Fourth Down Data
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ORST

Oregon State

BeaversBalanced
Pac-12 Conference2-5#86 (-2.51)

Grades

Percentile grades against every FBS team this season — 99 is best. Curved so an average team reads C, not F.

33· DOverall
Offense
63· CRating
60· CPer play
75· BConsistency
31· DBig plays
Defense
18· DRating
5· FPer play
10· FConsistency
Situational
76· BRed-zone O
81· BRed-zone D
43· C3rd down O
26· D3rd down D
How grades work →

Analytical Fingerprint

SS-native team profile — opponent-adjusted and garbage-filtered EPA, success, and explosiveness.

Opp-Adj Offense
+0.009
Opp-Adj Defense
-0.048
higher = better
Offensive EPA/play
+0.044
Defensive EPA/play
+0.184
lower = better
Off Success Rate
49.3%
Def Success Rate
52.2%
allowed · lower = better
Explosive Rate
22.6%
pass EPA > 1.0 · rush > 0.8
Explosive Allowed
26.0%
lower = better
Net EPA/play
-0.139
net · higher = better
Recent EPA Trend
-0.022
last 3 weeks
Points / Drive
2.46

Special Teams

Opponent-adjusted special-teams component of the Final Rating, in expected points per game — positive = better. The four units sum to the net.

Net ST Rating
+0.20
expected pts/game
Kicking
-0.61
own kicking game
Kick Defense
+0.62
vs opponent kicks
Returns
+0.81
own return game
Return Defense
-0.62
vs opponent returns

Performance vs Perception

Our opponent-adjusted model rank vs. how others rate this team. Descriptive — where the model and the consensus disagree.

Model Rank
#86
opponent-adjusted strength
AP Poll
NR
—
Market (Vegas)
#94
model 8 higher
Recruiting Rank
—
no recruiting profile

Peer Context

Where Oregon State ranks among all FBS teams in 2020 (percentile).

Opp-adjusted offense
59th
Opp-adjusted defense
4th
Offensive EPA/play
61th
Defensive EPA/play
5th
Offensive success rate
75th
Explosiveness
31th
Defensive havoc
9th
Points per drive
65th

Historical Fingerprint

Most statistically similar team-seasons, 2017–2025, by the same 44-feature profile The Archive uses. Descriptive context, not a forecast.

1Middle Tennessee2019OA -0.023 / -0.088similar: pass defense, havoc rate, offensive EPA3702Toledo2019OA -0.001 / -0.123similar: defensive EPA, offensive EPA, takeaway rate3643Texas2021OA -0.054 / -0.022similar: TD drive rate, takeaway rate, offensive EPA3594UL Monroe2019OA +0.013 / -0.120similar: run defense, offensive success rate, rushing offense3595Texas State2020OA -0.012 / -0.051similar: defensive success rate, havoc rate, defensive EPA331

2020 Schedule & Results

7 games

WkOpponentScoreW/LSpreadATSTotalO/U
10vs Washington State28-38L-1.5L65.5O
11@ Washington21-27L+13.5W52.5U
12vs California31-27W+2.5W47O
13vs Oregon41-38W----
14@ Utah24-30L+11.0W51.5O
15vs Stanford24-27L+2.5L52.5U
16vs Arizona State33-46L+7.0L54O

Betting Profile

ATS Record
4-3
57.1%
O/U Record
5-2
71.4%
Straight Up
2-5
28.6%
Home ATS2-3
Away ATS2-0
Favorite ATS0-1
Underdog ATS4-2
Last 5 ATS
WWWLL
Full ATS log & splits →
Graded against consensus market lines (median across multiple sportsbooks). Games the market never lined — mostly early-season non-FBS matchups — are excluded from ATS and O/U records; individual games may grade differently than closing-line sources.

Situational Profile

Situational EPA percentile across 8 phases (the larger the shape, the more dominant). Within-FBS ranks.

Pass Off7thRush Off96thRed Zone Off77th3rd Down Off43thPass Def5thRush Def8thRed Zone Def82th3rd Down Def26th
SituationOFF EPAOFF RankDEF EPADEF Rank
Overall+0.04461th+0.1842th
Red Zone+0.13277th-0.14482th
Third Down+0.01843th+0.20026th
No Garbage Time+0.04461th+0.1844th
First Half+0.01852th+0.2202th
Second Half+0.06466th+0.14117th
Early Downs+0.09684th+0.1584th
Passing Downs-0.2637th+0.2785th
Standard Downs+0.18896th+0.1478th
Goal to Go+0.44093th-0.10372th

Style & Tendencies

Pass 47.5%Rush 52.5%
Havoc/Game
9.1
Havoc Rate
13.1%
TO Margin
-0.3
Explosive/G
15.9
Yards/Game
408.9
Pts/Drive
2.46
3rd Down%
40.4%
3&Out%
23.8%

Team Statistics

2020 season totals across 7 games — Oregon State vs. the combined line of every opponent in those games.
StatOregon StateOpponents
Scoring
Points202233
Points / Game28.933.3
First Downs
Total155155
Rushing7075
Passing7566
Penalty1014
Rushing
Attempts258274
Yards1,3831,523
Yards / Carry5.45.6
Yards / Game197.6217.6
Touchdowns1518
Passing
Attempts233203
Completions134128
Completion %57.5%63.1%
Yards1,4791,573
Yards / Attempt6.37.7
Touchdowns1110
Interceptions55
Passer Rating122.12139.47
Total Offense
Plays491477
Yards2,8623,096
Yards / Play5.86.5
Yards / Game408.9442.3
Punt Returns
Returns97
Yards171145
Average19.020.7
Touchdowns11
Kickoff Returns
Returns3018
Yards674357
Average22.519.8
Touchdowns00
Punting
Punts2926
Yards1,140950
Average39.336.5
Interception Returns
Returns55
Yards167
Touchdowns00
Fumbles
Fumbles96
Lost31
Penalties
Penalties4245
Yards342366
Yards / Game48.952.3
Time of Possession
Per Game27:5732:03
Third Downs
Attempts9990
Conversions4042
Conversion %40.4%46.7%
Fourth Downs
Attempts199
Conversions125
Conversion %63.2%55.6%
Red Zone
Trips2828
Scores (TD + FG)2525
Score %89.3%89.3%
Touchdowns2117
TD %75.0%60.7%
Field Goals
Attempts712
Made511
Pct71.4%91.7%
PAT Kicking
Attempts1925
Made1924
Pct100.0%96.0%
Two-Point Conversions
Attempts74
Made31
Official-stats conventions: rushing includes sacks as negative attempts (NCAA), so Total Offense = rush + pass. Red-zone Score % counts touchdowns and field goals per trip.
Compare to any opponent →Find similar matchups →Team identity →Situational splits →