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MTSU
Middle Tennessee
Blue RaidersBalancedConference USA4-8#115 (-11.83)
Grades
Percentile grades against every FBS team this season — 99 is best. Curved so an average team reads C, not F.
15· DOverall
Offense
31· DRating
56· CPer play
52· CConsistency
58· CBig plays
Defense
14· FRating
35· DPer play
17· DConsistency
Situational
92· A-Red-zone O
85· BRed-zone D
7· F3rd down O
37· D3rd down D
Analytical Fingerprint
SS-native team profile — opponent-adjusted and garbage-filtered EPA, success, and explosiveness.
Opp-Adj Offense
-0.023
Opp-Adj Defense
-0.088
higher = better
Offensive EPA/play
+0.022
Defensive EPA/play
+0.038
lower = better
Off Success Rate
46.8%
Def Success Rate
48.8%
allowed · lower = better
Explosive Rate
24.3%
pass EPA > 1.0 · rush > 0.8
Explosive Allowed
24.5%
lower = better
Net EPA/play
-0.016
net · higher = better
Recent EPA Trend
+0.013
last 3 weeks
Points / Drive
2.05
Special Teams
Opponent-adjusted special-teams component of the Final Rating, in expected points per game — positive = better. The four units sum to the net.
Net ST Rating
-1.54
expected pts/game
Kicking
-0.49
own kicking game
Kick Defense
-0.79
vs opponent kicks
Returns
-0.44
own return game
Return Defense
+0.17
vs opponent returns
Performance vs Perception
Our opponent-adjusted model rank vs. how others rate this team. Descriptive — where the model and the consensus disagree.
Model Rank
#115
opponent-adjusted strength
AP Poll
NR
—
Market (Vegas)
—
unavailable
Recruiting Rank
#75
recruiting 40 spots higher
0 blue-chip recruits
Peer Context
Where Middle Tennessee ranks among all FBS teams in 2019 (percentile).
Opp-adjusted offense41th
Opp-adjusted defense18th
Offensive EPA/play57th
Defensive EPA/play36th
Offensive success rate57th
Explosiveness59th
Defensive havoc10th
Points per drive42th
Historical Fingerprint
Most statistically similar team-seasons, 2017–2025, by the same 44-feature profile The Archive uses. Descriptive context, not a forecast.
1Texas2021OA -0.054 / -0.022similar: offensive EPA, offensive success rate, defensive success rate4052Oregon State2020OA +0.009 / -0.048similar: pass defense, havoc rate, offensive EPA3703South Carolina2020OA +0.001 / -0.037similar: offensive EPA, passing offense, turnover rate3644Louisiana2017OA -0.058 / -0.169similar: rushing offense, turnover rate, havoc rate3505Texas State2020OA -0.012 / -0.051similar: takeaway rate, turnover rate, passing offense350
2019 Schedule & Results
12 games
| Wk | Opponent | Score | W/L | Spread | ATS | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | @ Michigan | 21-40 | L | +36.0 | W | 56.5 | O |
| 2 | vs Tennessee State | 45-26 | W | -25.5 | L | 56.5 | O |
| 3 | vs Duke | 18-41 | L | +6.5 | L | 51 | O |
| 5 | @ Iowa | 3-48 | L | +23.5 | L | 51 | P |
| 6 | vs Marshall | 24-13 | W | +5.0 | W | 53.5 | U |
| 7 | @ Florida Atlantic | 13-28 | L | +12.0 | L | 63.5 | U |
| 8 | @ North Texas | 30-33 | L | +7.0 | W | 59.5 | O |
| 9 | vs Florida International | 50-17 | W | +1.0 | W | 58.5 | O |
| 10 | @ Charlotte | 20-34 | L | -5.0 | L | 65 | U |
| 12 | vs Rice | 28-31 | L | -13.5 | L | 45.5 | O |
| 13 | vs Old Dominion | 38-17 | W | -13.5 | W | 47 | O |
| 14 | @ Western Kentucky | 26-31 | L | +10.0 | W | 45.5 | O |
Betting Profile
ATS Record
6-6
50.0%
O/U Record
8-3-1
72.7%
Straight Up
4-8
33.3%
Home ATS3-3
Away ATS3-3
Favorite ATS1-3
Underdog ATS5-3
Last 5 ATS
WLLWW
Graded against consensus market lines (median across multiple sportsbooks). Games the market never lined — mostly early-season non-FBS matchups — are excluded from ATS and O/U records; individual games may grade differently than closing-line sources.
