WaveBalanced
American Conference2-10#97 (-3.56)

Grades

Percentile grades against every FBS team this season — 99 is best. Curved so an average team reads C, not F.

28· DOverall
Offense
45· CRating
37· DPer play
15· DConsistency
63· CBig plays
Defense
19· DRating
25· DPer play
43· CConsistency
Situational
45· CRed-zone O
7· FRed-zone D
70· B3rd down O
17· D3rd down D
How grades work →

Analytical Fingerprint

SS-native team profile — opponent-adjusted and garbage-filtered EPA, success, and explosiveness.

Opp-Adj Offense
+0.011
Opp-Adj Defense
-0.020
higher = better
Offensive EPA/play
-0.030
Defensive EPA/play
+0.053
lower = better
Off Success Rate
42.9%
Def Success Rate
46.9%
allowed · lower = better
Explosive Rate
25.1%
pass EPA > 1.0 · rush > 0.8
Explosive Allowed
24.9%
lower = better
Net EPA/play
-0.083
net · higher = better
Recent EPA Trend
-0.009
last 3 weeks
Points / Drive
1.98

Special Teams

Opponent-adjusted special-teams component of the Final Rating, in expected points per game — positive = better. The four units sum to the net.

Net ST Rating
-0.19
expected pts/game
Kicking
+0.12
own kicking game
Kick Defense
-0.01
vs opponent kicks
Returns
-0.49
own return game
Return Defense
+0.20
vs opponent returns

Performance vs Perception

Our opponent-adjusted model rank vs. how others rate this team. Descriptive — where the model and the consensus disagree.

Model Rank
#97
opponent-adjusted strength
AP Poll
NR
—
Market (Vegas)
#100
model 3 higher
Recruiting Rank
#72
recruiting 25 spots higher
0 blue-chip recruits

Peer Context

Where Tulane ranks among all FBS teams in 2021 (percentile).

Opp-adjusted offense
51th
Opp-adjusted defense
38th
Offensive EPA/play
38th
Defensive EPA/play
25th
Offensive success rate
17th
Explosiveness
63th
Defensive havoc
50th
Points per drive
34th

Historical Fingerprint

Most statistically similar team-seasons, 2017–2025, by the same 44-feature profile The Archive uses. Descriptive context, not a forecast.

1Middle Tennessee2023OA -0.089 / -0.016similar: offensive success rate, havoc rate, turnover rate3852Rice2022OA -0.041 / -0.043similar: TD drive rate, defensive EPA, passing offense3843California2023OA -0.024 / -0.003similar: run defense, defensive success rate, offensive EPA3814Old Dominion2024OA +0.012 / -0.018similar: rushing offense, TD drive rate, defensive EPA3755Stanford2026OA -0.036 / -0.136similar: passing offense, offensive EPA, run defense353

2021 Schedule & Results

12 games

WkOpponentScoreW/LSpreadATSTotalO/U
1@ Oklahoma35-40L+31.5W68.5O
2vs Morgan State69-20W-48.0W58.25O
3@ Ole Miss21-61L+14.0L76.5O
4vs UAB21-28L-3.0L54.5U
5@ East Carolina29-52L+6.5L60O
6vs Houston22-40L----
8@ SMU26-55L----
9vs Cincinnati12-31L+26.0W62U
10@ UCF10-14L+12.8W59.25U
11vs Tulsa13-20L+3.0L56U
12vs South Florida45-14W-5.5W60.5U
13@ Memphis28-33L+6.0W57.5O

Betting Profile

ATS Record
6-6
50.0%
O/U Record
7-5
58.3%
Straight Up
2-10
16.7%
Home ATS3-3
Away ATS3-3
Favorite ATS2-2
Underdog ATS4-4
Last 5 ATS
WWLWW
Full ATS log & splits →
Graded against consensus market lines (median across multiple sportsbooks). Games the market never lined — mostly early-season non-FBS matchups — are excluded from ATS and O/U records; individual games may grade differently than closing-line sources.

Situational Profile

Situational EPA percentile across 8 phases (the larger the shape, the more dominant). Within-FBS ranks.

Pass Off29thRush Off56thRed Zone Off45th3rd Down Off71thPass Def5thRush Def55thRed Zone Def7th3rd Down Def17th
SituationOFF EPAOFF RankDEF EPADEF Rank
Overall-0.01543th+0.06122th
Red Zone-0.05145th+0.2087th
Third Down+0.17771th+0.25717th
No Garbage Time-0.00845th+0.06025th
First Half+0.05265th+0.1369th
Second Half-0.07222th-0.03156th
Early Downs-0.02841th-0.03760th
Passing Downs-0.07729th+0.2025th
Standard Downs+0.02456th-0.01955th
Goal to Go+0.39895th-0.02753th

Style & Tendencies

Pass 45.7%Rush 54.3%
Havoc/Game
14.3
Havoc Rate
18.6%
TO Margin
-0.8
Explosive/G
14.4
Yards/Game
386.5
Pts/Drive
1.98
3rd Down%
36.1%
3&Out%
21.9%

Team Statistics

2021 season totals across 12 games — Tulane vs. the combined line of every opponent in those games.
StatTulaneOpponents
Scoring
Points331408
Points / Game27.634.0
First Downs
Total234272
Rushing106107
Passing110144
Penalty1821
Rushing
Attempts447484
Yards1,9771,901
Yards / Carry4.43.9
Yards / Game164.8158.4
Touchdowns1925
Passing
Attempts376404
Completions213268
Completion %56.6%66.3%
Yards2,6613,255
Yards / Attempt7.18.1
Touchdowns2328
Interceptions1310
Passer Rating129.37151.94
Total Offense
Plays823888
Yards4,6385,156
Yards / Play5.65.8
Yards / Game386.5429.7
Punt Returns
Returns166
Yards14437
Average9.06.2
Touchdowns00
Kickoff Returns
Returns3019
Yards607425
Average20.222.4
Touchdowns00
Punting
Punts5249
Yards2,4241,940
Average46.639.6
Interception Returns
Returns1013
Yards15662
Touchdowns10
Fumbles
Fumbles2114
Lost126
Penalties
Penalties7263
Yards612578
Yards / Game51.048.2
Time of Possession
Per Game29:0831:44
Third Downs
Attempts169185
Conversions6174
Conversion %36.1%40.0%
Fourth Downs
Attempts3829
Conversions1923
Conversion %50.0%79.3%
Red Zone
Trips4652
Scores (TD + FG)3347
Score %71.7%90.4%
Touchdowns2839
TD %60.9%75.0%
Field Goals
Attempts1421
Made714
Pct50.0%66.7%
PAT Kicking
Attempts3649
Made3648
Pct100.0%98.0%
Two-Point Conversions
Attempts83
Made40
Official-stats conventions: rushing includes sacks as negative attempts (NCAA), so Total Offense = rush + pass. Red-zone Score % counts touchdowns and field goals per trip.
Compare to any opponent →Find similar matchups →Team identity →Situational splits →