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TOL
Toledo
RocketsBalancedMid-American Conference7-6#42 (+3.67)
Grades
Percentile grades against every FBS team this season — 99 is best. Curved so an average team reads C, not F.
68· COverall
Offense
80· BRating
78· BPer play
65· CConsistency
82· BBig plays
Defense
26· DRating
22· DPer play
22· DConsistency
Situational
35· DRed-zone O
8· FRed-zone D
13· F3rd down O
74· B3rd down D
Analytical Fingerprint
SS-native team profile — opponent-adjusted and garbage-filtered EPA, success, and explosiveness.
Opp-Adj Offense
+0.098
Opp-Adj Defense
-0.100
higher = better
Offensive EPA/play
+0.072
Defensive EPA/play
+0.074
lower = better
Off Success Rate
47.1%
Def Success Rate
48.1%
allowed · lower = better
Explosive Rate
25.3%
pass EPA > 1.0 · rush > 0.8
Explosive Allowed
24.9%
lower = better
Net EPA/play
-0.002
net · higher = better
Recent EPA Trend
+0.019
last 3 weeks
Points / Drive
2.71
Special Teams
Opponent-adjusted special-teams component of the Final Rating, in expected points per game — positive = better. The four units sum to the net.
Net ST Rating
+3.66
expected pts/game
Kicking
+0.16
own kicking game
Kick Defense
+3.18
vs opponent kicks
Returns
+0.31
own return game
Return Defense
+0.01
vs opponent returns
Performance vs Perception
Our opponent-adjusted model rank vs. how others rate this team. Descriptive — where the model and the consensus disagree.
Model Rank
#42
opponent-adjusted strength
AP Poll
NR
—
Market (Vegas)
—
unavailable
Recruiting Rank
#77
model 35 spots higher
0 blue-chip recruits
Peer Context
Where Toledo ranks among all FBS teams in 2018 (percentile).
Opp-adjusted offense86th
Opp-adjusted defense16th
Offensive EPA/play79th
Defensive EPA/play22th
Offensive success rate57th
Explosiveness83th
Defensive havoc63th
Points per drive84th
Historical Fingerprint
Most statistically similar team-seasons, 2017–2025, by the same 44-feature profile The Archive uses. Descriptive context, not a forecast.
1UL Monroe2019OA +0.013 / -0.120similar: offensive EPA, turnover rate, rushing offense3822Nebraska2018OA +0.111 / -0.034similar: rushing offense, defensive EPA, run defense3463Louisville2017OA +0.148 / -0.016similar: rushing offense, defensive success rate, pass defense3434Oklahoma2022OA +0.102 / +0.001similar: havoc rate, run defense, pass defense3395Arizona State2018OA +0.072 / -0.049similar: offensive EPA, havoc rate, defensive success rate339
2018 Schedule & Results
13 games
| Wk | Opponent | Score | W/L | Spread | ATS | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | vs VMI | 66-3 | W | -7.0 | L | 57.5 | O |
| 3 | vs Miami | 24-49 | L | +12.0 | L | 58 | O |
| 4 | vs Nevada | 63-44 | W | -10.5 | W | 67.5 | O |
| 5 | @ Fresno State | 27-49 | L | +10.0 | L | 61 | O |
| 6 | vs Bowling Green | 52-36 | W | -23.0 | L | 71 | O |
| 7 | @ Eastern Michigan | 26-28 | L | -2.0 | L | 62 | U |
| 8 | vs Buffalo | 17-31 | L | -3.0 | L | 63 | U |
| 9 | @ Western Michigan | 51-24 | W | +4.0 | W | 69 | O |
| 10 | vs Ball State | 45-13 | W | -19.5 | W | 64 | U |
| 11 | @ Northern Illinois | 15-38 | L | +3.5 | L | 54 | U |
| 12 | @ Kent State | 56-34 | W | -11.5 | W | 57.5 | O |
| 13 | vs Central Michigan | 51-13 | W | -19.0 | W | 58 | O |
| 17 | vs Florida International | 32-35 | L | - | - | - | - |
Betting Profile
ATS Record
5-7
41.7%
O/U Record
8-4
66.7%
Straight Up
6-6
50.0%
Home ATS3-4
Away ATS2-3
Favorite ATS4-4
Underdog ATS1-3
Last 5 ATS
WWLWW
Graded against consensus market lines (median across multiple sportsbooks). Games the market never lined — mostly early-season non-FBS matchups — are excluded from ATS and O/U records; individual games may grade differently than closing-line sources.
