Fourth Down Data
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ODU

Old Dominion

MonarchsRun-Heavy
Sun Belt Conference5-7#72 (+0.32)

Grades

Percentile grades against every FBS team this season — 99 is best. Curved so an average team reads C, not F.

47· COverall
Offense
51· CRating
57· CPer play
34· DConsistency
78· BBig plays
Defense
56· CRating
28· DPer play
73· BConsistency
Situational
81· BRed-zone O
52· CRed-zone D
61· C3rd down O
7· F3rd down D
How grades work →

Analytical Fingerprint

SS-native team profile — opponent-adjusted and garbage-filtered EPA, success, and explosiveness.

Opp-Adj Offense
+0.012
Opp-Adj Defense
-0.018
higher = better
Offensive EPA/play
+0.028
Defensive EPA/play
+0.037
lower = better
Off Success Rate
44.7%
Def Success Rate
43.7%
allowed · lower = better
Explosive Rate
25.4%
pass EPA > 1.0 · rush > 0.8
Explosive Allowed
23.4%
lower = better
Net EPA/play
-0.009
net · higher = better
Recent EPA Trend
+0.116
last 3 weeks
Points / Drive
2.17

Special Teams

Opponent-adjusted special-teams component of the Final Rating, in expected points per game — positive = better. The four units sum to the net.

Net ST Rating
+0.02
expected pts/game
Kicking
+0.04
own kicking game
Kick Defense
+0.06
vs opponent kicks
Returns
-0.16
own return game
Return Defense
+0.09
vs opponent returns

Performance vs Perception

Our opponent-adjusted model rank vs. how others rate this team. Descriptive — where the model and the consensus disagree.

Model Rank
#72
opponent-adjusted strength
AP Poll
NR
—
Market (Vegas)
#104
model 32 higher
Recruiting Rank
#80
model 8 spots higher
0 blue-chip recruits

Peer Context

Where Old Dominion ranks among all FBS teams in 2024 (percentile).

Opp-adjusted offense
60th
Opp-adjusted defense
29th
Offensive EPA/play
57th
Defensive EPA/play
28th
Offensive success rate
33th
Explosiveness
79th
Defensive havoc
46th
Points per drive
46th

Historical Fingerprint

Most statistically similar team-seasons, 2017–2025, by the same 44-feature profile The Archive uses. Descriptive context, not a forecast.

1Florida State2026OA -0.001 / -0.100similar: rushing offense, passing offense, offensive success rate3872Tulane2021OA +0.011 / -0.020similar: rushing offense, TD drive rate, defensive EPA3753Ole Miss2019OA +0.008 / +0.019similar: havoc rate, offensive success rate, offensive EPA3724South Alabama2025OA +0.027 / -0.099similar: passing offense, pass defense, defensive EPA3585Texas2021OA -0.054 / -0.022similar: offensive EPA, pass defense, turnover rate353

2024 Schedule & Results

12 games

WkOpponentScoreW/LSpreadATSTotalO/U
1@ South Carolina19-23L+21.0W52U
2vs East Carolina14-20L-2.0L49.25U
3vs Virginia Tech17-37L+14.5L48O
5@ Bowling Green30-27W+10.0W51.5O
6@ Coastal Carolina37-45L+5.5L52.5O
7@ Georgia State21-14W+1.5W54.5U
8vs Texas State24-14W+10.0W61.5U
9vs Georgia Southern47-19W----
10@ App State20-28L-2.5L60.5U
12vs James Madison32-35L+3.0P51.5O
13vs Marshall35-42L-2.5L52O
14@ Arkansas State40-32W-4.0W58.5O

Betting Profile

ATS Record
6-5-1
54.5%
O/U Record
7-5
58.3%
Straight Up
5-7
41.7%
Home ATS2-3
Away ATS4-2
Favorite ATS2-3
Underdog ATS4-2
Last 5 ATS
WLPLW
Full ATS log & splits →
Graded against consensus market lines (median across multiple sportsbooks). Games the market never lined — mostly early-season non-FBS matchups — are excluded from ATS and O/U records; individual games may grade differently than closing-line sources.

Situational Profile

Situational EPA percentile across 8 phases (the larger the shape, the more dominant). Within-FBS ranks.

Pass Off43thRush Off69thRed Zone Off81th3rd Down Off61thPass Def13thRush Def51thRed Zone Def53th3rd Down Def7th
SituationOFF EPAOFF RankDEF EPADEF Rank
Overall+0.03058th+0.04827th
Red Zone+0.17181th-0.01753th
Third Down+0.14661th+0.3567th
No Garbage Time+0.02860th+0.03728th
First Half+0.03162th-0.01349th
Second Half+0.02953th+0.11213th
Early Downs+0.03069th-0.06163th
Passing Downs+0.00343th+0.15413th
Standard Downs+0.04669th-0.01551th
Goal to Go+0.23681th-0.27687th

Style & Tendencies

Pass 40.9%Rush 59.1%
Havoc/Game
13.1
Havoc Rate
17.5%
TO Margin
-0.3
Explosive/G
16.6
Yards/Game
402.7
Pts/Drive
2.17
3rd Down%
43.1%
3&Out%
23.8%

Team Statistics

2024 season totals across 12 games — Old Dominion vs. the combined line of every opponent in those games.
StatOld DominionOpponents
Scoring
Points336336
Points / Game28.028.0
First Downs
Total236256
Rushing116116
Passing106118
Penalty1422
Rushing
Attempts481485
Yards2,5172,071
Yards / Carry5.24.3
Yards / Game209.8172.6
Touchdowns2718
Passing
Attempts333374
Completions195228
Completion %58.6%61.0%
Yards2,3152,854
Yards / Attempt7.07.6
Touchdowns1723
Interceptions912
Passer Rating128.40138.94
Total Offense
Plays814859
Yards4,8324,925
Yards / Play5.95.7
Yards / Game402.7410.4
Punt Returns
Returns1918
Yards10771
Average5.63.9
Touchdowns00
Kickoff Returns
Returns2237
Yards334722
Average15.219.5
Touchdowns00
Punting
Punts6857
Yards2,7722,341
Average40.841.1
Interception Returns
Returns129
Yards14329
Touchdowns00
Fumbles
Fumbles2118
Lost115
Penalties
Penalties7471
Yards650590
Yards / Game54.249.2
Time of Possession
Per Game27:6032:00
Third Downs
Attempts174182
Conversions7579
Conversion %43.1%43.4%
Fourth Downs
Attempts1116
Conversions78
Conversion %63.6%50.0%
Red Zone
Trips4039
Scores (TD + FG)3832
Score %95.0%82.1%
Touchdowns3022
TD %75.0%56.4%
Field Goals
Attempts1221
Made1114
Pct91.7%66.7%
PAT Kicking
Attempts4237
Made3734
Pct88.1%91.9%
Two-Point Conversions
Attempts25
Made14
Official-stats conventions: rushing includes sacks as negative attempts (NCAA), so Total Offense = rush + pass. Red-zone Score % counts touchdowns and field goals per trip.
Compare to any opponent →Find similar matchups →Team identity →Situational splits →