Situational Profile
Situational EPA percentile across 8 phases (the larger the shape, the more dominant). Within-FBS ranks.
| Situation | OFF EPA | OFF Rank | DEF EPA | DEF Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Overall | +0.051 | 67th | +0.040 | 34th |
| Red Zone | +0.266 | 93th | -0.213 | 86th |
| Third Down | -0.228 | 7th | +0.077 | 37th |
| No Garbage Time | +0.028 | 57th | +0.056 | 30th |
| First Half | +0.008 | 50th | +0.100 | 19th |
| Second Half | +0.094 | 81th | -0.027 | 62th |
| Early Downs | +0.115 | 90th | +0.047 | 25th |
| Passing Downs | -0.085 | 29th | -0.042 | 58th |
| Standard Downs | +0.118 | 90th | +0.078 | 16th |
| Goal to Go | +0.228 | 83th | -0.076 | 59th |
Style & Tendencies
Pass 47.6%Rush 52.4%
Havoc/Game
11.1
Havoc Rate
14.6%
TO Margin
+0.3
Explosive/G
14.0
Yards/Game
408.3
Pts/Drive
2.05
3rd Down%
35.1%
3&Out%
24.6%
Team Statistics
2019 season totals across 12 games — Middle Tennessee vs. the combined line of every opponent in those games.
| Stat | Middle Tennessee | Opponents |
|---|---|---|
| Scoring | ||
| Points | 316 | 359 |
| Points / Game | 26.3 | 29.9 |
| First Downs | ||
| Total | 247 | 278 |
| Rushing | 103 | 128 |
| Passing | 122 | 138 |
| Penalty | 22 | 12 |
| Rushing | ||
| Attempts | 404 | 473 |
| Yards | 2,063 | 2,328 |
| Yards / Carry | 5.1 | 4.9 |
| Yards / Game | 171.9 | 194.0 |
| Touchdowns | 18 | 19 |
| Passing | ||
| Attempts | 367 | 415 |
| Completions | 227 | 271 |
| Completion % | 61.9% | 65.3% |
| Yards | 2,837 | 3,184 |
| Yards / Attempt | 7.7 | 7.7 |
| Touchdowns | 22 | 23 |
| Interceptions | 9 | 8 |
| Passer Rating | 141.66 | 144.18 |
| Total Offense | ||
| Plays | 771 | 888 |
| Yards | 4,900 | 5,512 |
| Yards / Play | 6.4 | 6.2 |
| Yards / Game | 408.3 | 459.3 |
| Punt Returns | ||
| Returns | 4 | 21 |
| Yards | 11 | 143 |
| Average | 2.8 | 6.8 |
| Touchdowns | 0 | 1 |
| Kickoff Returns | ||
| Returns | 11 | 39 |
| Yards | 163 | 754 |
| Average | 14.8 | 19.3 |
| Touchdowns | 0 | 0 |
| Punting | ||
| Punts | 60 | 45 |
| Yards | 2,375 | 1,928 |
| Average | 39.6 | 42.8 |
| Interception Returns | ||
| Returns | 8 | 9 |
| Yards | 68 | 67 |
| Touchdowns | 1 | 0 |
| Fumbles | ||
| Fumbles | 10 | 14 |
| Lost | 5 | 9 |
| Penalties | ||
| Penalties | 57 | 68 |
| Yards | 511 | 563 |
| Yards / Game | 42.6 | 46.9 |
| Time of Possession | ||
| Per Game | 26:59 | 33:01 |
| Third Downs | ||
| Attempts | 148 | 179 |
| Conversions | 52 | 78 |
| Conversion % | 35.1% | 43.6% |
| Fourth Downs | ||
| Attempts | 17 | 29 |
| Conversions | 9 | 17 |
| Conversion % | 52.9% | 58.6% |
| Red Zone | ||
| Trips | 38 | 53 |
| Scores (TD + FG) | 34 | 40 |
| Score % | 89.5% | 75.5% |
| Touchdowns | 26 | 26 |
| TD % | 68.4% | 49.1% |
| Field Goals | ||
| Attempts | 14 | 26 |
| Made | 11 | 20 |
| Pct | 78.6% | 76.9% |
| PAT Kicking | ||
| Attempts | 37 | 41 |
| Made | 35 | 39 |
| Pct | 94.6% | 95.1% |
| Two-Point Conversions | ||
| Attempts | 4 | 2 |
| Made | 1 | 0 |
Official-stats conventions: rushing includes sacks as negative attempts (NCAA), so Total Offense = rush + pass. Red-zone Score % counts touchdowns and field goals per trip.