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ULM
UL Monroe
WarhawksBalancedSun Belt Conference5-7#106 (-9.52)
Grades
Percentile grades against every FBS team this season — 99 is best. Curved so an average team reads C, not F.
21· DOverall
Offense
57· CRating
78· BPer play
80· BConsistency
79· BBig plays
Defense
10· FRating
13· FPer play
24· DConsistency
Situational
83· BRed-zone O
41· CRed-zone D
33· D3rd down O
52· C3rd down D
Analytical Fingerprint
SS-native team profile — opponent-adjusted and garbage-filtered EPA, success, and explosiveness.
Opp-Adj Offense
+0.013
Opp-Adj Defense
-0.120
higher = better
Offensive EPA/play
+0.093
Defensive EPA/play
+0.110
lower = better
Off Success Rate
48.4%
Def Success Rate
48.8%
allowed · lower = better
Explosive Rate
25.7%
pass EPA > 1.0 · rush > 0.8
Explosive Allowed
27.3%
lower = better
Net EPA/play
-0.016
net · higher = better
Recent EPA Trend
+0.099
last 3 weeks
Points / Drive
2.52
Special Teams
Opponent-adjusted special-teams component of the Final Rating, in expected points per game — positive = better. The four units sum to the net.
Net ST Rating
-1.49
expected pts/game
Kicking
+0.03
own kicking game
Kick Defense
-1.27
vs opponent kicks
Returns
-0.15
own return game
Return Defense
-0.09
vs opponent returns
Performance vs Perception
Our opponent-adjusted model rank vs. how others rate this team. Descriptive — where the model and the consensus disagree.
Model Rank
#106
opponent-adjusted strength
AP Poll
NR
—
Market (Vegas)
—
unavailable
Recruiting Rank
#75
recruiting 31 spots higher
0 blue-chip recruits
Peer Context
Where UL Monroe ranks among all FBS teams in 2019 (percentile).
Opp-adjusted offense57th
Opp-adjusted defense10th
Offensive EPA/play79th
Defensive EPA/play13th
Offensive success rate73th
Explosiveness80th
Defensive havoc13th
Points per drive72th
Historical Fingerprint
Most statistically similar team-seasons, 2017–2025, by the same 44-feature profile The Archive uses. Descriptive context, not a forecast.
1Toledo2018OA +0.098 / -0.100similar: offensive EPA, turnover rate, rushing offense3822South Alabama2025OA +0.027 / -0.099similar: turnover rate, havoc rate, defensive EPA3743Oregon State2020OA +0.009 / -0.048similar: run defense, offensive success rate, rushing offense3594Louisiana2017OA -0.058 / -0.169similar: havoc rate, defensive EPA, offensive EPA3485Oregon2021OA +0.003 / -0.012similar: rushing offense, defensive success rate, turnover rate346
2019 Schedule & Results
12 games
| Wk | Opponent | Score | W/L | Spread | ATS | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | vs Grambling State | 31-9 | W | -28.0 | L | 58.5 | U |
| 2 | @ Florida State | 44-45 | L | +22.5 | W | 65.5 | O |
| 4 | @ Iowa State | 20-72 | L | +17.0 | L | 51.5 | O |
| 5 | vs South Alabama | 30-17 | W | -14.5 | L | 59.5 | U |
| 6 | vs Memphis | 33-52 | L | +16.0 | L | 63.5 | O |
| 7 | @ Texas State | 24-14 | W | -3.5 | W | 60.5 | U |
| 8 | @ App State | 7-52 | L | +16.5 | L | 65.5 | U |
| 10 | vs Arkansas State | 41-48 | L | 0.0 | L | 69.5 | O |
| 11 | vs Georgia State | 45-31 | W | +3.0 | W | 77 | U |
| 12 | @ Georgia Southern | 29-51 | L | +6.5 | L | 57 | O |
| 13 | vs Coastal Carolina | 45-42 | W | -6.0 | L | 63.5 | O |
| 14 | @ Louisiana | 30-31 | L | +19.5 | W | 71 | U |
Betting Profile
ATS Record
4-8
33.3%
O/U Record
6-6
50.0%
Straight Up
5-7
41.7%
Home ATS1-5
Away ATS3-3
Favorite ATS1-3
Underdog ATS3-5
Last 5 ATS
LWLLW
Graded against consensus market lines (median across multiple sportsbooks). Games the market never lined — mostly early-season non-FBS matchups — are excluded from ATS and O/U records; individual games may grade differently than closing-line sources.
