Fourth Down Data
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TEX

Texas

LonghornsBalanced
Southeastern Conference5-7#53 (+2.49)

Grades

Percentile grades against every FBS team this season — 99 is best. Curved so an average team reads C, not F.

60· COverall
Offense
68· CRating
55· CPer play
49· CConsistency
41· CBig plays
Defense
38· DRating
19· DPer play
30· DConsistency
Situational
92· A-Red-zone O
25· DRed-zone D
61· C3rd down O
16· D3rd down D
How grades work →

Analytical Fingerprint

SS-native team profile — opponent-adjusted and garbage-filtered EPA, success, and explosiveness.

Opp-Adj Offense
-0.054
Opp-Adj Defense
-0.022
higher = better
Offensive EPA/play
+0.022
Defensive EPA/play
+0.081
lower = better
Off Success Rate
47.1%
Def Success Rate
47.7%
allowed · lower = better
Explosive Rate
23.6%
pass EPA > 1.0 · rush > 0.8
Explosive Allowed
25.3%
lower = better
Net EPA/play
-0.059
net · higher = better
Recent EPA Trend
+0.076
last 3 weeks
Points / Drive
2.59

Special Teams

Opponent-adjusted special-teams component of the Final Rating, in expected points per game — positive = better. The four units sum to the net.

Net ST Rating
+1.64
expected pts/game
Kicking
+0.84
own kicking game
Kick Defense
+0.29
vs opponent kicks
Returns
-0.07
own return game
Return Defense
+0.58
vs opponent returns

Performance vs Perception

Our opponent-adjusted model rank vs. how others rate this team. Descriptive — where the model and the consensus disagree.

Model Rank
#53
opponent-adjusted strength
AP Poll
NR
—
Market (Vegas)
#31
market 22 higher
Recruiting Rank
#5
recruiting 48 spots higher
58 blue-chip recruits

Peer Context

Where Texas ranks among all FBS teams in 2021 (percentile).

Opp-adjusted offense
28th
Opp-adjusted defense
38th
Offensive EPA/play
56th
Defensive EPA/play
19th
Offensive success rate
60th
Explosiveness
41th
Defensive havoc
21th
Points per drive
78th

Historical Fingerprint

Most statistically similar team-seasons, 2017–2025, by the same 44-feature profile The Archive uses. Descriptive context, not a forecast.

1Middle Tennessee2019OA -0.023 / -0.088similar: offensive EPA, offensive success rate, defensive success rate4052Arkansas2017OA -0.037 / -0.079similar: offensive success rate, havoc rate, passing offense3823Toledo2019OA -0.001 / -0.123similar: rushing offense, offensive EPA, turnover rate3804Eastern Michigan2025OA +0.012 / -0.169similar: passing offense, offensive EPA, turnover rate3685Oregon State2020OA +0.009 / -0.048similar: TD drive rate, takeaway rate, offensive EPA359

2021 Schedule & Results

12 games

WkOpponentScoreW/LSpreadATSTotalO/U
1vs Louisiana38-18W-8.0W58U
2@ Arkansas21-40L-6.0L58.5O
3vs Rice58-0W-36.5W53O
4vs Texas Tech70-35W-9.0W62.5O
5@ TCU32-27W-5.0P65U
6vs Oklahoma48-55L+3.5L63.5O
7vs Oklahoma State24-32L-5.5L59.5U
9@ Baylor24-31L+3.0L61.5U
10@ Iowa State7-30L+6.5L60.5U
11vs Kansas56-57L-30.5L61.5O
12@ West Virginia23-31L+2.5L56.5U
13vs Kansas State22-17W----

Betting Profile

ATS Record
4-7-1
36.4%
O/U Record
5-7
41.7%
Straight Up
5-7
41.7%
Home ATS4-3
Away ATS0-4
Favorite ATS4-3
Underdog ATS0-4
Last 5 ATS
LLLWL
Full ATS log & splits →
Graded against consensus market lines (median across multiple sportsbooks). Games the market never lined — mostly early-season non-FBS matchups — are excluded from ATS and O/U records; individual games may grade differently than closing-line sources.

Situational Profile

Situational EPA percentile across 8 phases (the larger the shape, the more dominant). Within-FBS ranks.

Pass Off42thRush Off83thRed Zone Off93th3rd Down Off62thPass Def21thRush Def14thRed Zone Def26th3rd Down Def16th
SituationOFF EPAOFF RankDEF EPADEF Rank
Overall+0.05570th+0.09414th
Red Zone+0.18393th+0.08226th
Third Down+0.13862th+0.25916th
No Garbage Time+0.03257th+0.07320th
First Half+0.02654th+0.00744th
Second Half+0.08485th+0.1864th
Early Downs+0.06980th+0.07514th
Passing Downs-0.02142th+0.09921th
Standard Downs+0.09283th+0.09214th
Goal to Go+0.32692th+0.02046th

Style & Tendencies

Pass 43.1%Rush 56.9%
Havoc/Game
11.4
Havoc Rate
15.7%
TO Margin
-0.3
Explosive/G
13.8
Yards/Game
424.7
Pts/Drive
2.59
3rd Down%
44.0%
3&Out%
28.4%

Team Statistics

2021 season totals across 12 games — Texas vs. the combined line of every opponent in those games.
StatTexasOpponents
Scoring
Points423373
Points / Game35.331.1
First Downs
Total247261
Rushing120117
Passing114127
Penalty1317
Rushing
Attempts457470
Yards2,3912,419
Yards / Carry5.25.1
Yards / Game199.3201.6
Touchdowns2526
Passing
Attempts346377
Completions217255
Completion %62.7%67.6%
Yards2,7052,688
Yards / Attempt7.87.1
Touchdowns2916
Interceptions107
Passer Rating150.27137.82
Total Offense
Plays803847
Yards5,0965,107
Yards / Play6.36.0
Yards / Game424.7425.6
Punt Returns
Returns1814
Yards19640
Average10.92.9
Touchdowns00
Kickoff Returns
Returns2619
Yards504498
Average19.426.2
Touchdowns00
Punting
Punts4950
Yards2,2362,055
Average45.641.1
Interception Returns
Returns710
Yards91197
Touchdowns12
Fumbles
Fumbles1411
Lost77
Penalties
Penalties6953
Yards579442
Yards / Game48.336.8
Time of Possession
Per Game28:0631:54
Third Downs
Attempts159170
Conversions7072
Conversion %44.0%42.4%
Fourth Downs
Attempts2019
Conversions911
Conversion %45.0%57.9%
Red Zone
Trips4751
Scores (TD + FG)4444
Score %93.6%86.3%
Touchdowns3529
TD %74.5%56.9%
Field Goals
Attempts1525
Made1322
Pct86.7%88.0%
PAT Kicking
Attempts5340
Made5239
Pct98.1%97.5%
Two-Point Conversions
Attempts24
Made02
Official-stats conventions: rushing includes sacks as negative attempts (NCAA), so Total Offense = rush + pass. Red-zone Score % counts touchdowns and field goals per trip.
Compare to any opponent →Find similar matchups →Team identity →Situational splits →