Situational Profile
Situational EPA percentile across 8 phases (the larger the shape, the more dominant). Within-FBS ranks.
| Situation | OFF EPA | OFF Rank | DEF EPA | DEF Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Overall | +0.054 | 71th | +0.046 | 29th |
| Red Zone | -0.035 | 36th | +0.274 | 8th |
| Third Down | -0.143 | 13th | -0.061 | 75th |
| No Garbage Time | +0.068 | 77th | +0.071 | 23th |
| First Half | +0.010 | 48th | +0.027 | 36th |
| Second Half | +0.104 | 85th | +0.067 | 28th |
| Early Downs | +0.086 | 89th | +0.086 | 14th |
| Passing Downs | +0.076 | 71th | +0.081 | 33th |
| Standard Downs | +0.043 | 69th | +0.029 | 32th |
| Goal to Go | +0.209 | 76th | +0.227 | 27th |
Style & Tendencies
Pass 42.6%Rush 57.4%
Havoc/Game
15.5
Havoc Rate
20.2%
TO Margin
+0.2
Explosive/G
14.4
Yards/Game
443.8
Pts/Drive
2.71
3rd Down%
36.9%
3&Out%
21.3%
Team Statistics
2018 season totals across 13 games — Toledo vs. the combined line of every opponent in those games.
| Stat | Toledo | Opponents |
|---|---|---|
| Scoring | ||
| Points | 525 | 397 |
| Points / Game | 40.4 | 30.5 |
| First Downs | ||
| Total | 299 | 287 |
| Rushing | 132 | 116 |
| Passing | 134 | 140 |
| Penalty | 33 | 31 |
| Rushing | ||
| Attempts | 532 | 496 |
| Yards | 2,807 | 2,304 |
| Yards / Carry | 5.3 | 4.6 |
| Yards / Game | 215.9 | 177.2 |
| Touchdowns | 30 | 31 |
| Passing | ||
| Attempts | 395 | 467 |
| Completions | 220 | 283 |
| Completion % | 55.7% | 60.6% |
| Yards | 2,963 | 3,316 |
| Yards / Attempt | 7.5 | 7.1 |
| Touchdowns | 32 | 20 |
| Interceptions | 11 | 12 |
| Passer Rating | 139.87 | 129.24 |
| Total Offense | ||
| Plays | 927 | 963 |
| Yards | 5,770 | 5,620 |
| Yards / Play | 6.2 | 5.8 |
| Yards / Game | 443.8 | 432.3 |
| Punt Returns | ||
| Returns | 36 | 11 |
| Yards | 474 | 121 |
| Average | 13.2 | 11.0 |
| Touchdowns | 3 | 1 |
| Kickoff Returns | ||
| Returns | 38 | 35 |
| Yards | 755 | 697 |
| Average | 19.9 | 19.9 |
| Touchdowns | 1 | 0 |
| Punting | ||
| Punts | 62 | 79 |
| Yards | 2,497 | 2,879 |
| Average | 40.3 | 36.4 |
| Interception Returns | ||
| Returns | 12 | 11 |
| Yards | 115 | 62 |
| Touchdowns | 2 | 1 |
| Fumbles | ||
| Fumbles | 17 | 20 |
| Lost | 7 | 9 |
| Penalties | ||
| Penalties | 99 | 100 |
| Yards | 931 | 922 |
| Yards / Game | 71.6 | 70.9 |
| Time of Possession | ||
| Per Game | 29:26 | 30:34 |
| Third Downs | ||
| Attempts | 176 | 195 |
| Conversions | 65 | 67 |
| Conversion % | 36.9% | 34.4% |
| Fourth Downs | ||
| Attempts | 20 | 23 |
| Conversions | 9 | 10 |
| Conversion % | 45.0% | 43.5% |
| Red Zone | ||
| Trips | 61 | 39 |
| Scores (TD + FG) | 48 | 34 |
| Score % | 78.7% | 87.2% |
| Touchdowns | 39 | 29 |
| TD % | 63.9% | 74.4% |
| Field Goals | ||
| Attempts | 20 | 13 |
| Made | 15 | 7 |
| Pct | 75.0% | 53.8% |
| PAT Kicking | ||
| Attempts | 66 | 50 |
| Made | 64 | 50 |
| Pct | 97.0% | 100.0% |
| Two-Point Conversions | ||
| Attempts | 3 | 4 |
| Made | 1 | 1 |
Official-stats conventions: rushing includes sacks as negative attempts (NCAA), so Total Offense = rush + pass. Red-zone Score % counts touchdowns and field goals per trip.