Situational Profile
Situational EPA percentile across 8 phases (the larger the shape, the more dominant). Within-FBS ranks.
| Situation | OFF EPA | OFF Rank | DEF EPA | DEF Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Overall | +0.078 | 74th | +0.108 | 10th |
| Red Zone | +0.179 | 84th | +0.026 | 41th |
| Third Down | -0.036 | 34th | +0.012 | 52th |
| No Garbage Time | +0.093 | 78th | +0.110 | 11th |
| First Half | +0.110 | 81th | +0.204 | 1th |
| Second Half | +0.046 | 63th | +0.005 | 54th |
| Early Downs | +0.111 | 89th | +0.097 | 9th |
| Passing Downs | +0.047 | 57th | +0.163 | 16th |
| Standard Downs | +0.095 | 84th | +0.082 | 13th |
| Goal to Go | -0.070 | 44th | +0.021 | 42th |
Style & Tendencies
Pass 47.4%Rush 52.6%
Havoc/Game
11.1
Havoc Rate
15.1%
TO Margin
0.0
Explosive/G
16.8
Yards/Game
460.9
Pts/Drive
2.52
3rd Down%
40.0%
3&Out%
21.3%
Team Statistics
2019 season totals across 12 games — UL Monroe vs. the combined line of every opponent in those games.
| Stat | UL Monroe | Opponents |
|---|---|---|
| Scoring | ||
| Points | 379 | 464 |
| Points / Game | 31.6 | 38.7 |
| First Downs | ||
| Total | 272 | 283 |
| Rushing | 120 | 157 |
| Passing | 131 | 105 |
| Penalty | 21 | 21 |
| Rushing | ||
| Attempts | 457 | 529 |
| Yards | 2,490 | 3,032 |
| Yards / Carry | 5.4 | 5.7 |
| Yards / Game | 207.5 | 252.7 |
| Touchdowns | 29 | 31 |
| Passing | ||
| Attempts | 411 | 336 |
| Completions | 245 | 207 |
| Completion % | 59.6% | 61.6% |
| Yards | 3,041 | 2,770 |
| Yards / Attempt | 7.4 | 8.2 |
| Touchdowns | 21 | 25 |
| Interceptions | 12 | 10 |
| Passer Rating | 132.78 | 149.46 |
| Total Offense | ||
| Plays | 868 | 865 |
| Yards | 5,531 | 5,802 |
| Yards / Play | 6.4 | 6.7 |
| Yards / Game | 460.9 | 483.5 |
| Punt Returns | ||
| Returns | 10 | 16 |
| Yards | 52 | 144 |
| Average | 5.2 | 9.0 |
| Touchdowns | 0 | 1 |
| Kickoff Returns | ||
| Returns | 38 | 25 |
| Yards | 621 | 524 |
| Average | 16.3 | 21.0 |
| Touchdowns | 0 | 1 |
| Punting | ||
| Punts | 56 | 52 |
| Yards | 2,440 | 2,283 |
| Average | 43.6 | 43.9 |
| Interception Returns | ||
| Returns | 10 | 12 |
| Yards | 167 | 238 |
| Touchdowns | 1 | 3 |
| Fumbles | ||
| Fumbles | 12 | 16 |
| Lost | 6 | 8 |
| Penalties | ||
| Penalties | 95 | 76 |
| Yards | 764 | 645 |
| Yards / Game | 63.7 | 53.8 |
| Time of Possession | ||
| Per Game | 29:25 | 30:35 |
| Third Downs | ||
| Attempts | 175 | 170 |
| Conversions | 70 | 72 |
| Conversion % | 40.0% | 42.4% |
| Fourth Downs | ||
| Attempts | 28 | 21 |
| Conversions | 16 | 11 |
| Conversion % | 57.1% | 52.4% |
| Red Zone | ||
| Trips | 51 | 47 |
| Scores (TD + FG) | 41 | 41 |
| Score % | 80.4% | 87.2% |
| Touchdowns | 32 | 32 |
| TD % | 62.7% | 68.1% |
| Field Goals | ||
| Attempts | 15 | 15 |
| Made | 9 | 13 |
| Pct | 60.0% | 86.7% |
| PAT Kicking | ||
| Attempts | 49 | 58 |
| Made | 44 | 57 |
| Pct | 89.8% | 98.3% |
| Two-Point Conversions | ||
| Attempts | 2 | 3 |
| Made | 1 | 1 |
Official-stats conventions: rushing includes sacks as negative attempts (NCAA), so Total Offense = rush + pass. Red-zone Score % counts touchdowns and field goals per trip.